Daily Cocoa Market Report (13 March 2026): Ghana Loan Delays Cast Shadow Over Cocoa Supply
- Cocoa futures closed mixed Friday, with New York extending losses while London contracts edged higher.
- Currency moves drove the divergence, as a stronger dollar pressured U.S. prices while a weaker pound supported London cocoa.
- Ghana’s COCOBOD has delayed repayment of more than $400 million in loans owed to licensed buying companies that financed recent harvest purchases.
- Funding strains could limit Ghana’s ability to buy beans next season, raising risks of tighter global cocoa supplies.
Cocoa futures ended Friday with mixed performance between New York and London markets. New York cocoa extended the previous session’s decline, while London cocoa stabilized and posted modest gains in several contracts. The divergence was influenced partly by currency dynamics: a stronger U.S. dollar pressured New York cocoa, while a weaker British pound supported London contracts priced in sterling.
Trading activity remained concentrated in the nearby May and July contracts, with market participants continuing to adjust positions after the sharp volatility earlier in the week.
Policy and Industry Developments
Recent developments in Ghana’s cocoa sector highlight growing financial pressure within the country’s cocoa marketing system, raising concerns about future supply stability. Ghana’s cocoa regulator, the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), has reportedly delayed the repayment of more than $400 million in loans owed to domestic and international licensed buying companies over the past two years. These loans were originally used to finance cocoa purchases from farmers during the 2023-24 and 2024-25 harvest seasons after Ghana was unable to secure its traditional syndicated loan from international lenders.
The repayment delays are creating uncertainty among traders and lenders, making it more difficult for buying companies to obtain fresh financing ahead of the next harvest. If funding constraints persist, COCOBOD could face challenges securing enough capital to purchase beans from farmers in the upcoming season. This would have significant implications for the global cocoa market because Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, and disruptions in its purchasing system could tighten global bean availability.
Compounding the situation is COCOBOD’s previous decision to roll over approximately 334,000 tons of cocoa sales from the 2023-24 season into later seasons at prices near $2,660 per ton. These forward sales were agreed before cocoa prices surged to record highs in 2024, meaning Ghana did not benefit from the extreme rally that pushed global futures toward $13,000 per ton. As a result, the regulator lost potential revenue that could have strengthened its financial position. About 90,000 tons of those contracts reportedly remain outstanding, continuing to limit revenue flexibility.
In an effort to stabilize its purchasing system, COCOBOD recently resumed cocoa buying after temporarily suspending operations when global prices declined earlier this year. However, the regulator also reduced the farmgate price paid to growers by nearly one-third, aiming to align domestic cocoa prices with international market levels. While officials have reassured farmers that no further price cuts are expected, the reduction highlights the financial strain facing Ghana’s cocoa sector.
The situation introduces a significant layer of uncertainty into the cocoa market. If COCOBOD’s financing challenges persist and limit bean purchases from farmers, Ghana’s export flows could tighten, potentially supporting global cocoa prices despite the recent downward trend in futures markets.
Cocoa Intel
Futures Performance
ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)
| Contract | 12-Mar | 13-Mar | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 3,336 | 3,298 | -38 |
| Jul-26 | 3,407 | 3,364 | -43 |
| Sep-26 | 3,471 | 3,429 | -42 |
| Dec-26 | 3,555 | 3,502 | -53 |
New York cocoa continued to drift lower across the forward curve. The May-26 contract fell about 1.1% day-over-day, while deferred contracts also declined between 42–53 points, indicating persistent selling pressure across maturities.
The declines suggest the market is still consolidating after the strong rebound earlier in the week when demand signals from Côte d’Ivoire export purchases triggered a temporary rally.
Volume remained strongest in May-26 (11,783 lots) and Jul-26 (8,792 lots), confirming that speculative activity is concentrated in the nearby contracts.
ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
| Contract | 12-Mar | 13-Mar | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-26 | 2,357 | 2,392 | +35 |
| May-26 | 2,410 | 2,420 | +10 |
| Jul-26 | 2,459 | 2,468 | +9 |
| Sep-26 | 2,487 | 2,500 | +13 |
| Dec-26 | 2,517 | 2,531 | +14 |
London cocoa moved in the opposite direction of New York, posting gains across the curve. The Mar-26 contract rose 35 points, while the key May-26 contract gained 10 points.
This divergence largely reflects currency effects: when the British pound weakens, cocoa priced in GBP becomes cheaper for international buyers, often supporting London futures.
Trading volume was moderate, with 11,837 lots traded in May-26, indicating steady participation but not aggressive buying.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
Trading activity on Friday showed a noticeable presence of off-screen transactions and spread trading, reflecting continued positioning along the cocoa futures curve. In the London cocoa market, Exchange for Physical (EFP) transactions totaled 3,687 lots and Exchange for Swaps (EFS) reached 3,070 lots, indicating active hedging and risk transfer between futures and the physical cocoa market as well as the OTC swap market. EFP activity was concentrated mainly in the Mar-26 and May-26 contracts, suggesting that commercial participants were adjusting nearby physical exposures. In New York cocoa, off-exchange activity was lighter, with 209 EFP lots and 6 EFS lots, indicating more limited physical-to-futures conversion during the session. Meanwhile, spread trading remained significant, with 16,154 spread lots recorded in London and 17,901 in New York, highlighting strong calendar-spread positioning as traders adjusted relative value along the forward curve rather than taking outright directional bets. This pattern suggests that much of the market activity was focused on curve structure and hedging rather than aggressive speculative buying or selling.
