Cocoa Futures Consolidated as Markets Awaited Grinding Data (15 July 2026)
Correction: There was an error in the Ivory Coast grinding calculations.
Cocoa futures entered a consolidation phase on Wednesday after Tuesday's sharp rebound, with both New York and London markets trading in relatively contained ranges. In New York, the September 2026 contract settled at 5,916, down 20 points (-0.34%) from the previous session, after briefly approaching the psychologically important 6,000 level before encountering renewed selling pressure. Despite the rejection at higher levels, prices remained comfortably above key technical support, indicating that buyers continued to defend recent gains. In London, the September 2026 contract closed at 4,354, up 10 points (+0.23%), recovering modestly from Tuesday's decline but lacking sufficient momentum to challenge nearby resistance.
Weather
The seven-day weather outlook indicates relatively dry conditions across the core cocoa-growing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, with only light and scattered rainfall expected. Following the widespread precipitation received in recent weeks, the drier weather should help reduce excess soil moisture and limit the spread of moisture-related fungal diseases, creating favourable conditions for the development of the upcoming main crop. Meanwhile, heavier rainfall is forecast to persist across parts of Guinea, Liberia, southern Nigeria and Cameroon. Overall, the forecast appears supportive of crop development in the two largest cocoa-producing countries and is unlikely to pose a significant weather-related risk over the coming week.
Fundamental news flow remained limited throughout Wednesday's session, leaving the market largely driven by technical factors and position adjustments. Market participants appeared reluctant to establish significant new positions ahead of the release of the European Cocoa Association's Q2 grinding data,
Grindings
The European Cocoa Association (ECA) reported that Q2 cocoa grindings declined by 4.6% year-on-year to 316,366 tonnes, reinforcing concerns that elevated cocoa prices continue to weigh on processing activity in Europe. However, the European figures alone do not necessarily reflect the broader global demand picture.
Outside Europe, the picture was considerably stronger. U.S. grindings are estimated to have remained broadly unchanged during the quarter, while Ivory Coast officially reported Q2 grindings of 161,000 tonnes, up from 125,000 tonnes in the same period last year, reflecting the country's continued investment in domestic processing capacity. Asian grindings are estimated to have increased by around 7%, supported by ongoing capacity expansions, while Brazil is also estimated to have recorded another solid increase in processing activity.
| Region | Q2 2025 (t) | Q2 2026 (t) | YoY Change | Change (t) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 331,762 | 316,366 | -4.6% | -15,396 | Actual |
| USA | 101,865 | 101,865 | 0.0% | 0 | Prediction |
| Ivory Coast | 125,000 | 161,000 | +28.8% | +36,000 | Actual |
| Asia | 179,618 | 192,191 | +7.0% | +12,573 | Prediction |
| Brazil | 45,740 | 49,710 | +8.7% | +3,970 | Prediction |
| Estimated Total | 784,985 | 821,132 | +4.6% | +36,147 | Actual + Predictions |
Cocoa Intel
Cocoa Intel
Futures Performance
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Contract | 14-Jul | 15-Jul | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | 5,936 | 5,916 | -20 (-0.34%) |
| Dec-26 | 6,070 | 6,061 | -9 (-0.15%) |
| Mar-27 | 6,155 | 6,154 | -1 (-0.02%) |
| May-27 | 6,141 | 6,131 | -10 (-0.16%) |
Although your 14 July report highlighted a strong recovery into the close, the following session gave back only a small portion of those gains. Losses were modest across the curve, ranging from just 1 point in Mar-27 to 20 points in Sep-26, suggesting profit-taking rather than renewed aggressive selling. The curve remained relatively stable, with deferred contracts showing particularly limited movement. These figures are consistent with the official ICE daily report and market data.
