Cocoa Futures Slide as Ivory Coast Raises Crop Forecast and West Africa Rains Improve Outlook (14 May 2026)

• Cocoa futures fell sharply on Thursday, with New York and London declining approximately 4% to 5% as traders liquidated long positions.
• Côte d'Ivoire raised its 2025/26 cocoa production forecast to 2.2 million metric tons, up from 1.8-1.9 million metric tons.
• West Africa cocoa belt is forecast to receive 80-150 mm of rain over the next two weeks, supporting crop development.
• Voyage Foods and Cargill announced a partnership to expand cocoa-free chocolate alternatives.

Cocoa futures extended their correction on Thursday, 14 May, with both New York and London posting broad-based losses of approximately 4% to 5%. Selling pressure persisted through most of the session as traders continued to liquidate long positions following Monday’s rally. London Jul-26 declined as much as 4.8%, while New York Jul-26 fell 4.4%. Prices stabilized late in the day and recovered modestly from their intraday lows, but both markets still closed sharply lower. The orderly nature of the sell-off, combined with lower overall trading volume and continued heavy spread activity, indicates that the move was primarily a technical correction and wave of profit-taking rather than a significant deterioration in the underlying cocoa supply outlook.

The most significant development influencing Thursday's sell-off was the upward revision to Côte d'Ivoire's 2025/26 cocoa production outlook. The Conseil Café-Cacao increased its forecast to 2.2 million metric tons from a previous estimate of 1.8-1.9 million metric tons, citing favorable weather conditions and improved crop prospects. This substantial increase reduced some of the supply concerns that had supported prices in recent weeks and triggered broad-based long liquidation across both New York and London futures.

Additional pressure came from the currency markets, as the U.S. dollar index advanced to a two-week high. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on dollar-denominated commodities by making them more expensive for non-U.S. buyers and by reducing the relative attractiveness of commodity exposure. This macro headwind reinforced the technical correction already underway in cocoa futures.

Outside the futures market, industry attention remained focused on structural efforts to reduce dependence on conventional cocoa. Voyage Foods and Cargill announced a partnership to scale cocoa-free chocolate alternatives, highlighting how climate volatility and elevated cocoa prices are accelerating investment in substitute ingredients. The development does not have an immediate impact on cocoa demand but underscores the strategic response of food manufacturers to sustained supply uncertainty and high raw material costs.

Separately, a court in Germany ruled that Mondelez International misled consumers by reducing the size of its Milka bars from 100 grams to 90 grams without materially changing the packaging. While not directly relevant to cocoa fundamentals, the ruling illustrates the growing scrutiny on pricing and package-size adjustments as confectionery manufacturers continue to manage elevated ingredient costs.

Weather: West Africa Cocoa Belt

Weather forecasts for the next two weeks remain highly favorable across the West African cocoa belt, with widespread rainfall expected to support crop development. Most producing regions in Côte d'Ivoire are projected to receive between 80 and 150 mm of precipitation. The heaviest rainfall is forecast in key cocoa-growing regions around Daloa, Gagnoa, Man, Divo, and Duékoué.

This level of rainfall should maintain abundant soil moisture and support flowering, cherelle development, and pod filling. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonally moderate, generally in the mid-20s to upper-20s Celsius, limiting heat stress and creating favorable conditions for both the ongoing mid-crop and the early development of the 2025/26 main crop.

Ghana is also expected to receive regular and well-distributed rainfall, particularly across the Western North, Ashanti, and Brong-Ahafo regions. Southern Nigeria and Cameroon are forecast to remain seasonally wet, extending the favorable pattern across the broader West African cocoa belt.

The outlook is distinctly bearish. Rainfall totals of up to 150 mm in parts of Côte d'Ivoire materially reduce weather-related production risks and reinforce expectations for improved crop performance. Together with the recent upward revision of Côte d'Ivoire's 2025/26 production forecast to 2.2 million metric tons, the forecast supports the view that supply conditions may be less tight than previously anticipated.

Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

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Futures Performance

On 14 May 2026, cocoa futures extended their correction in both New York and London. The sell-off remained substantial but orderly, with losses distributed relatively evenly across the forward curve. Nearby contracts experienced the largest declines, while deferred months fell by slightly smaller amounts, indicating that the market was undergoing broad-based profit-taking rather than a structural reassessment of long-term supply expectations.

