Cocoa Extends Modest Rebound as Supply Risks Rise Despite Surplus Outlook (April 29, 2026)

• Cocoa futures extended their recovery on 29-Apr
• StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus forecast to 149,000 tons from 267,000 tons (≈-44% revision)
• For 2025/26, StoneX maintains a 247,000-ton surplus
• Field-level data signals weakening input conditions: ~73% of Ivorian farmers have not secured fertilizer

Cocoa futures extended their recovery on 29-Apr, with New York prices rising by approximately +0.9% to +1.2% across the curve, while London posted more modest gains of around +0.3% to +0.6%.

StoneX introduced a notable adjustment to the forward supply outlook by cutting its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus forecast to 149,000 tons from 267,000 tons previously, a reduction of roughly 44%. This revision reflects growing concern over supply-side risks, particularly weather-related factors such as the potential intensification of El Niño conditions. While the market remains in a surplus regime on paper, the magnitude of the downward revision is significant and reduces the buffer previously assumed for the next crop cycle, tightening the forward balance relative to earlier expectations.

For the current 2025/26 season, StoneX continues to project a surplus of 247,000 tons, indicating that near-term availability is still relatively comfortable. However, the contrast between the current season and the revised forward outlook highlights a deteriorating supply trajectory, where excess supply is expected to narrow meaningfully into the following year. This shift is important from a pricing perspective, as markets tend to price forward risks early, even if prompt fundamentals remain less constrained.

Additional field-level data reinforces this more cautious outlook. A Reuters survey indicates that approximately 73% of farmers in Ivory Coast have not purchased fertilizer for the next two growing seasons, while only 2% report having adequate input coverage. This points to a structurally weaker input cycle, which historically translates into lower yields and reduced productivity, especially when combined with adverse weather conditions. The situation is further compounded by projections of a ~4.8% decline in production for 2026, suggesting that the supply base may weaken even without extreme disruptions.

Weather remains a key uncertainty. Reports of persistent dry conditions in Ivory Coast, particularly during the flowering stage, introduce downside risks to yield potential. If dryness continues or intensifies, the impact could extend beyond marginal losses and begin to affect the overall crop profile more materially. In this context, the combination of reduced input usage and weather stress creates a layered risk structure, where multiple factors simultaneously pressure future supply.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

Across the New York curve, gains compress into a narrow +31 to +42 point range (roughly +0.9% to +1.2%). This is materially slower than the prior session’s move, indicating that the initial impulse seen on 28-Apr is not being reinforced with the same intensity. The market is still bid, but the rate of repricing is decelerating.

In terms of curve structure, the gradient remains relatively shallow. Jul-26 through Mar-27 show only marginal differences in performance, and the front-end no longer materially outperforms. This suggests the rebound is not being driven by a sharp re-pricing of near-term physical tightness, but rather by a more general repositioning across maturities. The absence of strong front-led convexity typically indicates that fundamental stress at the prompt end is not intensifying, at least not in a way that forces the curve higher.

London Cocoa (C)

The London market reinforces this interpretation. Gains there are noticeably smaller, in the +8 to +16 point range (+0.3% to +0.6%), and distributed evenly across the curve. This muted and symmetric profile contrasts with New York’s slightly stronger performance and points to USD-denominated speculative flow as the dominant driver rather than a synchronized global fundamental shift. The inter-market divergence suggests that participation remains uneven, with London lagging rather than confirming.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York Cocoa (CC)

• EFP: 74 lots
• EFS: 0
• Spread volume: 11,927 lots

This is a spread-dominated session. The overwhelming majority of activity is in calendar spreads rather than outright futures or physical-linked instruments. The relatively small EFP volume indicates limited physical hedging or conversion between futures and cash positions, which is typically where you would expect to see stronger participation if the move were fundamentally driven by physical tightness. The complete absence of EFS reinforces that no significant OTC swap-related flow is influencing price formation.

London Cocoa (C)

• EFP: 903 lots
• EFS: 1,309 lots
• Spread volume: 14,520 lots

In London, spreads remain the dominant component of activity, but EFP and EFS volumes are meaningfully higher than in New York, indicating a greater presence of physical-linked hedging (via EFP) and some participation from swap or structured flows (via EFS). Despite this broader mix of flow types, spreads still account for the majority of volume, suggesting that while the participant base is more balanced, the market is still primarily driven by curve management and positioning adjustments rather than outright directional conviction.

US–UK July Spread

$3,405 − (£2547 x 1.347$/£) =$-26ton (up from $-62)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

The New York market shows a clear transition from an initial rebound supported by some position building (27-Apr) into a move increasingly driven by short covering (28-Apr), as evidenced by rising prices alongside slightly declining open interest. By 29-Apr, the continuation higher occurs on declining volume, and with open interest unavailable, the signal becomes less precise but still consistent with low-participation follow-through rather than fresh long entry. Combined with the dominance of spread trading and minimal EFP activity, the price action is best characterized as a technically driven recovery led by position adjustment, lacking the volume and participation required for a sustained directional trend.

London Cocoa (C)

The London market presents a more gradual and stable structure, with open interest increasing steadily into 27-Apr, indicating ongoing position accumulation during the base phase. The subsequent price rise on 28-Apr, paired with a slight dip in open interest, suggests moderate short covering within an already established position base. On 29-Apr, volume increases slightly but price gains remain muted, and with no open interest data, the session appears as incremental continuation rather than expansion. Despite somewhat higher EFP and EFS activity compared to New York, spreads still dominate, indicating that the market is primarily engaged in curve management and rebalancing, not a strong shift in directional conviction.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

For tomorrow, the market is most likely to trade in a range with a slight upward bias, but without strong momentum. Price is consolidating after the recent rebound and holding above short-term support, which supports stability, but the lack of volume and neutral momentum indicators suggest that follow-through will be limited. The session is expected to be choppy, with price oscillating between 3380–3400 support and 3435–3450 resistance. Any attempt to break above resistance will likely face initial rejection unless accompanied by a clear pickup in volume, while a move below support could trigger a quicker downside move toward the mid-3300s. This is expected to be a consolidation session rather than a directional trend day, with price action driven more by technical levels than strong new positioning.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.