Daily Cocoa Market Report (17 April 2026): Cocoa Extends Decline as Improving Supply and Weak Grind Data Deepen Market Correction

• Cocoa extends losses: New York July futures settle near $3,280/t, down over 5% on the day, with the front end continuing to lead the decline.
• Ecuador March exports rise 2.2% y/y, with crop-year shipments up 3.0%
• Brazil grind falls 0.8% y/y
• Europe (-7.8%) and North America (-3.8%) contract, while Asia (+5.2%) provides only partial offset.

Cocoa futures extended their corrective phase into 17-Apr, with New York prices settling around $3,280/t, marking a sharp daily decline of just over 5% and reinforcing the broader downtrend that has unfolded since early April . The move follows a sequence of consecutive losses, with nearby contracts leading the downside and confirming continued pressure on the front end of the curve.

On the supply side, export data points to gradual improvements in availability. Ecuador reported March bean and semi-finished product exports of 40,544 metric tons, up 2.21% year-on-year, while cumulative exports for the current crop year reached 326,250 metric tons, a 2.98% increase versus the same period last year. Although modest in scale, this steady growth supports the narrative of incremental supply normalization, particularly from mid-tier producers, adding liquidity to the physical market and contributing to the ongoing price correction.

At the same time, demand indicators continue to weaken across key regions. In Brazil, cocoa processing declined 0.8% year-on-year in the first quarter to 51,715 metric tons, with industry data highlighting that grind levels remain below historical norms despite improved local supply. This reflects ongoing softness in end-user demand, even as raw material availability improves. Arrivals of cocoa beans into Brazil surged 61% in the first quarter to 28,605 tons, highlighting a growing imbalance between improving supply flows and constrained processing demand.

The broader regional picture remains mixed but skewed to the downside. North American grind fell 3.8% to 106,087 metric tons, while European processing declined more sharply by 7.8% year-on-year, underscoring weakness in one of the largest consuming markets. Asia provided some support, with grindings rising 5.2%, but this was insufficient to offset declines elsewhere. Meanwhile, arrivals of cocoa beans into Brazil surged 61% in the first quarter to 28,605 tons, highlighting a growing imbalance between improving supply flows and constrained processing demand.

Global Cocoa Grindings – Quarterly Demand Tracker

Track global cocoa grindings data from Europe, North America, and Asia to monitor chocolate demand and its impact on cocoa prices.

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Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa extended sharply lower on 17-Apr, with losses accelerating well beyond the pace observed in the prior session. The decline remains clearly front-end led, with May and July contracts posting the largest percentage losses, but the move is now decisively broad-based across the curve. The compression in the rate of decline toward the back end suggests that while the prompt remains under the greatest pressure, the market is no longer repricing in a purely structured manner. Instead, the scale of the move points to systematic long liquidation and deleveraging flows, likely exacerbated by reduced liquidity and margin constraints. This represents a transition from a controlled correction into a more aggressive liquidation phase.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa followed the same directional move but with a noticeably more contained and orderly profile. Losses are distributed in a tighter range, and the curve shift is largely parallel, with only a modest front-end bias. This indicates a more balanced flow dynamic, with less evidence of forced liquidation compared to New York. The relative stability of the London curve suggests that positioning is either lighter or better absorbed, and that the market is adjusting more through incremental repricing rather than aggressive position unwinds.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York cocoa flow on 17-Apr is overwhelmingly dominated by spread activity, with 32.6k lots traded, far exceeding both EFP (1.6k) and EFS (114) volumes. This concentration in spreads indicates that the session was driven primarily by curve repositioning rather than outright directional conviction. The elevated spread flow aligns with the observed front-end weakness and broader liquidation pattern, suggesting active rolling, unwinding of calendar structures, and systematic reduction of length. The presence of moderate EFP volume points to ongoing commercial hedging against physical exposure, while the minimal EFS participation implies that OTC-linked flows played only a marginal role in New York’s price action.