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, Jul-26 cocoa declined from 4,418 to 4,223, a drop of 195 points, or 4.41%. Deferred contracts posted similarly large losses, with Sep-26 down 192 points to 4,310, Dec-26 lower by 187 points to 4,403, Mar-27 down 181 points to 4,451, and May-27 declining 175 points to 4,479. Percentage losses narrowed gradually from 4.41% in the front month to 3.76% in May-27. This parallel downward shift suggests that traders reduced bullish exposure across the curve while preserving the overall term structure.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures also moved sharply lower, with the nearby contracts again showing the greatest weakness. Jul-26 fell from 3,283 to 3,125, a decline of 158 pounds per tonne, or 4.81%. Sep-26 declined by 156 pounds to 3,138, Dec-26 lost 139 pounds to 3,171, and both Mar-27 and May-27 dropped 127 pounds to 3,199 and 3,210, respectively. Percentage declines ranged from 4.81% in Jul-26 to 3.81% in May-27. The steeper losses in the prompt months indicate that the market correction was concentrated primarily in near-term supply risk premiums.

Despite the sharp decline, the structure of the forward curve remained largely intact. Nearby contracts continued to trade at a discount to deferred months, and the relative spacing between contracts changed only modestly. This indicates that traders were reducing positions and locking in gains following the previous rally, but were not materially altering their longer-term expectations regarding global cocoa supply tightness and market balance.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa activity moderated on 14 May as total volume declined to 42,437 contracts from 57,164 on the previous session. EFP volume eased slightly to 281 contracts, indicating that physical-related conversions remained active but less intense.

EFS activity surged to 2,383 contracts from 209, pointing to a substantial increase in swap-linked transactions and structured OTC hedge transfers. Spread volume fell to 20,862 contracts but still accounted for 49.2% of total turnover, confirming that calendar rolls and intermonth positioning remained a major component of trading activity.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa showed a marked increase in physical-related activity on 14 May, with EFP volume rising to 2,736 contracts from 1,482. This suggests more aggressive hedge adjustments against underlying physical cocoa transactions.

EFS activity declined sharply to 64 contracts, indicating a normalization in swap-related flows. Spread volume remained elevated at 16,276 contracts, representing 57.8% of total volume, which underscores the continued dominance of contract rolls and calendar spread adjustments despite lower overall market participation.

US–UK July Spread

$4,223 − (£3125 x 1.339$/£) =$38ton (up from $-47)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa trading activity has moderated sharply over the past five sessions. Volume peaked at 74,022 contracts on 11 May and declined steadily to 42,437 contracts on 14 May, a drop of 42.7%. Open interest rose through 12 May to 194,369 contracts before edging lower to 193,373 on 13 May, indicating modest liquidation ahead of the latest correction. The 14 May open interest figure has not yet been released.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa volume also trended lower, falling from 53,941 contracts on 8 May to 28,151 contracts on 14 May, a decline of 47.8%. Open interest decreased from 215,357 to 212,151 contracts between 8 and 13 May, indicating a gradual reduction in outstanding positions. As in New York, the 14 May open interest figure is not yet available.

Both cocoa markets show a consistent decline in trading activity over the last five sessions. New York and London volumes have nearly halved from the highs recorded on 8-11 May, while open interest has softened modestly. This combination suggests that the recent price correction has been accompanied by reduced speculative participation and moderate position liquidation rather than a significant build-up of new short exposure.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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Cocoa Market Outlook for Friday

For Friday, the most likely outcome is a consolidation session with a modest upward bias after the sharp two-day correction.

The market closed with a late-session rebound and short-term momentum indicators on the hourly and 5-minute charts began turning higher. This suggests that selling pressure is losing intensity and that some short covering is likely at the start of trading. Under this scenario, London Jul-26 cocoa could recover toward 3,145-3,180.

If buyers manage to push prices above 3,160, the rebound could extend toward 3,200-3,230 as traders cover shorts and re-establish long positions.

The main downside risk is a failure to hold above 3,100. In that case, the market could retest 3,060, and a break below that level would expose the psychologically important 3,000 area.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.