Cocoa Surges to 3.5-Month Highs as El Niño Risks, Weak Crop Development and Ivory Coast Weather Concerns Tighten Supply Outlook (11 May 2026)

• Cocoa futures surged to three-and-a-half-month highs on 11 May
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 61% probability that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July
• There is a 25% probability that El Niño could intensify into a particularly strong event
• Early field surveys indicate below-average cherelle formation across West Africa
• Farmers in Ivory Coast reported patchy and below-average rainfall in key producing regions
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.57 million metric tons as of 10 May

Cocoa futures staged a dramatic recovery, reaching three-and-a-half-month highs on 11 May 2026 and reversing the sharp declines recorded on 8 May, thereby re-establishing strong upward momentum across both New York and London markets. In New York, the July 2026 contract closed at $4,690 per metric ton, up 10.6% from the previous session, while London July 2026 cocoa settled at £3,486 per metric ton, up 11.2%. The rally was broad-based, with all major maturities advancing by approximately 10% across the forward curve, indicating a parallel upward repricing rather than isolated strength in nearby contracts.

The rebound was underpinned by growing concerns that Pacific Ocean warming could trigger an El Niño event later this year, increasing the risk of hotter and drier weather across West Africa during critical crop development periods. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently estimates a 61% probability that El Niño conditions will develop during the May-July period and persist through the end of 2026, with a 25% chance that the event could reach unusually strong intensity. This raises the prospect of additional weather stress across the world's most important cocoa-producing region at a time when supply remains highly vulnerable.

El Niño Watch: Cocoa’s Next Major Supply Risk in Late 2026Q4

Rising El Niño probabilities could threaten West African cocoa production just as the market enters the 2026/27 season with thin inventories and fragile crop conditions.

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Cocoa prices also drew significant support from early field surveys of the 2026/27 West African crop, which indicate below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees. Since cherelles are the small pods that develop into mature cocoa pods, weak formation at this stage points to a potentially disappointing main crop, which begins in October and accounts for the majority of annual production. This early signal has heightened concerns that next season's supply may fail to recover as much as previously expected.

Further supporting the sharp rebound, renewed weather concerns emerged in Ivory Coast after farmers reported that patchy and below-average rainfall may reduce both the size and quality of the ongoing mid-crop. According to Reuters, growers in several major producing regions, including Soubre, Agboville, Divo, Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro, indicated that plantations require more moisture to sustain pod development and prevent stress from rising temperatures. Farmers emphasized that the next two weeks will be critical, warning that if rainfall does not improve, bean size and overall yields could be adversely affected during the key July and August harvesting period. While current pod availability should allow harvesting to continue into early July, insufficient moisture could limit the number of beans reaching maturity later in the season. In some areas, rainfall last week was significantly below historical averages, reinforcing concerns that the mid-crop may prove smaller and of lower quality than initially expected. Together, these developments underscore the continued vulnerability of global cocoa supply and provide a strong fundamental justification for the market's aggressive recovery.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Mid-Crop at Risk as Patchy Rains Hurt Yields

Uneven rainfall in Ivory Coast raises concerns over smaller cocoa mid-crop, reduced bean size, and tighter global supply in 2026.

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Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

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At the same time, recent arrival data from Ivory Coast provided little reassurance. Cumulative cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 1.57 million metric tons as of 10 May, only 0.6% above the same period last season. Given the exceptionally weak performance of the previous crop year, such a marginal increase suggests that production remains well below historical norms and reinforces concerns that global supplies will remain tight. Together, these developments underscore the continued fragility of the cocoa supply outlook and provide a strong fundamental justification for the market's aggressive recovery.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Port Arrivals – Weekly Deliveries Tracker

Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals represent the volume of cocoa beans delivered to the country’s main export ports during the marketing season. As the world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast typically accounts for around 40–45% of global cocoa supply, making port arrivals one of the most closely

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Futures Performance

11-May 2026 marked an exceptionally strong rebound in both New York and London cocoa futures. After the sharp liquidation observed on 08-May, the market staged an aggressive upside reversal on 11-May, with gains that more than offset the prior day's losses across all major maturities.

This type of price action is highly significant from a market-structure perspective. It suggests that the selloff on 08-May was driven primarily by short-term liquidation and profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in bearish sentiment. The rapid recovery indicates renewed buying interest from commercial hedgers, speculative funds, and potentially systematic traders responding to technical support levels.

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa experienced a powerful recovery, with every major contract posting gains of approximately 9.5% to 11.3% over a single trading session interval. The broad-based nature of the advance confirms that buying was not limited to the nearby contract but extended throughout the forward curve.

