Daily Cocoa Market Report (2 Feb 2026): Cocoa Rebounds Technically as Structural Risks Build

The March contract in New York closed the session up 17 points (+0.40%), settling at 4,217. Prices again traded below the psychological 4,000 level during the session, with a daily low of 3,940, before recovering into the close. Overall price action remains range-bound, with support just below 4,000 and resistance emerging in the 4,300–4,400 zone. Despite the rebound, the market remains below key medium- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the view that the recent strength is corrective rather than trend-changing. Trading activity in nearby spreads remains elevated, reflecting continued hedging and roll activity ahead of the March delivery period.

Deliveries / Arrivals (Côte d’Ivoire):
Cocoa arrivals at ports in Côte d’Ivoire reached 1.233 million tonnes as of February 1, down 4.4% year-on-year compared with the same period last season, according to Reuters. Weekly arrivals between January 26 and February 1 totalled 33,800 tonnes, sharply lower than 47,600 tonnes delivered during the same week a year earlier. The slowdown reinforces evidence that main-crop marketings are tailing off, tightening near-term availability even as unsold mid-crop supplies continue to hang over the forward balance.

Weather / Crop Conditions:
Reuters reports that no rainfall fell last week across most cocoa-growing regions, while farmers experienced hot conditions and a mild Harmattan wind. Growers stressed that additional moisture is urgently needed to support flowering and the development of young pods ahead of the April–September mid-crop. Conditions were particularly dry in central and western regions including Daloa, Bongouanou, Yamoussoukro, Soubre, and Divo, where rainfall was either absent or well below five-year averages. While farmers noted that the mid-crop is developing, they warned that bean quality and yields remain at risk without near-term rainfall, especially as temperatures last week ranged between 28.4°C and 30.9°C.

Weather conditions in the West African cocoa belt are turning more supportive, with forecasts showing increased rainfall across key growing areas this week. Improved moisture levels should help sustain late mid-crop pod filling and reduce immediate stress on trees following earlier dry spells.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers Call for More Rain to Support Mid-Crop Development

Cocoa farmers across Ivory Coast say additional rainfall is urgently needed to support the development of the upcoming April–September mid-crop, after large parts of the country recorded little to no rain last week. The world’s largest cocoa producer is currently in its dry season, which typically runs from

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Supply Balance & Positioning Update:
CRA revised its global cocoa balance outlook, cutting the expected 2025/26 surplus by 18,000 tonnes to 385,000 tonnes, reflecting slower arrivals and marketing frictions in West Africa. At the same time, it raised its 2026/27 surplus forecast by 138,000 tonnes to 419,000 tonnes, reinforcing the view that structural surplus risks remain deferred rather than resolved.

Positioning data from last week’s COT report shows divergent regional behaviour: in New York, funds added to long positions (+890) and index funds also increased length (+1,613), while commercials reduced exposure (-1,712), consistent with producer hedging into rallies. In contrast, London saw funds (+1,653) and commercials (+466) both adding length, underscoring stronger physical-linked demand and reinforcing London’s continued outperformance versus New York.

This positioning supports London relative strength and caps New York upside in the near term. In New York, funds are getting longer while commercials are selling into the rally, that is a classic weak-handed long vs strong-handed seller setup. It usually limits follow-through and increases the risk of pullbacks if momentum stalls, because producer hedging absorbs speculative demand. In contrast, London shows alignment: both funds and commercials are adding length, which typically reflects genuine physical demand or inventory-driven buying, not just speculative positioning. That configuration is price-supportive and tends to sustain rallies rather than fade them.

Ivory Coast Mid-Crop Rejection / Policy Risk:
Ivory Coast cocoa processors are refusing to buy upcoming mid-crop beans, arguing that official prices remain too high and demanding tax relief and structural concessions, according to Reuters. Processors are pushing for the elimination of the Living Income Differential (LID) and a reduction in the origin differential, while also seeking cuts to sector taxes introduced in recent years. The government has confirmed it will convene an inter-ministerial committee to review these demands, underscoring the seriousness of the standoff. With mid-crop production estimated at around 400,000 tonnes, and the CCC acknowledging that almost none has been sold so far, the refusal by local processors risks paralysing internal market flows. Authorities have already announced a costly buyback programme of up to 100,000 tonnes to prevent a social crisis, highlighting mounting pressure on state finances.

Ivory Coast cannot afford to let the mid-crop remain unsold. The state buyback scheme is already expensive, storage capacity is limited, and delaying farmer payments would create immediate political risk. As a result, the government is likely to quietly grant temporary relief, most plausibly a reduction or suspension of the LID for the mid-crop, lower origin differentials, and selective tax exemptions for processors, without formally abandoning its farmer-support policy.

If the government grants tax relief, lowers the origin differential, or temporarily eases the LID, processors and exporters will re-enter the market to cover immediate needs. That restart in physical buying can trigger a short-term price lift, especially if the market is thin and shorts are leaning on policy uncertainty.

