Daily Cocoa Market Report (22 Dec 2025): Cocoa Consolidates

The March 2026 cocoa contract in New York rebounded on Monday, closing at $5,880, up $30 from Friday’s close of $5,850, as prices stabilized following last week’s liquidation-driven pullback. Trading activity remained relatively subdued at the start of the shortened holiday week, with volumes below mid-December peaks, reflecting reduced participation rather than renewed conviction. Prices continue to trade within the recent consolidation range, holding above key short-term support levels. In London, the March contract eased modestly to £4,285, down £7 from Friday’s £4,292, highlighting mild relative softness in Europe versus New York. The divergence reflects ongoing physical flow adjustments and year-end positioning, while tighter certified stocks in the U.S. continue to underpin nearby structure despite easing speculative pressure.

TRS analysts continue to observe weak ear formation and below-average pod survival in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, maintaining their production forecasts at 1.853 million tons and 519,000 tons respectively, while noting that a downward revision for West African output is increasingly likely in the coming month. In contrast, TRS has raised its Ecuador production estimate to 600,000 tons for the current harvest, underscoring the growing divergence between constrained West African supply and improving Latin American output.

The anticipated re-inclusion of cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) remains a focal point for investors, with expectations of meaningful passive inflows into early January supporting underlying market attention even as prices consolidate.

As a reminder, both the New York and London cocoa exchanges will be closed on Christmas Day, with London also closed on Friday, December 26 for Boxing Day, while New York will remain open.

Côte d’Ivoire Cocoa Arrivals

According to Reuters, cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reached approximately 968,000 metric tons by December 21, according to market data. This represents a 0.4% decline compared with the same period last season, which began on October 1.

During the week of December 15–21, around 84,000 tons of cocoa beans were delivered to the country’s main export terminals. Of this total, about 40,000 tons arrived at the port of Abidjan, while approximately 34,000 tons were delivered to San Pedro.

Weekly arrivals were slightly lower than last year, when roughly 77,000 tons were recorded during the corresponding period, underscoring the continued tightness in early-season supply.

Weather Conditions

Unseasonably heavy rainfall combined with warm temperatures across Côte d’Ivoire’s main cocoa-growing regions in mid-December is improving crop prospects for the October–March main harvest. Farmers report the heaviest rains in roughly three years for this period, supporting pod development and easing concerns over tree stress as the dry season begins. While the Harmattan has started to move south, recent moisture has strengthened trees’ resilience, with rainfall above five-year averages reported across western, southern, and central regions. Overall conditions are viewed as supportive for bean size and quality into February–March, with average temperatures remaining elevated but not yet damaging.

Ivory Coast Rains and Warm Conditions Strengthen Cocoa Crop Prospects

Weather conditions across Ivory Coast’s main cocoa-growing regions have been more supportive than usual for the October–March mid-crop, with farmers reporting heavier than normal rainfall and elevated temperatures in early December. Although the country is officially in its dry season, farmers said precipitation levels during the past week

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Weather Analysis Week 51 and 52

Past Week 51 Weather (December 15-21, 2025) Over the past week, rainfall across the core cocoa-growing regions of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana was broadly near-normal to slightly above normal, according to the RFE2 anomaly data. Positive anomalies were generally modest, concentrated in the +10 to +50 mm range, and

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Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

New York cocoa rebounded modestly, with gains concentrated in the front and mid-curve. The advance reflects short-covering and tactical re-entry following last week’s liquidation, rather than a renewed momentum push. The flatter gain in Sep-26 indicates stabilization rather than aggressive rebuilding of long exposure.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

London finished marginally softer, with minimal movement beyond the front month. The lack of follow-through confirms consolidation rather than trend deterioration, with European prices capped by physical availability and hedging flow even as New York firmed.

Backwardation Remains

Both New York and London remain in persistent backwardation, with nearby contracts trading at a premium to deferred months. This structure confirms continued tightness in prompt supply and limited certified stock availability, despite improved weather conditions in parts of Côte d’Ivoire. Importantly, the absence of contango indicates the market is not pricing surplus or storage abundance; instead, it reflects ongoing delivery risk and near-term scarcity, even as prices consolidate below recent highs.

US–UK Spread

$5,880−(4,285£×1.346$/£)=$112 (unchanged due to FX)

Volume & Open Interest

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

Trading activity in New York was moderate by historical standards, pointing to a return of measured participation after last week’s corrective phase. Open interest showed prior session stabilization, consistent with traders repositioning ahead of Friday’s data and the holiday week rather than exiting positions outright.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

London saw turnover increase slightly on Monday from late-week lows, but open interest remained stable, indicating selective hedging and position reshaping rather than fresh speculative flows.

Certified Stocks

Certified stocks continue to drift lower on both exchanges.

• US stocks: 1,636,159 bags (down from 1,641,641)
• UK stocks: 565,781 bags (down from 566,563)

Intraday / Short-Term Outlook

Across all timeframes, US Cocoa Futures remain in a bear-market structure despite short term stabilization. The weekly chart shows price still below declining long-term moving averages, confirming the primary trend is bearish, with the current 5800–5900 area representing stabilization rather than accumulation. On the daily chart, the rebound from the 5200 low is corrective, not impulsive, with price failing near former breakdown resistance around 6000–6200 and momentum indicators (RSI ~38, MACD negative) remaining in bearish territory. The 1-hour chart reflects compression and indecision beneath falling averages, with repeated rejections near 6000–6050 and weakening participation, while the 5-minute chart shows only range-bound noise suitable for scalping, not directional positioning. Overall, downside risk remains dominant unless price can achieve a sustained daily close above 6200 with improving volume; failure to hold 5800 would likely reopen 5650–5450, whereas any upside before a structural break should be treated as counter-trend mean reversion rather than the start of a new bull phase.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.