Cocoa Prices Fall but Recover from Intraday Lows Despite Favorable West Africa Rainfall Outlook (13 May 2026)
On 13-May-2026, cocoa futures came under heavy pressure early in the session as both New York and London markets extended the profit-taking that began after Monday’s sharp rally. In New York, Jul-26 cocoa fell to an intraday low of 4,160, down 9.5% from the previous close of 4,598, before recovering to settle at 4,393, a daily decline of 205 points or 4.46%. In London, Jul-26 cocoa dropped to 3,109, down 9.4% from the previous close of 3,433, and later rebounded to close at 3,272, a loss of 161 pounds or 4.69%. The substantial recovery from the session lows indicated that buying interest re-emerged at lower levels and that the sell-off was an orderly correction rather than a broader breakdown in market structure.
With little in the way of fresh fundamental news, traders continued to focus on weather developments in West Africa. Forecast models indicate that widespread rainfall is expected across the main cocoa-producing regions of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon over the coming days, with accumulated precipitation generally ranging from 50 to 150 mm and locally exceeding 200 mm in some areas. This pattern should improve soil moisture and support pod development during the mid-crop, helping to alleviate immediate concerns about moisture stress. While heavier showers could temporarily disrupt harvesting and drying activities in some locations, the overall weather outlook is broadly favorable for crop conditions and may modestly ease some of the supply concerns that have underpinned cocoa prices in recent weeks.
Futures Performance
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Contract | 12-May | 13-May | Change (Pts) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 4,598 | 4,418 | -180 | -3.91% |
| Sep-26 | 4,681 | 4,502 | -179 | -3.82% |
| Dec-26 | 4,765 | 4,590 | -175 | -3.67% |
| Mar-27 | 4,807 | 4,632 | -175 | -3.64% |
| May-27 | 4,819 | 4,654 | -165 | -3.42% |
The sell-off on 13 May was substantial but not disorderly. Front-month Jul-26 declined 180 points, while deferred contracts lost 165 to 179 points. Percentage declines were relatively uniform across the curve, ranging from 3.4% to 3.9%, indicating broad-based profit-taking rather than a structural shift in the forward curve.
London Cocoa (C)
| Contract | 12-May | 13-May | Change (Pts) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 3,433 | 3,283 | -150 | -4.37% |
| Sep-26 | 3,425 | 3,294 | -131 | -3.82% |
| Dec-26 | 3,436 | 3,310 | -126 | -3.67% |
| Mar-27 | 3,447 | 3,326 | -121 | -3.51% |
| May-27 | 3,449 | 3,337 | -112 | -3.25% |
London cocoa posted slightly larger declines in the nearby months, with Jul-26 falling 150 pounds to 3,283. Losses tapered progressively further along the curve, suggesting the correction was concentrated in prompt supply concerns rather than in longer-term pricing expectations.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Metric | Contracts |
|---|---|
| EFP | 299 |
| EFS | 209 |
| Spread Volume | 30,762 |
| Total Volume | 57,164 |
New York cocoa activity moderated further on 13-May as overall trading volume declined from the previous session. EFP volume fell to 299 contracts from 468 on 12-May, indicating a continued reduction in exchange-for-physical transactions after the intense repositioning observed earlier in the week.
EFS activity, however, increased sharply to 209 contracts from just 2 contracts on 12-May. This suggests a greater use of swap-related transactions, potentially reflecting renewed OTC hedging and structured risk transfers between commercial participants and financial counterparties.
Spread volume remained exceptionally high at 30,762 contracts, accounting for 53.8% of total volume. Although lower than the 55.1% recorded on 12-May, this still indicates that more than half of all trading activity was concentrated in contract rolls and calendar spread adjustments rather than outright directional positioning.
London Cocoa (C)
| Metric | Contracts |
|---|---|
| EFP | 1,482 |
| EFS | 316 |
| Spread Volume | 19,431 |
| Total Volume | 35,979 |
London cocoa displayed a significant increase in exchange-for-physical activity. EFP volume surged to 1,482 contracts from 420 on 12-May, more than tripling day over day. This points to substantial physical-to-futures conversions and suggests that commercial participants were actively adjusting hedges against underlying cocoa transactions.
EFS activity declined to 316 contracts from 1,024 on the previous day, indicating a normalization in swap-linked transactions after unusually strong OTC activity on 12-May.
Spread volume remained elevated at 19,431 contracts, representing 54.0% of total volume, slightly above the 52.6% recorded on 12-May. This confirms that spread trading and contract roll activity continued to dominate market participation.
US–UK July Spread
$4,418 − (£3283 x 1.360$/£) =$-47ton (up from $-70)
Volume and Open Interest
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Trade Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 07-May-2026 | 67,476 | 195,401 |
| 08-May-2026 | 58,202 | 191,404 |
| 11-May-2026 | 74,022 | 193,400 |
| 12-May-2026 | 64,225 | 194,369 |
| 13-May-2026 | 57,164 | Pending |
New York cocoa trading activity remained elevated throughout the past five sessions. Volume peaked on 11-May at 74,022 contracts during the sharp rally, then eased to 57,164 contracts on 13-May as the market corrected. Open interest increased from 191,404 contracts on 08-May to 194,369 contracts on 12-May, indicating that fresh positions were added during the recent volatility rather than the move being driven solely by short covering.
London Cocoa (C)
| Trade Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 07-May-2026 | 46,932 | 217,641 |
| 08-May-2026 | 53,941 | 215,357 |
| 11-May-2026 | 49,232 | 214,024 |
| 12-May-2026 | 36,519 | 212,094 |
| 13-May-2026 | 35,979 | Pending |
London cocoa volumes moderated over the last five sessions, declining from 53,941 contracts on 08-May to 35,979 contracts on 13-May. Open interest trended lower, falling from 217,641 contracts on 07-May to 212,094 contracts on 12-May. This suggests that some participants reduced exposure during the recent price rebound, even as trading activity remained relatively robust.
Exchange Trading Volume
| Market | 12-May-2026 | 13-May-2026 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (NY Cocoa) | 2,657,083 | 2,659,524 | +2,441 | +0.09% |
| UK (London Cocoa) | 798,125 | 817,656 | +19,531 | +2.45% |
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelCocoa Market Outlook for Thursday
Cocoa futures are likely to trade with a modest upward bias on Thursday following Wednesday’s sharp intraday recovery from early lows. The most probable scenario is a consolidation session in which New York Jul-26 holds above key support at 4,300 and tests resistance in the 4,450-4,500 area, while London Jul-26 attempts to recover toward 3,330-3,380. If buying momentum strengthens and 4,450 is cleared decisively, prices could extend toward 4,550-4,600; however, if support at 4,300 fails, the market could retest Wednesday’s low near 4,160. Overall, the technical structure suggests that Wednesday’s decline was an orderly correction rather than a trend reversal, making a stable-to-firmer session the most likely outcome.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
