Cocoa Weekly Market Report - Week 51 (15–19 December 2025)

Cocoa futures entered a corrective and consolidative phase this week as the market digested last week’s gains, contract expiry dynamics, and mixed physical signals from origin. After strong rallies in early December, prices pulled back sharply mid-week as favorable weather and above-average port arrivals in West Africa eased near-term supply concerns, prompting long liquidation and profit-taking. While the structural backdrop of tight certified stocks and policy risk remained present, short-term technical factors, curve-structure influences, and stronger physical flows countered upside pressure. Overall, this week’s price action reflected position adjustment and profit-taking rather than a wholesale reversal in fundamentals.

15 December — Cocoa prices corrected sharply

Cocoa futures opened the week lower, with losses extending across both New York and London curves after last week’s momentum stalled. Declines were broad-based, particularly in front-month and second-month contracts, as speculative longs reduced exposure ahead of the December contract expiry. Both markets experienced elevated volume, but open interest fell, confirming that the sell-off reflected position adjustment and long liquidation rather than fresh bearish conviction.

• Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator authorized the Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) to purchase up to 200,000 MT from farmers, indicating policy support even as prices corrected.
• As of December 14, cumulative arrivals since the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1 reached approximately 894,000 metric tons, down 0.1% year-on-year.
• Ecuador bean and cocoa product exports in November totaled approximately 76,500 metric tons, marking both a record November shipment and the highest monthly export volume ever recorded by the country. Export volumes were more than 20% higher year-on-year

16 December — Mixed technical rebound

After Monday’s sharp correction, futures exhibited a modest technical bounce mid-week. Both NY and London markets attempted to recover some of the previous losses, with deferred contracts showing greater resilience. Physical and policy developments in Côte d’Ivoire continued to influence sentiment. However, this session did not produce sustained follow-through, and prices remained below key resistance levels, highlighting lingering uncertainty.

• Citigroup cut its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 79,000 MT from a September estimate of 134,000 MT.
• Sharp decline in UK certified cocoa stocks
• CRA expects cocoa output from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana to decline further

17 December — Two consolidation sessions

Wednesday’s and Thursday’s sessions were defined by consolidation and range-bound activity. Price action was primarily technical, with short-covering and tactical dip-buying counterbalancing residual selling pressure.

The European Parliament voted to adopt targeted changes to delay and simplify the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), a factor that influenced the broader narrative but did not drive a strong directional move. Upside momentum remained constrained by layered moving-average resistance, and both exchanges moved sideways.

18 December — Consolidation as year-end volumes thin

Cocoa futures continued to trade in a narrow range on Thursday, with markets absorbing profit-taking and expiry effects. Volumes thinned as year-end flows dominated, and broader macro drivers took a back seat to position rebalancing and physical inflows. The market reinforced the view that the immediate correction was orderly, with participants seemingly more focused on logistics and certified stock balances ahead of the holiday season.

19 December — Physical flows offset tight stocks and policy risk

By Friday, cocoa futures extended the corrective phase, with both New York and London showing broad-based declines across the curve. The session was marked by lighter participation and continued position adjustment rather than decisive directional conviction. Price action remained orderly, reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning from forced liquidation to a more balanced state ahead of year-end.

Weather & Growing Conditions

Weather patterns across West Africa continued to play a stabilizing role this week. Above-average rainfall persisted across much of Ivory Coast and Ghana, supporting soil moisture and pod development while delaying the onset of the dry Harmattan winds. This combination has strengthened canopy conditions and reduced immediate stress on tree health, though canopy recovery remains below long-term norms. While favorable weather has eased some short-term supply fears, it also raises disease risk if dry-season onset is postponed. Overall, weather conditions contributed to physical supply confidence but did not eradicate the underlying structural tightness previously observed.

Weather Analysis Week 51 and 52

Past Week 51 Weather (December 15-21, 2025) Over the past week, rainfall across the core cocoa-growing regions of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana was broadly near-normal to slightly above normal, according to the RFE2 anomaly data. Positive anomalies were generally modest, concentrated in the +10 to +50 mm range, and

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Weekly Summary Box
Week 51 (15–19 December 2025)

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment this week was dominated by consolidation, profit-taking, and technical adjustment rather than fresh fundamental positioning. The strong correction and subsequent range trading indicate that participants are cautious, balancing the structural tightness of stocks and policy risk with rising physical inflows and favorable weather signals. Short-covering and tactical buying underpinned mid-week stabilization, but the lack of sustained follow-through beyond key resistance levels suggests that traders remain defensive. As such, sentiment is neutral-to-cautious, with the balance of risk shifting toward events that can clarify physical flows, arrival patterns, and the year-end supply trajectory.

Outlook & Key Risks

For the coming week, the market will closely watch:

• Arrival data from Ivory Coast and Ghana to confirm whether mid-December physical flows sustain recent trends.
• Certified stocks and open interest to assess commitment from commercial and speculative participants.
• Weather developments, particularly the timing of the Harmattan onset.

A clearer indication on any of these points could provide the next directional catalyst — either reinforcing the corrective consolidation or reigniting a move toward higher price levels.