London Cocoa (C)
| Contract | 14-Jul | 15-Jul | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | 4,344 | 4,354 | +10 (+0.23%) |
| Dec-26 | 4,395 | 4,403 | +8 (+0.18%) |
| Mar-27 | 4,448 | 4,456 | +8 (+0.18%) |
| May-27 | 4,435 | 4,444 | +9 (+0.20%) |
London cocoa therefore recovered modestly on 15 July, with the major contracts closing 8–10 points above their 14 July levels. Gains were consistent across the forward curve, indicating a mild broad-based rebound rather than movement concentrated in one maturity.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
New York Cocoa (CC)
- EFP: 152 contracts
- EFS: 15 contracts
- Spread Volume: 29,627 contracts
- Outright Volume: 45,074 contracts
Spread activity represented roughly 66% of outright futures volume, indicating that traders were actively repositioning along the forward curve rather than simply expressing directional views. EFP activity remained relatively modest, suggesting limited physical exchange activity, while EFS volume was negligible.
London Cocoa (C)
- EFP: 2,168 contracts
- EFS: 237 contracts
- Spread Volume: 17,551 contracts
- Outright Volume: 27,504 contracts
London recorded substantially higher EFP activity than New York, highlighting stronger commercial participation and physical hedging. EFS volume was also noticeably higher, reflecting greater OTC swap-related activity. Spread trading remained very active, amounting to approximately 64% of outright volume, indicating that traders were actively adjusting calendar positions.
US–UK July Spread
(Sep Contract)
$5,916 − (£4,354 x 1.353$/£) =$25ton (down from $120ton)
Volume and Open Interest
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Trade Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 09-Jul-26 | 55,509 | 201,342 |
| 10-Jul-26 | 59,613 | 200,472 |
| 13-Jul-26 | 47,602 | 202,379 |
| 14-Jul-26 | 41,628 | 203,748 |
| 15-Jul-26 | 45,074 | Pending |
Trading activity strengthened in New York on 15 July, with total futures volume rising to 45,074 contracts, up 8.3% from 41,628 contracts on the previous session. The increase in turnover coincided with another test of recent highs, where prices encountered selling pressure and closed below the intraday peaks, suggesting greater participation from both buyers and sellers. The latest available open interest, reported for 14 July, increased to 203,748 contracts from 200,472 contracts on 10 July, reaching its highest level of the past five sessions. The gradual rise in open interest alongside the recent price recovery suggests that new positions were being established rather than the rally being driven solely by short covering.
London Cocoa (C)
| Trade Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 09-Jul-26 | 44,252 | 236,125 |
| 10-Jul-26 | 42,444 | 234,313 |
| 13-Jul-26 | 49,069 | 233,740 |
| 14-Jul-26 | 29,943 | 232,514 |
| 15-Jul-26 | 27,504 | Pending |
London cocoa trading was comparatively quieter, with total futures volume declining to 27,504 contracts, down 8.1% from 29,943 contracts on 14 July. The lower turnover suggests reduced market participation despite the modest recovery in settlement prices across the forward curve. The latest available open interest, reported for 14 July, declined to 232,514 contracts from 236,125 contracts on 9 July, continuing the gradual reduction in outstanding positions over the past five sessions. This suggests that recent market activity has been accompanied by position liquidation rather than sustained new position building.
Exchange Trading Volume
| Exchange | 14-Jul-26 | 15-Jul-26 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE U.S. Cocoa | 3,204,512 | 3,203,325 | -1,187 | -0.04% |
| ICE Europe Cocoa | 1,187,500 | 1,210,625 | +23,125 | +1.95% |
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelTomorrow's Outlook
The market enters today's session with a constructive technical structure but faces an important new fundamental catalyst. The EU Q2 cocoa grinding data showed European cocoa bean usage declined 4.6% year-on-year to 316,366 tonnes. Market participants will therefore have their first opportunity to incorporate this information during today's trading. From a technical perspective, the broader uptrend remains intact, with prices holding above all major moving averages despite repeated rejection near the 6,000 level. The market is therefore likely to test whether the weaker-than-last-year grindings are sufficient to trigger profit-taking or whether the data were already largely anticipated. A sustained break below 5,800–5,850 would suggest the demand figures have shifted sentiment in favour of sellers, while a successful defence of support and another attempt to challenge 6,000 would indicate that the bearish demand data have been largely absorbed by the market.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
