Daily Cocoa Market Report (15 Dec 2025): Cocoa Prices Corrected Sharply

• Cocoa prices corrected sharply on Monday, with losses extending across both New York and London curves after last week’s momentum stalled.
• Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator authorized the Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) to purchase up to 200,000 metric tons of cocoa beans from farmers.
• Volume remained elevated, but declining open interest confirms long liquidation rather than fresh short selling.
• Physical and weather headlines remain supportive, but near-term positioning pressure dominates price action.
• Ecuador record November shipments

Market Overview

Cocoa futures opened the week under renewed pressure, reversing part of last week’s rally as speculative longs reduced exposure ahead of contract expiry dynamics and persistent macro uncertainty. Both New York and London closed lower across the curve, with losses concentrated in the front and second months. Despite the pullback, participation remained active, underscoring that the correction reflects position adjustment rather than an exit from the broader cocoa bull narrative.

Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator has moved to stabilize the domestic market amid mounting exporter stress, after the government authorized the Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) to purchase up to 200,000 metric tons of cocoa beans from farmers, according to Bloomberg. The decision follows sharp declines in international prices, which have eroded exporter margins and left several firms unable to honor forward contracts agreed earlier in the season at higher price levels. By stepping in as buyer of last resort, the CCC aims to prevent defaults and ease congestion at ports, but it also introduces the risk of concentrated hedge pressure later in the season. Once the regulator holds unpriced inventory, it will likely need to manage price risk through futures hedging, potentially creating a large, centralized wave of selling. This would not reflect surplus supply, but rather risk-management activity that could cap rallies or trigger sharp pullbacks if implemented during periods of market strength.
Source: Bloomberg.

Deliveries

Ivory Coast

Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports remain broadly stable but continue to lag last season marginally. As of December 14, cumulative arrivals since the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1 reached approximately 894,000 metric tons, down 0.1% year-on-year, according to Reuters. Weekly deliveries between December 8 and 14 totaled around 91,000 tons, with roughly 44,000 tons shipped through Abidjan and 47,000 tons through San Pedro, exceeding the comparable week last season. While the weekly improvement suggests short-term catch-up flows, the persistence of sub-100,000-ton weekly arrivals for a second consecutive week reinforces market caution over the durability of mid-crop supply momentum, particularly as Harmattan risks approach peak intensity later in the dry season.
Source: Reuters.

Ecuador
Cocoa supply pressure is also being reinforced by exceptionally strong export flows from Ecuador. Bean and cocoa product exports in November totaled approximately 76,500 metric tons, marking both a record November shipment and the highest monthly export volume ever recorded by the country. Export volumes were more than 20% higher year-on-year, underscoring Ecuador’s growing role in offsetting West African supply risks. The combination of strong Ecuadorian exports and improving short-term arrivals from Ivory Coast has contributed to near-term price pressure, particularly in nearby contracts, even as medium-term supply risks remain elevated due to weather, regulatory, and structural constraints.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, ANECACAO.

Weather Conditions

Weather conditions across Côte d’Ivoire remain broadly supportive for the 2025/26 main cocoa crop. According to Reuters, above-average rainfall combined with sunny spells across most key growing regions over the past week is expected to boost both crop size and duration during the critical October–March period. Farmers report abundant small pods on trees, which require sustained moisture through late December to reach full development. Consistent rainfall into December and early January is seen as particularly important for strengthening trees ahead of the Harmattan season, helping crops better withstand the dry, dust-laden winds that typically intensify between December and March. While Harmattan risks remain elevated — with prolonged dry winds capable of reducing humidity, shrinking pods, and lowering bean quality — recent rains are likely to delay and partially soften its impact. Regional reports indicate above-average rainfall in central and western areas, steady bean development, and a potentially delayed Harmattan onset. Overall, current weather trends are supportive, improving near-term crop resilience but not yet sufficient to materially ease underlying supply tightness.

Weather Analysis Week 50 and 51

Past Week 50 Weather (December 7-13, 2025) The RFE2 satellite data for December 7-13, 2025 shows moderate rainfall distribution across West Africa’s primary cocoa zones: Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa-growing regions received 15-30mm of rainfall, with better coverage in the southern and western cocoa belt areas around Man, Soubré, and Daloa. Ghana:

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Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

New York experienced a sharp, orderly liquidation across the deferred curve, with losses broadly proportional by maturity. The scale and uniformity of the decline point to long liquidation rather than panic selling, consistent with post-expiry repositioning following the December contract roll. Importantly, deferred contracts outperformed the nearby on a relative basis, indicating that the market is reducing exposure without abandoning the structural supply-tightness narrative.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

London followed New York lower, with heavy declines across the deferred curve, though losses remained slightly less severe in the back months. The synchronized move confirms that last week’s strength was unwound through risk reduction and profit-taking, not a change in physical fundamentals. Despite the sell-off, London’s curve remains structurally tight, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed short covering should West African supply risks re-emerge or New York stabilize.

Contango vs Backwardation

Both cocoa markets exhibit firm backwardation with no evidence of contango. This structure reflects ongoing physical tightness, constrained deliverable supply, and a market that continues to reward immediate availability over forward storage.

US–UK Spread

$5,875−(4,240£×1.337$/£)=$206

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

Volumes rebounded on Monday, particularly in New York, where activity increased sharply from Friday’s moderation, reflecting renewed engagement following last week’s correction. While open interest for December 15 is not yet reported, the prior sessions show a clear build through mid-week before easing into Friday, consistent with position adjustment rather than broad liquidation.

In London, volumes eased slightly on Monday while open interest has already been trending lower from recent highs, indicating selective trimming of exposure after the sharp early-December rally. The combination of resilient volumes and only modest open-interest retracement across both exchanges suggests that participation remains structurally strong, even as the market consolidates following the December contract expiry and sharp prior gains.

Certified Stocks

• US certified stocks: 1,655,467 tonnes (down from 1,659,110 tonnes)
  • Day-on-day change: −3,643 bags
• UK certified stocks: 748,125 tonnes (down from 773,281 tonnes)
  • Day-on-day change: −25,156 bags

The sharp UK decline suggests meaningful withdrawals or load-outs rather than routine noise. This inventory contraction aligns with recent backwardation pressure and helps explain why London prices have remained resilient despite broader futures consolidation.

What to Expect Tomorrow

US Cocoa remains in a corrective phase , with recent price action reflecting a weak rebound rather than a confirmed trend reversal. On the 5-minute and 1-hour charts, the market is exhibiting a mechanical bounce from the 5,800–5,875 area, but price remains firmly below declining medium- and long-term moving averages, momentum indicators are still negative, and volume does not confirm accumulation, indicating that sellers remain in control. The daily chart shows only early stabilization following a sharp decline from the 6,400 region, with price still below the 90-, 150-, and 200-day averages and no meaningful improvement in MACD or OBV, suggesting the move lacks structural support. On the weekly timeframe, cocoa is retracing into the 150–200-week moving average zone, which represents a critical decision area rather than a bullish entry point, as momentum and volume trends continue to point to distribution. Overall, rallies into the 5,950–6,100 zone remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, while a sustained break below 5,650 would signal further downside risk, and only a decisive recovery above 6,250–6,500 would begin to alter the prevailing bearish bias.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.

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