New York March 2026 cocoa continued its recovery this week, rising from $5,550 to $5,694, as tightening physical supply and persistent short-covering kept upward pressure on prices despite weak liquidity and uneven participation. London remained the laggard, slipping from £4,117 to £4,067, reflecting local selling, weaker technical structure, and less aggressive short-covering compared with New York.

The divergence between the two markets highlighted a familiar dynamic: traders continue to underestimate the structural tightness emerging from West Africa. Arrivals surged early in the week, but weather, agronomic stress, and regulatory bottlenecks remain firmly in place. ICCO’s tight surplus estimate (49,000 tonnes) is increasingly seen as the more accurate baseline, with independent analyses suggesting deeper deficits.

Overall, sentiment is shifting again — reluctantly — toward the view that the supply situation is tightening faster than the market had priced in.

1 December — Arrivals surge; rainfall supports tree health

• Farmers across key West African regions reported that last week’s combination of strong rainfall + sunshine strengthened trees and improved pod development for the February–March harvest.
• Ivory Coast cumulative arrivals reached 718,000 MT, up sharply from 618,000 MT the previous week — a significant week on week gain.
• While arrivals remain seasonally healthy, field observations still show weaker canopy recovery compared to historical norms, which limits medium-term potential.

2 December — Strong rainfall; CCC imposes transport restrictions

• Rainfall remained above average across major producing regions, supporting moisture retention and pod development in Côte d’Ivoire. The consistent rainfall stabilizes the main crop but raises concern about Harmattan timing, which remains the key seasonal risk.
• The Ivorian cocoa regulator (CCC) began restricting transport permits to align truck flow with factory unloading capacity. This reduced port congestion but tightened near-term supply availability, increasing logistical delays.
• Commerzbank stressed that the ICCO’s 49,000 ton surplus confirms that the market remains structurally tight. They argued that the recent price collapse was significantly overstated relative to fundamentals and that such a small surplus does not justify the scale of the sell-off seen in recent months.

3 December — NY stabilizes, London weakens; rainfall continues above normal

• Rainfall stayed above average across Côte d’Ivoire, supporting pod development, though Harmattan timing remains the decisive variable for bean size.
• CCC’s permit restrictions continued to reshape physical flow, tightening availability despite strong headline arrivals.
• Market awareness of supply tightness increased, though no aggressive buying emerged.

4 December — Lack of new fundamentals; markets tread water

• Thursday trading was largely technical and low volume, with no meaningful new fundamental catalysts.
• Market participants focused on rainfall patterns and expected Harmattan onset, but no price moving news arrived.

5 December — Major grind data release; deep agronomic stress confirmed

• Côte d’Ivoire grindings for Nov 2024–Nov 2025 totaled 100,771 tonnes,
  down 19,095 tonnes (–7.6%) YoY, but up 50% vs October — showing strong near-term processing despite structural tightness.
• Tree canopies in both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have not recovered from prior environmental stress.
• Pod development in Côte d’Ivoire is at 20-year lows.
• Farm maintenance remains weak, worsening yield risk.
• Ghana forecasts diverge sharply:
  • EAS: 750,000 tonnes (likely unrealistic)
  • CRA: ~550,000 tonnes
  • TRS: 519,000 tonnes (most credible based on field conditions)
• CRA cut its 2024/25 outlook by 33,000 tonnes → 8,000-ton deficit.
• TRS cut its estimate by 46,000 tonnes → 41,000-ton surplus, also reducing 2025/26 to 107,000 tonnes.
• ICCO did not update 2025/26 guidance.
• EUDR ruling expected mid-month.
• BCOM rebalancing expected to add 35,000–40,000 contracts to exchange open interest in early January.

Weather and Harmattan

Rainfall remained above average throughout Week 49, delivering much-needed moisture across Ivory Coast and Ghana. This provided short term stabilization for pod development, but also delayed the transition into Harmattan conditions.

Soil moisture retention improved, but canopy recovery remains historically weak, limiting potential for the February–March harvest. Early Harmattan indicators (dust pulses, humidity collapse, nighttime cooling) were mostly absent this week, but this delay increases fungal and disease pressure, especially in wetter regions.

Overall:

• Short-term positive: moisture aid
• Medium-term negative: poor canopy, weak pod set, elevated fungal risk
• Long-term risk: Harmattan onset could quickly reverse moisture gains

Weekly Summary Box

Cocoa Calendar

Cocoa market analysis with zero sugar-coating.

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.