Daily Cocoa Market Report (6 March 2026): Cocoa Prices Rebound While West African Supply and Payment Issues Raise Questions

Cocoa futures ended Friday with a strong upward move, extending the recovery seen earlier in the week. The May-26 New York cocoa contract rose sharply to around $3,230 per tonne, supported by increased trading volume and improved short-term momentum. The rally occurred late in the session, with prices accelerating during U.S. trading hours and holding close to the day’s highs into the close.

London cocoa futures followed a similar pattern, with contracts across the curve posting solid gains. The coordinated rise in both markets suggests renewed buying interest after several weeks of heavy selling pressure that pushed cocoa prices to multi-month lows earlier in February.

Industry Developments

Recent reports from Ghana highlight ongoing financial stress within the cocoa supply chain. According to Reuters, Ghana’s cocoa regulator COCOBOD released approximately $337 million to licensed buying companies (LBCs) to help clear outstanding payments owed to farmers dating back to November 2025. The funds were intended to improve liquidity in the sector and ensure producers receive timely payments for their cocoa deliveries.

Despite the disbursement, several farmers and purchasing clerks report that payments have still not reached producers, raising concerns that the funds may be used by buyers to service existing bank debts rather than directly compensating farmers. Industry representatives note that cocoa buyers have accumulated significant loans, estimated between 7 and 8 billion Ghanaian cedis, after borrowing heavily to finance cocoa purchases earlier in the season.

The situation has created uncertainty across the sector, with farmers expressing frustration over delayed payments while industry associations have urged buyers to prioritize paying producers once funds are received. Persistent payment delays could disrupt the purchasing system and potentially affect the pace of cocoa deliveries if farmers become reluctant to sell without guaranteed payment.

Ivory Coast Supply Update

New information from Côte d’Ivoire suggests that cocoa purchases this season may be higher than previously reported. During the announcement of the mid-crop farm-gate price, Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagné Koné stated that more than 1.5 million tonnes of cocoa have already been purchased from farmers since the start of the marketing season.

This figure appears higher than earlier estimates reported by some market observers. Reuters recently indicated that arrivals had reached roughly 1.335 million tonnes, implying that cumulative purchases may be stronger than previously assumed.

Ivorian cocoa analyst Ousmane Attai Ouedraogo noted that the disclosure provides unusual transparency for the sector and could offer the market better visibility into actual supply levels.

“More than 1.5 million tonnes of cocoa have already been purchased from producers, despite the marketing difficulties that have affected the sector in recent months,” Ouedraogo wrote.

Authorities also indicated that the government mobilized 231 billion CFA francs to maintain the farm-gate price at 1,200 CFA per kilogram, supporting the price guarantee mechanism for farmers.

Weather Conditions

Weather conditions in West Africa remain generally favorable for cocoa development, with seasonal rainfall supporting pod growth across key producing regions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture following recent rains is helping sustain the ongoing mid-crop development, although localized dry periods continue to be monitored in some inland areas.

Temperatures remain within normal seasonal ranges, reducing immediate stress on cocoa trees. However, market participants continue to watch weather patterns closely, as prolonged dry conditions or irregular rainfall during the coming weeks could affect flowering and pod filling, potentially influencing production prospects for the remainder of the season.

Weather

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Futures Performance

Cocoa futures posted a strong advance between 5 March and 6 March 2026, with prices rising across the entire forward curve in both New York and London. The gains were particularly strong in the nearby and mid-crop contracts, indicating renewed buying interest and continued market concern about supply availability for the upcoming crop cycles.

The most striking feature of the data is the very large spread volume, particularly in New York where 25,739 contracts traded as spreads, representing more than half of total market activity. This trading activity suggests the rally was not simply speculative buying in the front month, but rather active repositioning along the curve. Heavy spread trading combined with rising outright prices often signals that traders are adjusting expectations about future supply tightness, particularly for the 2026 crop cycle.

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

The sharp move higher across the forward curve indicates a renewed bullish shift in sentiment. The strongest gains occurred in the May and July contracts, suggesting active positioning by traders ahead of the mid-2026 delivery period. Such broad gains across nearby and deferred contracts often signal that market participants are pricing in persistent supply risks rather than short-term disruptions.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London futures followed the same bullish pattern as New York. The rally was strongest in the nearby months, with Mar-26 and May-26 gaining more than 120 GBP. The consistent increases across all forward months confirm strong market participation and reinforce the view that traders remain cautious about the pace of production recovery in West Africa.

