Ivory Coast Forecasts 2025/26 Mid-Crop Production at 350,000 Tons
The government of Côte d’Ivoire has forecast its 2025/26 mid-crop cocoa production at 350,000 metric tons, a figure that immediately influences global supply expectations for the second half of the season. While the number may appear stabilizing at first glance, it does not represent a full recovery. Instead, it signals partial normalization in a market that remains structurally tight after multiple years of weather stress, disease pressure, and underinvestment.
The mid-crop, harvested between April and September, typically accounts for around one fifth to one quarter of Ivory Coast’s annual cocoa output. In strong production years, the mid-crop can exceed 400,000 tons. In weaker cycles, it falls significantly below that threshold due to Harmattan damage, poor rainfall distribution, and reduced pod development. A projection of 350,000 tons therefore sits in the middle range, neither crisis level nor abundant. It suggests some improvement compared to recent stressed seasons, but it does not signal a return to historical production strength.
Weather conditions have improved relative to the severe dryness seen in previous cycles, particularly during key flowering and pod setting periods. However, rainfall distribution remains uneven across producing regions, especially in western and central zones. Soil moisture recovery has been partial, and tree stress from prior seasons continues to limit yield potential. Cocoa trees do not immediately rebound after extreme weather events because biological recovery takes time. As a result, production elasticity remains constrained.
Structural issues also continue to weigh on output. A significant portion of Ivory Coast’s cocoa trees are aging, reducing productivity even when rainfall improves. Without large scale replanting and rehabilitation programs, yield ceilings remain capped. In addition, high fertilizer costs and limited farmer access to credit have reduced optimal farm management practices. Many producers are operating conservatively and prioritizing survival over yield maximization, which limits the upside potential of any single season.
From a market perspective, the 350,000 ton forecast reduces immediate panic but does not eliminate the underlying supply risk premium. This figure does not resolve the broader structural deficit narrative that has supported elevated cocoa prices. It simply prevents further deterioration. If the upcoming main crop underperforms or grind demand remains resilient, the mid-crop alone will not restore equilibrium.
Speculative positioning remains a key variable. Hedge funds and commodity trading advisors have played a significant role in cocoa volatility over the past two seasons. This forecast may trigger short term profit taking or tactical repositioning, but it is unlikely to justify a full bearish structural reversal. Physical supply tightness, particularly reflected in certified stocks and ICE warehouse movements, will ultimately determine sustained price direction.
