Coffee prices in Brazil consolidated lower again on Tuesday, according to Notícias Agrícolas, as the market reacted to improved domestic supply conditions. The availability of coffee in producing regions has increased, reducing urgency among buyers and easing near-term tightness concerns. While producers are not aggressively selling, the market tone has shifted as better crop flow meets softer international futures performance. The decline reflects short-term supply comfort rather than structural weakness in demand.

On the international front, the International Coffee Organization reported that global green coffee exports rose 9.2% year-on-year in December, reaching 10.15 million 60-kg bags. The expansion was driven primarily by robusta shipments, which surged 26.5%, largely supported by Vietnam’s strong export pace. In contrast, arabica exports were mixed: Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals declined, while the “Other Milds” category posted strong growth. The data indicates that global supply growth is currently concentrated in robusta, maintaining comfortable availability for commercial blends and soluble coffee production.

Despite the strong December export data, Brazil’s January shipment figures show a sharp contraction. Total exports fell nearly 31% year-on-year to 2.78 million bags. Arabica exports declined roughly 29%, while conilon (robusta) shipments dropped close to 46%. Industry representatives attribute the reduction to well-capitalized farmers holding stocks, lower available arabica inventories, and stronger domestic demand for conilon. This suggests tighter short-term export flows from Brazil, even as domestic spot prices soften.

Looking ahead, Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is projected at 67.7 million bags, according to industry advisors. While this marks a recovery from the estimated 62.1 million bags produced in 2025, it remains below the 2020 record. Arabica output is expected at 44.2 million bags, with robusta at 23.5 million bags. The crop recovery follows weather-related challenges last season, but it does not point to an overwhelming surplus. A small global surplus is projected for 2026, implying a more balanced market rather than oversupply.

In summary, the coffee market is currently navigating a short-term easing in Brazilian physical supply alongside strong robusta export performance, while medium-term fundamentals remain more nuanced. Export slowdowns from Brazil, moderate crop recovery, and weather risks suggest that the present bearish tone is tactical rather than structural. The market is adjusting to improved flow conditions, but it is not yet entering a prolonged oversupply cycle.

Futures Performance

Coffee C (Arabica – KC)

Robusta Coffee (RC)

Coffee futures posted a broad decline on 10 February compared to the previous session, with pressure more pronounced in London than in New York. ICE Robusta futures fell sharply across the curve, with the front five contracts down between 1.8% and 2.4%, indicating a parallel shift lower and broad-based liquidation rather than isolated front-month weakness. The March 2026 contract dropped 88 points (-2.29%), while losses gradually moderated toward November.

In ICE Arabica, the selloff was more contained and front-loaded. The March 2026 contract declined 5.10 cents (-1.70%), while deferred contracts fell by less than 1%. This structure suggests controlled long liquidation and near-term supply adjustment rather than aggressive structural repricing. Overall, robusta is leading the downside, while arabica remains comparatively resilient.

Contango / Backwardation

Both ICE Robusta and ICE Arabica futures remain in clear backwardation as of 10 February. In London, the March–May and March–November spreads show a strong front-month premium, confirming that nearby supply still carries higher value despite the recent selloff. New York arabica displays the same inverted structure, with March trading well above deferred contracts. The decline in prices shifted the curve lower but did not eliminate the backwardation, indicating that the market correction reflects short-term liquidation rather than a transition into structural oversupply.

Arabica/Robusta spread

Arabica $6,483 1MT
Robusta $3,755 1MT

Spread 43.6%

Volume & Open Interest

ICE Arabica (KC)

Arabica volumes remained elevated throughout the past week, consistently trading between 70,000 and 89,000 contracts. This confirms strong participation during the recent price correction. However, open interest gradually declined from its early-week high, indicating that the selling pressure has primarily come from long liquidation rather than aggressive new short positioning. The combination of heavy volume and easing open interest suggests position reduction and profit-taking, not structural bearish expansion.

ICE Robusta (RC)

Robusta volumes have been moderate compared to arabica, ranging between 24,000 and 35,000 contracts. The key development is the notable increase in open interest observed on February 9, which contrasts with the softer price action. This divergence implies fresh positioning entering the market during the decline. In a falling price environment, rising open interest typically signals new short exposure rather than liquidation.

Certified Inventory Stocks

ICE Arabica Certified Stocks

Certified stocks declined by 1,743 bags, indicating a modest draw in deliverable supply. However, pending grading increased to 78,573 bags, suggesting a growing pipeline of coffee awaiting certification. The higher passed grading figure and reduced failed volume point to improving approval rates, which could translate into higher certified stocks in the coming sessions.

ICE Robusta Certified Stocks

Robusta certified stocks declined by 3,167 tons between February 9 and February 10. This represents a modest draw in exchange-registered inventory.

While the reduction is not large in percentage terms, it signals some tightening in available deliverable supply. However, given the broader context of robusta’s recent price weakness and rising open interest earlier in the week, the stock draw alone is not sufficient to signal structural tightening. It may reflect routine warehouse movements rather than a shift in underlying supply balance.

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet

Brazil’s customs clearance data shows that total physical exports for February to date stand at 422,814, slightly below January’s 432,693 at the same reference point. While overall volume is marginally lower, the internal composition has shifted. Arabica shipments remain firm, conilon (robusta) exports have dropped sharply compared to January, and soluble exports have increased significantly. This indicates that Brazil’s export flow remains active, but the robusta component is notably weaker, while value-added soluble coffee is gaining relative weight.

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

On the certification side, issuance of Certificates of Origin totals 683,351 versus 806,656 in January. This confirms that the export pipeline is functioning but not accelerating. The month-on-month decline is largely driven by reduced conilon certification, while arabica continues to dominate the export mix. The smaller certification volume suggests a moderation in forward shipment preparation compared to January.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.