The strongest gain occurred in May-27, which rose by 499 points or 11.3%. This indicates that market participants were reassessing not only near-term supply conditions but also medium-term price expectations.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa also posted a dramatic recovery, with all contracts gaining more than 10% in only one trading session interval. The strongest increase occurred in the nearby May-26 contract, which advanced by 373 points or 11.74%.

The concentration of larger gains in nearby maturities indicates renewed concern over short-term physical supply availability and stronger demand for prompt hedging.

The advance was exceptionally broad, demonstrating that market participants aggressively re-entered long positions after the prior liquidation. The consistency of gains across maturities confirms that the rebound was structural rather than contract-specific.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa recorded exceptionally strong OTC-linked activity on 11-May. Exchange for Physical (EFP) transactions totaled 1,135 contracts, while Exchange for Swaps (EFS) reached 1,008 contracts. These are substantial figures and indicate that commercial hedgers, merchants, processors, and swap counterparties were actively transferring off-exchange exposures onto the futures market.

Spread volume climbed to 42,581 contracts, representing approximately 57.5% of the day's total volume. This confirms that the dominant trading activity was concentrated in calendar spreads and contract rolls rather than outright directional buying or selling.

The combination of elevated EFP and EFS activity and very large spread volume suggests broad institutional repositioning. Commercial participants were not merely observing the rally; they were actively restructuring hedges and adjusting forward exposures across multiple delivery months.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa also showed meaningful OTC-related activity, though at lower levels than New York. EFP volume totaled 307 contracts and EFS reached 740 contracts, indicating significant participation from commercial hedgers and OTC market participants.

Spread volume reached 30,036 contracts, accounting for approximately 61.0% of total volume. As in New York, this demonstrates that curve restructuring and position rolling were the principal drivers of trading activity.

The London market therefore reflected substantial hedge management and contract roll activity, with a notable contribution from commercial participants transferring swap and physical exposures into exchange-traded positions.

This pattern strongly suggests that the rally was not merely speculative. Commercial firms, swap counterparties, and institutional participants were actively re-establishing and restructuring exposures, reinforcing the view that cocoa remains a highly dynamic market driven by both financial and physical risk management flows.

US–UK July Spread

$4,690 − (£3486 x 1.360$/£) =$-51ton (down from $-10)

Volume and Open Interest

The 11-May 2026 cocoa session was characterized by very high trading volume across both New York and London, but the open interest trends suggest fundamentally different underlying drivers. New York experienced one of the highest volume sessions of the recent period immediately after a sharp decline in open interest, while London posted moderate volume following a steady contraction in outstanding positions. Together, these patterns indicate that the rally was driven primarily by short covering and position restructuring rather than broad creation of new speculative exposure.

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa volume surged to 74,022 contracts, nearly matching the exceptionally active 5-May session and standing 17.6% above the recent four-session average. This confirms intense participation and substantial repositioning.

At the same time, open interest fell by 8,956 contracts between 5-May and 8-May. This decline indicates that the preceding selloff was dominated by liquidation and short covering rather than accumulation of new positions. As positions were closed, the market became increasingly vulnerable to a sharp upside rebound.

The strong recovery on 11-May, occurring after a significant contraction in open interest, strongly suggests that traders who had previously reduced exposure were forced to re-enter positions. This is a classic market-structure pattern associated with short-covering rallies and aggressive risk reallocation.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa traded 49,232 contracts on 11-May, moderately below the recent average but still well above the volumes recorded during late April. This indicates continued active participation, although the intensity was lower than in New York.

Open interest contracted by 5,768 contracts from 5-May to 8-May, showing that London also experienced significant liquidation before the rebound. The decline was smaller in percentage terms than in New York, suggesting that London participants retained a larger portion of their exposure.

The 11-May recovery, combined with meaningful EFP and EFS activity, indicates that commercial hedgers and OTC participants were actively restructuring positions rather than simply responding to speculative flows.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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Cocoa Market Outlook for Tuesday

After the sharp rebound, the Jul-26 New York cocoa contract has reached a major technical resistance zone at the 150-day moving average near 4,700. Because the market paused exactly at this level, the most likely scenario for tomorrow is a period of consolidation or a modest pullback toward 4,650–4,600 as traders take profits and assess whether enough buying interest remains to sustain the rally. As long as prices hold above this support area, the short-term technical structure remains constructive and the market is likely to make another attempt to break above 4,700–4,750. A decisive close above this resistance would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the way toward 4,900–5,000, while a failure below 4,600 would suggest that the rebound is losing momentum. Overall, the balance of evidence favors a temporary pause followed by another test of the recent highs rather than an immediate reversal lower.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.