ICCO Revises 2024/25 Cocoa Outlook: Global Surplus Returns as Production Rebounds
| Metric | 2023/24 Actual | 2024/25 Previous Estimate | 2024/25 Revised Estimate | YOY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World production | 4.362 mln t | 4.698 mln t | 4.728 mln t | +366 kt / +8.4% (International Cocoa Organization) |
| World grindings | 4.810 mln t | 4.604 mln t | 4.606 mln t | −204 kt / −4.2% (International Cocoa Organization) |
| Surplus/(Deficit) | −492 kt | +49 kt | +75 kt | Surplus returns (International Cocoa Organization) |
| End-of-season stocks | 1.272 mln t | 1.324 mln t | 1.347 mln t | +75 kt / +5.9% (International Cocoa Organization) |
| Stocks/Grindings ratio | 26.4% | 28.8% | 29.2% | Higher buffer ratio (International Cocoa Organization) |
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has released its February 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, presenting revised supply and demand estimates for the 2024/25 cocoa season (October–September). The latest figures indicate a notable recovery in global production and a return to surplus conditions after the severe deficit recorded in 2023/24.
World cocoa production for 2024/25 has been revised upward to 4.728 million tonnes, compared to 4.698 million tonnes in the previous estimate and 4.362 million tonnes in 2023/24. This represents a year-on-year increase of 366,000 tonnes, or 8.4 percent. The upward revision reflects improved crop data from producing countries and suggests a meaningful rebound from last season’s weather-impacted output.
On the demand side, however, global grindings, a key proxy for cocoa consumption, are projected at 4.606 million tonnes. This is slightly above the prior estimate of 4.604 million tonnes but remains 204,000 tonnes lower than the 4.810 million tonnes recorded in 2023/24, marking a 4.2 percent year-on-year decline. The contraction in grindings points to softer processing activity, likely influenced by elevated cocoa prices and margin pressures within the chocolate manufacturing sector.
As a result of higher production and weaker grindings, the global cocoa market is now expected to record a surplus of 75,000 tonnes for 2024/25. This is a significant turnaround from the 492,000-tonne deficit registered in 2023/24 and slightly higher than the previously projected surplus of 49,000 tonnes. The shift back into surplus signals an easing of the extreme tightness that characterized the market during the prior season.
End-of-season global stocks are forecast to rise to 1.347 million tonnes, up from 1.272 million tonnes the previous year, an increase of 75,000 tonnes or 5.9 percent. Consequently, the stocks-to-grindings ratio is expected to improve to 29.2 percent, compared to 26.4 percent in 2023/24. This higher ratio suggests a modest rebuilding of the global supply buffer, although inventories remain historically sensitive relative to long-term averages.
The February 2026 ICCO bulletin confirms a transitional phase for the cocoa market. While production recovery has alleviated immediate supply stress, demand softness remains evident. The balance between rebuilding stocks and stabilizing grindings will be critical in determining price direction in the months ahead, particularly as traders assess weather developments and forward crop prospects in West Africa.