Forward Curve & Market Structure

The cocoa forward curve on 6 March 2026 remained clearly upward sloping in both New York and London, indicating that deferred contracts continue to trade at a premium to nearby months. In New York, prices ranged from 3,138 USD for Mar-26 to 3,399 USD for Dec-26, while in London the curve increased from 2,292 GBP to 2,427 GBP over the same period. This structure suggests that the market still prices in tighter supply conditions later in the 2026 crop cycle rather than an immediate shortage.

The strongest price increases were concentrated in the May–September contracts, which are the most actively traded parts of the curve. This indicates that traders are focusing on the mid-2026 supply window, where uncertainty around West African production remains high. The consistent rise across deferred contracts reinforces the view that market participants remain cautious about the speed of production recovery in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.

US–UK May Spread

$3,230 − (2324 x 1.341$/£) =$113 ton (up from $85/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

Recent trading data show a clear divergence between price momentum and participation levels, which is important for assessing the sustainability of the current cocoa rally.

New York Cocoa (ICE US – CC)

Total trading volume in New York declined notably during the week leading into 6 March 2026. After reaching 71,477 contracts on 19 February, daily activity gradually cooled. Volumes fell to 37,179 on 4 March and further to 32,496 on 5 March, before recovering modestly to 45,025 on 6 March.

At the same time, open interest expanded significantly throughout the period. It increased from 154,642 contracts on 17 February to 191,019 contracts on 5 March, representing a rise of more than 36,000 contracts.

This combination of rising open interest with declining trading volume typically indicates that new positions were being added while market activity slowed.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe – C)

The London market shows a similar but slightly weaker pattern. Trading volume peaked at 61,745 contracts on 20 February, but steadily declined afterward. By 4 March, volume had dropped to 21,831 contracts, before recovering to 33,479 contracts on 6 March.

Open interest in London remained elevated but showed less clear expansion. It increased slightly from 214,189 contracts on 20 February to a peak of 218,163 contracts on 26 February, then gradually declined to around 204,665 contracts by 5 March.

This pattern suggests that while the market remains active, some positions may have been reduced or rolled forward as the nearby contract approaches expiration.

Speculative Positioning (Commitment of Traders)

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for 3 March 2026 shows that speculative positioning in cocoa remains bearish, although some changes suggest the market may be stabilizing after the sharp price decline seen earlier this year.

In the U.S. cocoa market, non-commercial traders (primarily hedge funds) hold 36,178 long contracts and 53,535 short contracts, leaving them with a net short position of roughly 17,357 contracts. This confirms that speculative funds continue to maintain a bearish stance toward cocoa prices. At the same time, commercial participants—typically producers, merchants, and processors—remain net long, holding 105,724 long positions versus 89,949 short positions, reflecting their role in hedging physical exposure.

Changes in positions during the reporting week show that speculative traders increased both long and short exposure, while commercial traders also expanded activity on both sides of the market. Overall open interest increased by 13,448 contracts, suggesting that new positions were entering the market rather than existing trades simply being closed.

The European cocoa market (ICE London) shows a similar pattern. Producer and merchant participants remain net short, which is typical for physical hedgers, while managed money funds maintain a net short position, with 5,432 long contracts compared to 34,481 short contracts. This indicates that speculative investors continue to position for downside risk in cocoa prices, even after the recent rebound.

Compared with the previous week, managed money slightly reduced its bearish exposure, with short positions increasing modestly but spread positions declining. Meanwhile, swap dealers increased their long exposure, which may reflect hedging activity from structured products or commodity-linked investments.

Cocoa COT Report (Commitment of Traders)

Weekly Cocoa COT report showing speculative funds and commercial trader positions in ICE US and ICE Europe cocoa futures.

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Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

What to expect tomorrow

Cocoa futures (May-26, New York) showed a strong intraday recovery on Friday, with prices rallying from around 3,080–3,100 to near 3,230, supported by higher trading volume and rising momentum indicators. On the short-term charts, MACD turned positive, RSI moved into bullish territory, and OBV increased, confirming buying pressure during the session. Despite this rebound, the daily chart still shows a broader downtrend, as prices remain well below the major long-term moving averages. For Monday, the market is likely to test resistance near 3,250–3,300 if bullish momentum continues, while 3,150 and 3,100 remain the key support levels. A break above 3,300 could extend the recovery, whereas failure to hold above 3,100 would suggest the recent rally was only a short-term corrective bounce.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.