Week 48 Cocoa Market Overview
New York March 2026 cocoa posted a modest but meaningful recovery this week, bouncing off the $5,000–$5,050 support band as tightening fundamentals and aggressive short-covering lifted prices. London followed, helped by concentrated liquidity on Thursday when it became the sole active venue due to the US holiday. Despite the late-week surge, overall participation remained inconsistent, and the market still lacks full conviction — though the ICCO’s sharply reduced surplus estimate injected genuine bullish pressure. The underlying picture is now clearer: fundamentals are tightening, weather risks are rising, and speculative shorts remain exposed.
Daily / Weekly Market Narrative
24 November — Divergence between NY and London; defensive tone
- As of November 23, cumulative arrivals since the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1 reached 618,000 metric tons, according to exporters — down 3.9% year-on-year from the same point last season.
- Field surveys continue to show that the 2025/26 tree crop is not materially better than last year, and may even be slightly weaker, given earlier dry-season stress. For now, however, rainfall in November has helped stabilize pod development and maintain farmer confidence, delaying any bullish supply concerns.
- The United States has officially removed the 15% import tariff previously levied on Ghanaian cocoa and agricultural exports.
- Peru continues to emerge as a meaningful secondary contributor to the global cocoa balance. The 2024/25 season closed with a record 202,345 tons, an 11% year-on-year increase.
25 November — Intraday recoveries with no conviction; Ecuador shifts global balance
- TRS reports below-average canopy conditions and only average bloom development in Côte d’Ivoire — a combination that typically precedes weaker mid-season output.
- TRS highlights similar agronomic constraints in Ghana, where below-average canopy quality could limit yields, although the official 2025/26 production forecast remains unchanged at 519,000 tons.
- Exporters now expect a noticeable slowdown in Ivorian arrivals starting in December, reinforcing earlier CCC comments about a potential volume drop during Q1 2026.
- CRA has flagged an unfavorable outlook for the start of Ghana’s mid-crop.
26 November — Sideways chop on low liquidity; weather delays vs EUDR delay
- European Parliament formally backed a one-year postponement and simplification of the EU Deforestation Regulation.
- LSEG Weather Warning
– Heavy rain delaying harvest in Ghana and eastern Côte d’Ivoire
– Muddy roads → slower deliveries
– Market paying attention to this - Market effectively stalled, waiting for a narrative catalyst.
27 November — London rallies as sole price-setter; weather concerns intensify
- With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, London became the only active venue, concentrating liquidity.
- Weather concerns rose sharply:
– Persistent rainfall across Ghana and eastern Côte d’Ivoire
– Threat of delayed arrivals
– Transport issues (mud, washed-out routes)
– Increasing risk of bean-quality deterioration - Delayed Harmattan onset left pods exposed to fungal pressure → adds medium-term risk.
28 November — Sharp rally on tightening fundamentals and ICCO surplus cut
- Cocoa surged as traders responded to tightening fundamentals and aggressive short-covering.
- ICCO’s quarterly report delivered a shock:
– Global 2024/25 surplus slashed from 142k MT → 49k MT
– Production outlook trimmed
Weekly Summary Box
| Metric | Monday (start of week) | Friday (end of week) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mar-26 | $5,159 | $5,550 | +7.6% (+$391) |
| London Mar-26 | £3,887 | £4,117 | +5.9% (+£230) |
| US Certified Stocks | 1,733,345 bags | 1,711,039 bags | –22,306 bags (–1.29%) |
| UK Certified Stocks | 565,000 bags | 605,000 bags | +40,000 bags (+7.08%) |
| Ivory Coast Arrivals (CCC) | 516,000 MT | 618,000 MT | +102,000 MT (+19.8%) |
| West Africa Production Outlook | Weather-stressed | Weather-stressed | No meaningful improvement |
Market Sentiment
Speculative positioning remains bearish on paper but fragile in practice.
London’s speculative short book — now 22,748 contracts, the largest since August 2021 — is increasingly vulnerable to weather shocks.
Short-covering drove most of the week’s rallies, but true end-user demand remains cautious and selective, especially given concerns about bean size and quality in early arrivals.
Commercial hedging remains light due to tight forward availability and producer liquidity stress in West Africa.
Overall, sentiment is transitioning from bearish → neutral, but still lacks the conviction required for a durable uptrend.
One meaningful surprise (arrivals, weather, or ICCO revisions) could trigger a rapid upside re-pricing.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
