Daily Cocoa Market Report (8 April 2026): Cocoa Rebounds on Dollar Weakness as Supply and Demand Signals Remain Mixed

• Cocoa futures rebounded sharply
• Ivory Coast arrivals reaching approximately 1.45 million tonnes
• With early estimates pointing to a roughly 5% year-on-year decline in Easter chocolate sales
• Weather conditions in West Africa are broadly supportive
• In Ghana, Minority Chief Whip Frank Annoh-Dompreh questioned whether recent price declines were politically influenced and suggested farmgate prices could be raised during the 2028 election year.

Cocoa futures rebounded sharply, driven primarily by macro factors rather than a clear shift in fundamentals. A weaker U.S. dollar, which dropped to a four-week low, triggered short covering in New York cocoa, supporting a strong upward move. In contrast, gains in London were more limited as the British pound strengthened to a five-week high, effectively capping upside in sterling-denominated contracts. The broader macro backdrop also improved, with a temporary ceasefire easing geopolitical tensions and supporting risk sentiment, as equity markets moved higher.

Despite the rebound, the underlying supply picture remains mildly bearish. Ivory Coast arrivals have edged slightly higher year-on-year, with cumulative shipments reaching approximately 1.45 million tonnes since the start of the marketing season, marginally above last year’s pace. This increase in flow continues to weigh on the market, reinforcing the perception of improving availability compared to earlier tightness.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Edge Up 0.2% Year-on-Year by April 5

Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producer, reached approximately 1.445 million metric tons by April 5, according to exporters. This represents a marginal increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last season, which began on October 1. Between March 30 and

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At the same time, demand-side signals remain soft. Early estimates for Easter chocolate sales suggest a decline of around 5% compared to last year, pointing to weaker consumer uptake during a key seasonal period. This aligns with broader concerns that high prices over recent months have begun to suppress consumption, particularly in mature markets.

Weather conditions in West Africa are currently mixed but generally supportive. Recent scattered showers across parts of Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Cameroon have improved soil moisture, and similar patterns are expected to continue in the near term. These conditions are favorable for mid-crop development, particularly flowering, although consistent rainfall will be necessary to sustain crop potential.

Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

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Additional political commentary has emerged from Ghana, where Frank Annoh-Dompreh, the Minority Chief Whip in Parliament, has questioned whether the recent decline in cocoa prices may have been politically influenced. He suggested that farmgate cocoa prices could potentially be increased during an election year, specifically pointing to 2028. While not an immediate market driver, such statements highlight ongoing sensitivities around producer pricing policies and the role of government intervention in key origin countries.

Near-term attention is shifting toward key market events that could influence positioning. New York cocoa options for May expiry are set to expire this Friday, which may lead to increased volatility and position adjustments. In addition, first-quarter grinding (milling) data is due next Thursday and will be closely watched for confirmation of the recent signs of weak demand. The first notice day for the May contract in New York falls on April 24th, which may begin to shift focus toward delivery dynamics and roll activity in the coming sessions.

Futures Performance

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

The comparison of prices between 7-Apr and 8-Apr shows a clear and broad-based rebound across both the London (C) and New York (CC) cocoa futures curves, although the magnitude and structure of the move differ meaningfully between the two markets.

The New York cocoa market exhibits a significantly stronger and more aggressive upward move. Front contracts rallied by roughly 175–185 points, with gains remaining substantial even in deferred months, albeit tapering to around 140–150 points further out the curve. This indicates a high-beta response, where speculative or macro-driven flows are more pronounced. The consistency of gains across maturities confirms that this was not isolated short covering in the front but rather a broader repricing event. However, similar to London, the curve still shows mild flattening, as the front end outperformed the back.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

In the London cocoa market, the upward move is consistent but relatively moderate. Front-month contracts such as May-26 and Jul-26 increased by approximately 60–65 points, while the gains gradually diminished along the curve, falling into the 20–40 point range for deferred maturities. This produces a slightly flattening curve dynamic, where nearby contracts outperform the back end. Notably, the Mar-28 contract posted a small decline, indicating some residual weakness or lack of conviction in longer-term pricing. Structurally, this suggests a short-term bullish correction rather than a fundamental shift in longer-term expectations, with the market still cautious about forward supply-demand balance.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

EFP (Exchange for Physical), activity is present but not dominant, and it declines notably on 8-Apr versus 7-Apr, especially in London where EFP drops from triple-digit prints in some contracts to near-zero in most maturities. In New York, EFP remains visible but is also reduced in breadth. This suggests that the price rebound on 8-Apr was not primarily driven by physical market engagement or hedging flows. Instead, the reduced EFP footprint indicates that the rally was more financially driven, with less participation from commercial players tying futures to physical cocoa transactions.

