Week 47 Cocoa Market Overview
New York March 2026 cocoa fell about 5.1% on the week, from $5,436 on Monday to $5,159 on Friday. London March 2026 dropped roughly 5.0%, from £4,084 to £3,879.
The decline was driven entirely by tariffs, EUDR headlines and forced liquidation — while supply conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana got worse.
17 November — Tariff shock, heavy selling
- U.S. decision to waive cocoa import tariffs triggered immediate algorithmic sell programs.
- Market traded purely on macro headlines.
- Field conditions unchanged: crop stress in Ivory Coast and disease pressure in Ghana persisted but were ignored.
- First early-week signs that exporters were struggling with weaker differentials.
18 November — Small rebound, first supply rumours
- Oversold bounce in both New York and London.
- Fresh rumours began circulating about possible temporary sales suspensions in West Africa due to unacceptable bulk prices and collapsing differentials.
- Farm-gate feedback pointed to worsening pod counts, especially in the drier central regions of Ivory Coast.
- Market continued to misprice tightening fundamentals.
19 November — Aggressive liquidation after EUDR delay
- The confirmed one-year delay of the EU’s EUDR rule triggered another round of forced liquidation.
- London Mar-26 fell more than £250 intraday; New York Mar-26 collapsed toward $5,100.
- The selloff was mechanical: none of the EUDR news changed the actual physical constraints.
- Meanwhile, arrivals remained weak and exporters privately reported ongoing difficulties sourcing consistent bean quality.
- This was the most fundamentally misaligned day of the entire week.
20 November — Fundamentals fight back
- Market rebounded after Ivorian officials acknowledged:
- A third consecutive smaller main crop,
- Roughly 30% fewer expected Jan–Mar arrivals,
- A weaker mid-crop outlook if Harmattan intensifies.
- This was the first day all week where fundamentals actually impacted the tape.
- Moisture deficits persisted, and flowering in parts of the east and centre showed clear stress.
21 November — Expiration noise masks deeper issues
- New York Mar-26 finished at $5,159, dragged by expiry flows and thin liquidity.
- But the underlying picture remained unchanged:
- Arrivals still far below last year,
- Quality issues building due to uneven drying,
- Harmattan risk not priced at all,
- Ivory Coast’s structural production decline now undeniable.
A headline-driven week. Fundamentals were deteriorating the entire time.Weekly Summary Box
Weather and Harmattan
Weather conditions across Ivory Coast and Ghana worsened through the week, with the short rains cutting off earlier than normal and soil-moisture levels dropping faster than seasonal averages. Daytime temperatures ran hotter, nighttime cooling was sharper, and humidity swings grew more violent — all classic precursors to early Harmattan onset. Several production zones in central and northern Côte d’Ivoire already experienced the first dry northeast wind pulses and slight increases in airborne dust, signaling a shift in the regional air mass pattern. These early indicators matter because Harmattan brings low humidity, hot dry winds, and rapid moisture loss that shrink bean size, stress flowers, and weaken mid-crop formation. The centre-east and centre-west of Côte d’Ivoire saw the strongest moisture deficits, with canopy thinning and higher cherelle-wilt risk, while Ghana showed a mixed pattern: Western Region kept some moisture, but Volta, Eastern, and Ashanti ran noticeably hotter and drier. The combination of declining soil moisture, early dust intrusion, and sustained heat raises the probability of a smaller, more stressed mid-crop and further compresses main-crop bean size. In short, weather moved decisively in the wrong direction for production, even as the futures market ignored it.
Weekly Summary Box
| Metric | Monday | Friday | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mar-26 | $5,436 | $5,159 | –5.1% |
| London Mar-26 | £4,084 | £3,879 | –5.0% |
| US Certified Stocks | 1.76 million bags | 1.73 million bags | –26k bags |
| UK Certified Stocks | 0.53 million bags | 0.57 million bags | +31k bags |
| Ivory Coast Arrivals (CCC) | 516k tons | — | +105k vs previous week (411k), a +25.5% weekly increase, but still –6.0% below the same week last year (549k) |
| West Africa Production Outlook | Smaller main crop | Smaller main crop | No improvement |
Market Sentiment
Speculators spent the week trading headlines instead of fundamentals: managed money increased short exposure on the EUDR delay and tariff noise, while commercial hedging activity stayed muted. The positioning now leans mildly short, meaning the market is vulnerable to any upside surprise in arrivals, weather deterioration, or early Harmattan signals. In short: sentiment is bearish on paper, but fragile — and the underlying fundamentals do not justify the level of pessimism.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email cocoatradeblog@gmail.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
