Daily Cocoa Market Report (15 April 2026): Cocoa Rally Pauses; European Grindings Released Post-Close Reinforce Demand Weakness

• Cocoa futures eased on 15-Apr
• European cocoa grindings for Q1 2026 were released after the close, showing 325,895 tons, down -7.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3% to -7%
• Malaysia reported stronger Q1 grindings earlier in the week, up +8.7% y/y to 91,496 tons, signaling regional divergence in demand trends
• Broader Q1 grindings are expected to show contraction across all regions, with CRA forecasting ECA -2.9%, CAA -11.5%, NCA -13.5%
• Expana estimates are similarly weak, with Europe -3% to -7%, North America -8% to -12%, and Asia around -10%

Cocoa futures eased on 15 April after the previous session’s sharp rally, with both New York and London giving back part of the 14 April gain in what looked more like an orderly technical correction than a reversal of structure. The decline was broadly parallel across the curve, which points to position adjustment and profit-taking rather than a fresh deterioration in nearby physical sentiment. New York held up better than London, but both markets moved lower as traders absorbed the previous day’s squeeze-driven advance and waited for fresh demand signals.

The focus now shifts to demand-side data released this morning after the close, most notably European cocoa grindings for Q1 2026. The European Cocoa Association reported grindings at 325,895 metric tons, down -7.9% year-on-year versus 353,522 tons in Q1 2025, coming in at the weaker end of market expectations (-3% to -7%). The key takeaway is clear: European processing demand remains under significant pressure, extending the contraction seen in Q4 (304,470 tons, -8.3% y/y), and confirming that elevated cocoa prices continue to weigh on chocolate manufacturing activity.

European Cocoa Processing Weakens Further in Q1 2026

European cocoa grindings opened 2026 on a notably weak footing, reinforcing the structural slowdown that began in 2024 and intensified through 2025. The latest data from the European Cocoa Association shows that Q1 2026 grindings reached 325,852 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.8%. This marks one of

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In contrast, Malaysia provided a strong counterpoint earlier in the week. Q1 cocoa grindings rose +8.7% year-on-year to 91,496 metric tons, with an additional +15% quarter-on-quarter increase from 79,528 tons in Q4 2025. This was a significant upside surprise versus expectations of a decline and was a key driver behind the sharp rally on 14 April, as it suggested that demand destruction may not be uniform across regions.

Global Cocoa Grindings – Quarterly Demand Tracker

Track global cocoa grindings data from Europe, North America, and Asia to monitor chocolate demand and its impact on cocoa prices.

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Looking ahead, broader Q1 grindings data across regions is expected to confirm that demand remains soft overall. Current estimates point to contraction across all major regions. CRA forecasts declines of -2.9% for Europe (ECA), -11.5% for Asia (CAA), and -13.5% for North America (NCA). Expana projections are somewhat more conservative for Europe, at -3% to -7%, but still indicate weakness globally, with North America expected between -8% and -12% and Asia around -10%. The consistency of these forecasts highlights that demand softness is most pronounced in North America and Asia, even as isolated data points like Malaysia show regional resilience.

From a price perspective, these grindings numbers create a mixed demand signal. European weakness is inherently bearish, as it reflects reduced industrial consumption in the largest processing region and tends to cap rallies. However, the strength in Malaysia introduces regional divergence, indicating that demand is stabilizing in parts of Asia. This helps explain recent price action: a sharp rally driven by localized demand strength, followed by a controlled correction as the broader, weaker global demand backdrop limits upside follow-through.

Futures Performance

NY Cocoa (CC)

The 15-Apr session represents a broad-based corrective move following the sharp, parallel repricing observed on 14-Apr. In New York cocoa, the decline is measured and orderly, with losses ranging from approximately -1.25% to -1.49% across the May-26 to Mar-27 maturities. The consistency of the percentage declines indicates a largely parallel downward shift in the curve, although there is a slight bias toward heavier selling in the front months. This mild front-end pressure suggests some degree of profit-taking or short-term positioning unwind rather than a reassessment of longer-dated fundamentals. The overall structure of the curve remains intact, with no meaningful distortion or steepening emerging from the move.

London Cocoa (C)

In contrast, London cocoa exhibits a more pronounced correction, with declines clustering tightly between -2.68% and -2.87% across the same segment of the curve. The uniformity of the percentage changes confirms that this is also a parallel shift, but of significantly greater magnitude than in New York. The absence of differentiation along the curve implies that the move is not driven by localized physical tightness or specific tenor-related factors, but rather by macro or flow-driven dynamics. Given the scale of the prior day’s rally, the sharper retracement in London points to a degree of relative overextension that required normalization.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

The 15-Apr correction was driven primarily by spread-led repositioning and physical rebalancing, rather than outright directional selling.

In New York, EFP activity is modest and front-loaded (May and Jul), indicating limited but targeted physical hedging adjustments in nearby maturities. EFS is negligible, so cross-market linkage was not expressed via formal futures–swap channels. The dominant feature is spread volume, which is concentrated in Jul and Sep and broadly distributed along the curve. This confirms that most of the activity was executed via calendar spreads, facilitating a clean, parallel downward shift without altering curve structure.

London shows a more active physical component. EFP volumes are higher and extend further along the curve, consistent with more aggressive rebalancing of physical exposure following the prior day’s outsized rally. As in New York, EFS remains minimal. Spread activity is again substantial and front-to-mid concentrated, supporting a uniform repricing across maturities.

US–UK May Spread

$3,489 − (2537 x 1.357$/£) =$46ton (up from $14)

Volume and Open Interest

The volume and open interest profile around 14–15 Apr confirms that the sharp rally and subsequent correction were primarily flow-driven, with limited evidence of fresh directional positioning.

NY Cocoa (CC) – Last 5 Trading Days

In New York, volume peaked aggressively on 14-Apr at 126k lots, roughly double the already elevated levels seen on 7–10 Apr (≈55–68k). This spike aligns with the large parallel upside repricing and indicates a surge in participation, likely driven by short-covering and systematic buying. However, open interest increased only marginally (from ~194k on 13-Apr to ~196k on 14-Apr), which suggests that much of this volume was turnover rather than new risk creation. On 15-Apr, volume dropped back to ~55k while prices corrected lower, reinforcing the interpretation that the move was dominated by position adjustment rather than the establishment of new longs. The lack of a meaningful open interest build on the rally implies that bullish conviction did not materially expand.

London Cocoa (C) – Last 5 Trading Days

London shows a similar but more muted pattern. Volume increased into 14-Apr (~44.5k) from prior levels (~25–36k), but the scale of the spike is significantly smaller than in New York. Open interest continued its steady upward trend throughout the period, reaching ~221.6k on 14-Apr, indicating a more gradual accumulation of positions over time. On 15-Apr, volume eased slightly (~40.9k) alongside the price correction, with no sign of abrupt position liquidation. This suggests that London’s larger price retracement was not driven by forced unwinds, but rather by active rebalancing within an already established position base.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

The market is currently in a classic post-rally consolidation phase following the sharp, flow-driven move on 14-Apr.

For the next session, the most likely outcome is continued range-bound trading with a slight upward bias. The market may attempt another push higher, particularly if it can build acceptance above the 3,600 area, but a strong directional move will likely require a break of resistance around 3,650–3,700 accompanied by renewed volume. On the downside, a break below 3,500 would be the key signal that the correction is extending and could open the way toward deeper retracement levels.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.