In London, spread activity is also the dominant component at 21.9k lots, confirming a similar emphasis on term-structure adjustment rather than outright positioning. However, the flow composition differs from New York in that EFS volume (342) exceeds EFP (238), highlighting a relatively stronger influence of swap-related and OTC hedging activity. This is consistent with London’s closer integration with physical trade flows and structured transactions. The overall profile suggests a more balanced and orderly repositioning process, in line with the parallel nature of the price decline observed across the curve.

US–UK July Spread

$3,300 − (2439 x 1.351$/£) =$5ton (down from $46)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa volumes show a clear escalation into mid-April, culminating in a peak on 14-Apr (126.8k lots), followed by a normalization phase into 15–17 Apr (54.9k → 45.4k → 55.6k). This pattern is consistent with a capitulation-style spike, where extreme turnover marks the transition from orderly selling into forced liquidation. Importantly, open interest declines steadily from ~204k (early April) to ~195k by 16-Apr, confirming that the high-volume phase was dominated by long liquidation rather than new short build. The combination of falling prices, elevated volume, and declining open interest indicates that positions are being closed out rather than transferred, reinforcing the interpretation of deleveraging pressure across the market.

London Cocoa (C)

In London cocoa, the volume profile is comparatively more stable, with a gradual increase into mid-April but without the same extreme spike seen in New York. Activity peaks around 44.5k on 14-Apr, then moderates into the 15–17 Apr window (40.9k → 28.1k → 33.8k). Open interest trends differently from New York, rising consistently from ~204k in late March to above 220k by mid-April, before stabilizing. This divergence suggests that London has been absorbing flow through new positioning and roll activity, rather than experiencing outright liquidation. The absence of a sharp open interest decline indicates that positions are being rebalanced or transferred, not aggressively unwound.

Cocoa COT Analysis

The New York COT profile as of 14-Apr indicates a clear deleveraging dynamic, with total open interest falling sharply by ~29k contracts week-on-week. The most notable adjustment comes from non-commercial participants, where a substantial reduction in spread positions dominates the change, while outright longs and shorts remain relatively stable. This suggests that the recent market stress has been expressed primarily through the unwinding of relative value and structured positions, rather than a decisive build in directional shorts. Non-commercials remain net short overall, indicating that speculative length had already been reduced prior to the latest price leg lower. Commercials continue to hold a net long position but have trimmed exposure on both sides, pointing to risk reduction rather than active accumulation, which is consistent with a market under pressure rather than one finding strong physical buying support.

In London, the positioning structure is materially different, with open interest increasing over the same period, indicating that the market is still in a position-building or reallocation phase rather than liquidation. Managed Money remains heavily net short, reinforcing a clear speculative bearish bias, but the increase in both long and short positions suggests active engagement rather than exit. Swap Dealers hold a significant net long position, effectively acting as the counterbalance to speculative shorts, while Producers maintain their structural net short exposure linked to hedging flows. This configuration reflects a market where risk is being absorbed and redistributed across participant groups, rather than aggressively reduced.

The divergence between the two markets is pronounced. New York reflects a position-clearing environment, where declining open interest and spread unwinds confirm that the sell-off is driven by liquidation and deleveraging. London, in contrast, shows ongoing participation and balance-sheet absorption, with rising open interest and stable category structures indicating a more orderly adjustment. Importantly, speculative participants are already net short across both markets, particularly in London, which implies that the marginal impact of additional bearish positioning may be diminishing. The market is therefore transitioning from a phase dominated by forced exits in New York to a more balanced reallocation of risk globally, though price direction remains aligned to the downside.

Cocoa COT Report (Commitment of Traders)

Weekly Cocoa COT report showing speculative funds and commercial trader positions in ICE US and ICE Europe cocoa futures.

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Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

For the next session, the most likely scenario is a continuation of the downside, but at a slower and more fragmented pace. The market is likely to see initial stabilization or a modest bounce, followed by renewed selling into strength. Price action should remain contained below the 3350–3400 resistance zone, with downside pressure targeting the 3200–3150 area. A short-term bounce toward 3400–3450 is possible if early support holds, but without a reclaim of the 3500+ area on strong volume, any upside should be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a reversal.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.