Cocoa Weekly Market Report - Week 50 (8–12 December 2025)

New York March 2026 cocoa continued to see elevated price volatility and mixed positioning this week, with futures consolidating after a sharp rally and key technical resistance holding below the December expiry. Both New York and London markets traded in range-bound patterns, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about near-term physical supply and the curve structure of the cocoa futures complex. Volumes remained decent, indicating continued participation rather than simple liquidation, but prices struggled to build sustained directional momentum. Attention increasingly shifted toward contract expiry flows, delivery logistics, and how the physical curve will clear ahead of mid-December deadlines. Sentiment is cautious, with the market oscillating between supply concerns and technical resistance.

8 December — Panic among buyers and intermediaries in Ivory Coast

• Reuters reported that Ivory Coast ports had reached about 803,000 MT of cumulative arrivals as of 7 December, down roughly 2% from the same point last season, and that this was causing some anxiety among buyers and intermediaries. CocoaIntel
• Despite light rains and warm conditions supporting pods maturing for February–March, fears about the approaching Harmattan and handling logistics increased stress in the market.
• Bloomberg noted that falling terminal prices were contributing to nervous behavior among origin buyers.
• Mars has secured unconditional EU approval for its $36 billion acquisition of Kellanova

9 December — First crack in Ivory Coast arrivals as futures rip higher

• This “first crack” in arrival flows raised concerns that the tail of the main crop may underperform relative to earlier expectations, underpinned by continued weak farm maintenance and labor availability in Côte d’Ivoire.
• Futures delivered strong upside moves as traders priced in potential supply compression ahead.
• The EU’s political agreement to postpone EUDR implementation by 12 months removes immediate compliance pressure but does nothing to fix structural production problems in West Africa.

10 December — March New York breaks above $6,200

• Cocoa futures extended their rally, with New York March contracts closing above $6,200, while London prices approached higher resistance levels near £4,500.
• Traders also highlighted the potential impact of Bloomberg Commodity Index inclusion, which could add open interest and speculative flows in early January.

11 December — Cocoa futures consolidated

• After two strong sessions, both New York and London futures consolidated higher gains on Thursday, with elevated volumes suggesting participation remained robust.
• A European Union warning to Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire about reforms in their cocoa sectors placed added pressure on fundamentals — signaling that failure to modernize could risk market share.
• Ghana has announced a ban on mining in forest reserves.
• ESG scrutiny and regulatory pressure are intensifying, adding longer-term uncertainty to compliant cocoa supply, particularly into Europe.
• In the UK, certain Nestlé chocolate bars have reportedly lost their legal classification as “chocolate” due to recipe changes.

12 December — Consolidation deepens as curve structure sends mixed signals

• Cocoa futures ended mixed on Friday, with the week’s sharp rally losing some steam below key resistance zones, highlighting a pause in momentum heading into December expiry.
• Volumes cooled slightly from midweek highs but stayed elevated compared with typical consolidation phases, indicating solid engagement rather than capitulation.
• Market focus shifted toward curve structure dynamics — specifically how prompt-month and deferred spreads will behave as the December contract approaches expiry and delivery logistics become central to pricing.

Weather & Harmattan

Weather across West Africa remained a key supply driver this week. In Ivory Coast, light rainfall and mild weather continued to support ongoing pod development and moisture retention, but agronomic conditions did not suggest a substantially improved production outlook. Recent precipitation has been enough to sustain tree health, but it also delays the onset of Harmattan, leaving cocoa pods vulnerable to humidity-driven diseases and fungal pressures if dry winds arrive late. Overall, the weather picture continues to underline structural risk to main and mid-crop prospects — a backdrop that keeps traders mindful of potential upside supply shocks.

Weekly Summary Box

Market Sentiment

Sentiment this week remained mixed and cautious. After a sharp rally earlier in the month, futures entered a consolidation phase, reflecting uncertainty about whether the recent gains have enough fundamental backing. Elevated volumes during the midweek breakout attempts suggested legitimate participation rather than simple erratic trading, but the inability to extend beyond key resistance levels tempered enthusiasm.

Speculators are carefully watching the contract curve structure ahead of the December expiry, and delivery-flow expectations are increasingly factored into positioning. While short-covering drove much of the prior advance, the current consolidation shows market participants are balancing supply concerns (weather, arrivals, labor issues) with technical resistance and mixed structural signals. As a result, sentiment sits transitioning from bullish momentum to a defensive neutral bias, waiting for clear direction from arrival data, curve dynamics, and regulatory cues.