Cocoa Markets Stabilize Ahead of Key Q2 Grindings Reports (14 July 2026)

• New York cocoa recovered 2.20% from Monday's close, while London ended only 0.25% lower
• Attention now turns to Thursday's European grindings data (08:00 CEST)
• West African weather remains broadly favorable, with 30-120 mm of rainfall forecast across Ivory Coast and 15-80 mm across Ghana

Cocoa futures stabilized on Tuesday after early selling pressure pushed both New York and London markets to fresh intraday lows. Buyers gradually regained control throughout the session, lifting prices from their weakest levels and allowing New York cocoa to close 2.20% higher, while London cocoa ended only modestly lower, down 0.25%. Although the broader corrective phase remains intact, the repeated rejection of lower prices suggests selling pressure has begun to moderate.

Fundamental news remained scarce throughout the session, leaving traders focused primarily on technical developments ahead of this week's quarterly grindings reports. Market participants largely refrained from establishing significant new positions before the release of the European Cocoa Association's Q2 grindings data on Thursday at 08:00 CEST (07:00 UK / 02:00 New York). The North American Cocoa Association's report is scheduled for later on Thursday, while the Cocoa Association of Asia will publish its figures on Friday.

Although no formal market consensus has emerged, expectations generally point to another subdued quarter for European processing, reflecting the impact of historically high cocoa prices on chocolate demand. However, recent signs of improving industry activity, including Barry Callebaut's first year-on-year increase in sales volumes in two years (+5.7%), suggest the pace of demand contraction may be easing.

European grindings in the range of -2% to +1% year-on-year would likely be viewed as supportive, indicating that demand has stabilized following the weak first quarter. Conversely, a decline of more than 5% would reinforce concerns that elevated cocoa prices continue to weigh on processing demand. North American grindings are expected to range between 0% and +3%, while Asian processing is anticipated to remain the strongest of the three major regions, expanding by approximately 3-7%. As the first major demand indicator for the second quarter, Thursday's European grindings report is expected to set the tone for cocoa trading over the remainder of the week.

Weather remains a secondary market focus. Forecasts indicate 30-120 mm of rainfall across Ivory Coast and 15-80 mm across Ghana over the next seven days. While soil moisture remains adequate, farmers report that the crop now requires more sunshine following heavy June rainfall and persistently cloudy conditions. As flowering continues through September, the balance between rainfall and sunshine is expected to play a key role in determining the potential size of the upcoming main crop.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

The New York market staged a strong late-session recovery on Tuesday, with all major contracts closing 118–131 points above Monday's close. Although settlement prices remained slightly lower on the day, the higher closing prices indicate that buyers regained control into the final trading hours. The rebound was remarkably consistent across the forward curve, suggesting broad-based short covering and renewed buying interest rather than contract-specific activity. While one session does not confirm a trend reversal, the price action points to improving near-term sentiment following Monday's sharp liquidation.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa remained under pressure, extending the corrective move for another session. All major contracts finished lower on a closing basis, although declines were limited to just 9–19 points, substantially smaller than the previous day's losses. The relatively modest declines suggest that selling pressure has eased, but the absence of a meaningful rebound indicates that buyers remain cautious. The consistent weakness across the forward curve reflects a continuation of broad market softness rather than pressure concentrated in nearby maturities.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York Cocoa (CC)

Calendar spreads remained the dominant feature of trading, with 25,235 spread contracts (61% of outright volume), indicating active position rolling and curve management. EFP activity (198) was moderate, while EFS volume (55) remained limited, suggesting commercial participation was present but not a primary driver of the session.

London Cocoa (C)

Commercial activity was considerably stronger than in New York. EFP transactions reached 3,585 and EFS volume 2,301, reflecting elevated physical hedging and OTC risk transfer. Combined with robust spread activity (16,372 contracts), trading was driven by both commercial positioning and calendar spread management.

US–UK Spread

(Sep Contract)

$5,936 − (£4,344 x 1.339$/£) =$120ton (up from $-6ton)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

Trading activity continued to moderate, with total volume falling to 41,628 contracts, the lowest level in the past five trading sessions. Despite the decline in turnover, activity remained within the recent trading range, suggesting participation eased following last week's heightened volatility rather than signalling a significant withdrawal of market interest.

London Cocoa (C)

Trading activity declined sharply to 29,943 contracts, marking the lowest volume of the past five trading sessions. The pronounced reduction in turnover indicates a notable slowdown in market participation following Monday's elevated activity.

Updated open interest data will be important in assessing the quality of Tuesday's price action. Should open interest decline, it would indicate that recent selling was increasingly driven by profit-taking and short covering rather than fresh bearish positioning. This interpretation is supported by the past two sessions' price action, where consecutive long lower shadows suggest repeated rejection of lower prices and evidence of buyer absorption. While not yet confirming a trend reversal, a decline in open interest alongside these candlestick formations would strengthen the case for weakening downside momentum.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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Tomorrow's Outlook

The short-term bias has shifted from bearish to neutral-to-bullish. The market has demonstrated repeated rejection of lower prices, but confirmation of a renewed uptrend requires a sustained break above the 6,000 level with stronger participation. Until then, consolidation remains the most likely outcome.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.