Weather Analysis Week 50 and 51

Past Week 50 Weather (December 7-13, 2025)

The RFE2 satellite data for December 7-13, 2025 shows moderate rainfall distribution across West Africa's primary cocoa zones:

Côte d'Ivoire: Cocoa-growing regions received 15-30mm of rainfall, with better coverage in the southern and western cocoa belt areas around Man, Soubré, and Daloa.

Ghana: The cocoa-growing zones in the Ashanti, Western, and Central regions recorded 10-25mm of rainfall over the same period.

Spatial Pattern: Coastal and southern cocoa zones received better rainfall compared to interior regions, which is typical for this transition period into the dry season.

Agricultural Significance: This moderate precipitation provided important soil moisture recharge to support cocoa vegetation through the remaining development phase before the main harvest season.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/fcsts_wafrica.shtml

Current Week 51 Forecast (December 15-21, 2025)

The latest NOAA GFS Week 1 forecast (valid December 15, 2025) shows significant rainfall expected across Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire:

Côte d'Ivoire: The forecast indicates 30-60mm of rainfall across the cocoa-growing belt, shown by the darker green coloring on the forecast map. This represents substantial precipitation that will significantly recharge soil moisture.

Ghana: Cocoa zones are expected to receive 20-40mm of rainfall during Week 1, with better coverage across the Ashanti, Western, and Central regions. The green shading demonstrates meaningful rainfall distribution across these key producing areas.

Coastal Regions: Abidjan and coastal zones show even heavier potential rainfall (60-90mm possible), indicated by the darker green to light blue coloring, suggesting organized moisture systems may develop.

Northern Regions: Interior and northern areas remain drier (light green, 10-20mm), maintaining the Harmattan influence in those zones.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/cpci/data/00/fcsts_wafrica.shtml

Temperature and Humidity Outlook

• Daytime temperatures: 28-32°C (cooler than recent days due to cloud cover and rainfall)
• Nighttime lows: 20-23°C
• Relative humidity: 75-85% (elevated due to precipitation and cloud cover)
• Wind: Light to moderate Harmattan, though moisture presence suggests some wind weakening

Agricultural Implications for Cocoa

Positive Impacts:

• Substantial soil moisture recharge (30-60mm in Côte d'Ivoire, 20-40mm in Ghana) will significantly benefit cocoa vegetation
• Extended growing season support for pod development and maturation
• Relief from moisture stress that would otherwise accelerate soil drying
• Cooler, cloudier conditions reduce evapotranspiration stress on plants
• Favorable conditions for reducing water deficit impacts on pod development

Concerns to Monitor:

• Potential fungal disease pressure may increase with high humidity (75-85%) and prolonged wetness
• Black pod disease risk could elevate if rainfall remains intense and soil stays saturated
• Operational challenges for harvest and drying activities if rainfall persists
• Flooding risks in lower-lying areas and poorly drained soils, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire's southern and western regions

Disease and Pest Management Considerations

The forecast rain and elevated humidity create conditions favoring:

• Frosty pod rot and black pod disease proliferation in Côte d'Ivoire
• Fungal pod diseases in Ghana's humid cocoa zones
• Pest pressure from insects that thrive in warm, wet conditions
• Post-harvest spoilage risks if drying becomes difficult due to persistent moisture

Farmers should prioritize fungicide applications and ensure adequate pod ventilation where feasible.

Summary

The past week's 15-30mm rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and 10-25mm in Ghana (December 7-13) provided important soil moisture input. However, the current week (December 15-21) shows a dramatic shift toward substantial rainfall with the NOAA forecast calling for 30-60mm in Côte d'Ivoire and 20-40mm in Ghana. This represents a significant moisture influx that will substantially benefit cocoa plants but requires monitoring for increased disease pressure and flooding risks in vulnerable areas. The forecasted conditions deviate notably from typical December dry season patterns, suggesting unusual atmospheric circulation patterns are favoring moisture transport into the region.