EFS (Exchange for Swaps) shows a similar pattern of contraction. On 7-Apr, there is measurable EFS activity in NY cocoa—particularly in the front contracts—indicating some degree of structured or OTC-linked positioning. By 8-Apr, EFS becomes minimal or disappears across most maturities. This sharp drop implies that swap-related flows and structured hedging were not contributing meaningfully to the upward move. In practical terms, this reinforces the interpretation that the rebound lacked strong institutional or structured product involvement and was instead driven by more directional futures activity.

Spread activity, however, remains consistently significant, especially in New York. While total spread volume decreases on 8-Apr compared to 7-Apr in London, it remains elevated relative to outright volume. In NY cocoa, spread volume stays robust and even increases slightly in aggregate terms. This indicates that participants were actively trading the curve rather than simply lifting outright positions. The persistence of spread trading alongside a flattening price structure supports the view that the market was undergoing active repositioning—likely involving roll activity, curve adjustments, and relative value trades between maturities.

US–UK May Spread

$3,177 − (2397 x 1.339$/£) =$-32ton (up from $-82)

Volume and Open Interest

The volume and open interest dynamics between late March and early April reveal a clear shift in market participation and positioning, particularly around the 7-Apr to 8-Apr price rebound.

NY Cocoa (CC)

In New York cocoa (CC), total volume shows a pronounced escalation into early April, culminating in very high activity on April 7th (67,970) and April 8th (67,319). This represents a sharp increase compared to the 20–40k range observed in the preceding sessions, aside from the March 31st spike. Such elevated volume concurrent with a strong price increase is typically indicative of aggressive participation rather than passive short covering alone. Open interest trends reinforce this interpretation: OI rises steadily from ~194k on March 24th to ~204–205k by early April, including an increase on April 7th. This combination, rising prices, rising volume, and rising open interest, is characteristic of new long positioning entering the market, suggesting that the rally had structural backing rather than being purely technical. The absence of OI data on April 8th limits confirmation for that session, but the setup from April 7th is already conclusive in directional terms.

London Cocoa (C)

In contrast, the London cocoa market (C) displays a more moderate and less aggressive participation profile. Volume increases into April 7th (45,596), but then drops notably on April 8th (31,513), even as prices continue to rise. This divergence, price up but volume down, suggests weaker follow-through and potentially reduced conviction behind the move. Open interest in London trends upward more steadily and consistently, rising from ~204k to ~217k over the period. This indicates gradual position accumulation rather than abrupt inflows. However, unlike New York, the combination of lower relative volume expansion and smoother OI growth points to a market that is being lifted more passively, likely following external signals rather than initiating the move.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

The daily structure remains technically bearish, with price still trading below the major moving averages, but the market has transitioned into a stabilization phase after the prior selloff. Recent price action suggests a base forming around the 3100–3200 range. Momentum indicators are recovering from oversold but remain weak overall, indicating that this is a corrective consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

On the hourly timeframe, the rebound from ~3000 to ~3200 has stalled beneath key resistance levels. Price is now consolidating around short-term averages, while longer-term resistance (90/200 SMA) remains overhead. Momentum has flattened, with RSI near neutral and MACD losing upward slope, signaling that the initial bullish impulse is fading rather than extending.

Intraday structure (5-minute) confirms this loss of momentum. Price is compressing below ~3200 with lower highs forming, and short-term indicators are rolling over. This reflects exhaustion after the recent rally and a shift toward balance rather than continuation.

For the next session, the most likely outcome is a range-bound to slightly bearish move, with a bias toward testing support in the 3120–3150 area. A break below this zone would expose downside toward 3050–3000. A bullish continuation would require a decisive break and hold above 3200 with strong volume, which is not currently supported by momentum conditions.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.