Forward Curve
The cocoa forward curve remained in contango on both exchanges, with deferred contracts trading progressively higher than nearby maturities. In New York, prices rise from 3,298 in May-26 to 3,650 in Dec-27, while London futures increase from 2,392 in Mar-26 to 2,601 in Dec-27. This upward-sloping structure reflects continued expectations of tight nearby supply but improving availability in later seasons, with the market pricing higher risk and uncertainty further along the curve. The relatively smooth curve also indicates stable term structure without signs of immediate physical shortage pressure.
US–UK May Spread
$3,298 − (2420 x 1.322$/£) =$99 ton (down from $104)
Volume and Open Interest
ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)
| Date | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2026 | 42,887 | 189,997 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 41,114 | 192,004 |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 35,467 | 189,585 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | 39,901 | 189,541 |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 29,758 | N/A |
Trading activity slowed noticeably at the end of the week. In New York cocoa (CC), total volume declined to 29,758 contracts on 13 March, down from 39,901 on 12 March and well below the 58,822 contracts traded on 2 March, indicating a clear reduction in speculative participation as the market consolidated. Open interest on 12 March stood at 189,541 contracts, slightly below the 192,004 recorded on 10 March, suggesting some long liquidation during the recent price pullback rather than aggressive new short positioning.
ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
| Date | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2026 | 33,443 | 203,308 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 29,926 | 203,055 |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 29,606 | 203,504 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | 38,915 | 202,875 |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 33,610 | N/A |
In London cocoa (C), trading volume reached 33,610 contracts on 13 March, slightly lower than 38,915 on 12 March but still within the typical range observed over the past two weeks. Open interest in London has gradually declined from 218,163 contracts on 26 February to 202,875 on 12 March, reflecting a steady reduction in outstanding positions as traders adjust exposure following the earlier volatility in cocoa prices.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Analysis
The latest COT data shows that speculative sentiment in cocoa remains clearly defensive rather than bullish. In the New York market, non-commercial traders reduced long positions while simultaneously increasing short exposure during the latest reporting week. This combination usually signals that hedge funds are losing confidence in the upside and are positioning for either further declines or continued consolidation. It indicates that the recent rebound in prices has not convinced speculative traders that a sustained recovery is underway.
Commercial traders moved slightly in the opposite direction, reducing part of their short hedge exposure and modestly increasing long positions. However, this should not be interpreted as a strong bullish signal. Commercial participants typically hedge physical exposure rather than speculate on price direction, and they remain structurally net short, which reflects the continued need of producers and merchants to hedge forward cocoa supply.
Positioning in the London cocoa market reinforces the cautious outlook. Managed money funds remain heavily net short, with short positions far exceeding longs. This indicates that the speculative community continues to expect weak or unstable price conditions. At the same time, the large number of spread positions held by funds shows that many traders are focusing on relative value within the forward curve rather than committing to strong directional bets.
The positioning structure suggests that the market is not yet positioned for a sustained bullish move. Speculative traders remain defensive, while commercial hedging activity continues to cap upside enthusiasm. However, the build-up of short positions also means that if a bullish catalyst appears—such as supply disruptions or stronger demand signals—the market could experience sharp short-covering rallies. For now, though, the balance of positioning still leans bearish to neutral rather than bullish.
Cocoa Intel
Exchange Trading Volume
| Date | ICE New York Cocoa (US) | ICE London Cocoa (UK) |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026 | 39,901 | 38,915 |
| 13 Mar 2026 | 2,266,484 | 663,125 |
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa Intel
What to expect tomorrow
Technically, the May-26 New York cocoa contract closed around 3,297, continuing to trade within a short-term consolidation range after the rebound earlier in the week. The hourly chart shows prices holding near the 20-hour moving average, while the 90-hour and 150-hour averages remain slightly above the market, acting as near-term resistance.
Momentum indicators are neutral to slightly positive. RSI is around the mid-50s, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while MACD is flattening near the zero line, suggesting that bearish momentum has slowed but a strong bullish impulse has not yet developed. The stochastic indicator is turning higher, which may support a modest rebound attempt if buying interest appears.
From a structural perspective, the market currently appears to be forming a short-term range between approximately 3,260 and 3,340. A break above the 3,340–3,360 zone could trigger technical buying and open the path toward 3,400–3,450. Conversely, a move below 3,260 support could expose the market to renewed selling pressure toward 3,200–3,150.
The most likely scenario for the next session is continued sideways trading with a slight upward bias, as the market consolidates after recent volatility and traders reassess positioning ahead of new fundamental signals from West African supply developments and macro currency movements.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