However, this would be a relief rally, not a trend reversal. The buying would be tactical, focused on near-term supply, not a sign of stronger end-demand. Once mid-crop flows normalize and hedging resumes, prices are likely to cap out unless there is an additional shock such as adverse weather, logistical disruption, or renewed concern over the 2025/26 crop.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Processors Reject Mid-Crop Purchases, Call for Price Relief

Cocoa processors in Ivory Coast are refusing to purchase beans from the upcoming mid-crop, arguing that domestic prices remain unsustainably high despite the recent collapse in global cocoa markets. According to multiple government and industry sources, processors are now pressing authorities for tax relief and regulatory concessions to restore margins

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Swollen Shoot Disease:
Reuters reports that swollen shoot disease is worsening across Ivory Coast, putting an estimated 15% of national cocoa supply at risk, according to a study by non-profit Everitas. Surveys covering more than 11,600 farms show that over 41% were infected during the 2024/25 season, up sharply from 33% two seasons earlier. While infected trees may continue producing at reduced levels for several years, the disease is ultimately fatal, requiring trees to be uprooted and replanted — a process that removes supply for years. Everitas estimates yield losses of approximately 35% per infected farm, implying a material structural drag on future production even as short-term surpluses persist. The acceleration of the disease, combined with limited financial capacity for large-scale eradication, reinforces the risk that West African output erosion becomes embedded, shifting supply risk decisively into the 2026/27+ horizon.

Cocoa Swollen Shoot Disease Threatens 15% of Ivory Coast Output

Based on reporting by Reuters Cocoa swollen shoot disease is worsening in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, placing an estimated 15% of the country’s cocoa supply at risk, according to a new study by non-profit organisation Everitas. The study, which surveyed more than 11,600 cocoa

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Barry Callebaut Leadership Split:
Reuters reports that Barry Callebaut’s CEO stepped down following a high-level split over the company’s cocoa strategy, highlighting growing strain within the global chocolate supply chain. The dispute centred on whether to separate Barry Callebaut’s cocoa processing business from its chocolate operations in order to reduce exposure to volatile cocoa prices. Cocoa currently represents around 31% of group revenue and 15.5% of operating profit, making price instability increasingly difficult to absorb. Although the board ultimately rejected the split, the leadership change underscores margin pressure, collapsing cocoa demand in Europe, and strategic uncertainty among major grinders.

Barry Callebaut CEO Exit Followed Boardroom Clash Over Cocoa Strategy

Barry Callebaut’s former chief executive, Peter Feld, stepped down last month following a high-level disagreement within the company over the future of its cocoa operations, according to people familiar with the matter. The dispute, first reported by Reuters, centered on a proposal to separate the group’s cocoa processing

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

The US cocoa curve rebounded modestly after the late-January pullback, with broad-based gains across the front and mid-curve. Strength was most pronounced in Jul-26 and Dec-26, suggesting renewed willingness to re-price medium-term supply risk rather than short-covering limited to the front month.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London outperformed New York decisively, led by a sharp rebound in Mar-26, pointing to physical tightness and nearby demand strength. The steep front-month move versus a flatter back end reinforces the view that the rally is fundamentally driven, not purely speculative.

Contango vs Backwardation

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC):
The US cocoa curve remains in clear and uninterrupted contango from Mar-26 through Dec-26, with a steep front-to-back structure. This indicates that the market is not experiencing any immediate physical tightness or deliverable shortage. Instead, prices are rising further out the curve, reflecting deferred risk related to weather, crop development, and policy rather than spot scarcity. Despite the day’s rebound in prices, the absence of backwardation confirms that near-term supply conditions in New York are still comfortable and that the rally is structurally fragile in the front months.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C):
London is also in contango, but the curve is notably flatter, pointing to firmer nearby demand and tighter physical conditions relative to New York. The sharp strength in Mar-26 occurred without triggering backwardation, suggesting demand pressure rather than an outright shortage. This structure places London closer to a potential regime shift: any further drawdown in certified stocks or disruption to West African flows would likely compress the Mar–May spread first. For now, the market is signalling latent tightness, not stress.

US–UK Spread

4,217 − (3,006 x 1.367$/£) =$101 ton (down from $176/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

Volume expanded materially into Jan 30 and remained elevated on Feb 2, confirming active participation rather than a thin rebound. Open interest rose steadily through Jan 30, indicating that the late-January selloff and early-February recovery were driven by new position building, not short covering. This is structurally constructive, but with the curve still in contango, it reflects risk re-engagement, not physical stress.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London shows a clean bullish volume–OI signature. Volume has held consistently above late-January averages while open interest rose sharply into Jan 30, confirming fresh longs entering the market. This aligns with London’s front-month outperformance and flatter curve, reinforcing the view that physical and nearby demand dynamics are driving participation, not speculative churn.

Certified Inventory Stocks

What to Expect Tomorrow

Taken together, the market is sending a coherent but uncomfortable message. The last two daily pin bars around 4,200 show that selling pressure is being absorbed at this level, indicating short term exhaustion rather than panic. However, this support is occurring within a dominant downtrend, with price still below all major moving averages, momentum indicators remaining weak, and OBV failing to show meaningful accumulation. Positioning reinforces this caution: in New York, speculative longs are being met by commercial selling, which historically caps upside and turns rallies into distribution, while London continues to show stronger, more physically aligned demand. Structurally, the curve remains in contango, US inventories are rising, and near term supply stress is absent, even as arrivals slow and policy dysfunction in Ivory Coast disrupts flows. At the same time, deeper risks are building beneath the surface. Swollen shoot disease, processor resistance to administered prices, and downstream stress at major grinders all point to structural fragility being pushed into the future rather than resolved today.

The recent rebound is best interpreted as a technical stabilization, not a trend reversal. Near term price action is likely to remain range bound to corrective, with 4,200 acting as a tactical floor and 4,300 to 4,350 as heavy resistance. A sustained move higher requires clear volume expansion and follow through, which is currently absent. Until proven otherwise, rallies should be treated as sellable strength, while a clean break below 4,150 would reopen downside risk toward 4,050 and below.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.