Daily Coffee Market Report (11 Feb 2026): Exports Contract in Brazil While Global Coffee Flows Rebalance

Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Association, Cecafé, reported that January green coffee exports fell 30.74% year on year, totaling 2.53 million bags. Arabica exports declined 29.01% to 2.35 million bags, while Conilon robusta exports dropped sharply by 45.61% to 181,559 bags.

For the first seven months of Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee year (July to June), cumulative green coffee exports are down 23.16% year on year, totaling 21.16 million bags. Arabica exports for the period reached 18.66 million bags, down 16.42%, while Conilon exports fell significantly by 49.54% to 2.69 million bags. Soluble coffee exports also declined 22.22% to 2.03 million bags, partly impacted by ongoing 30% tariff restrictions on Brazilian instant coffee entering the United States.

The weaker export performance reflects tighter carryover stocks from the previous season and a smaller Arabica crop in 2025/26. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Conilon crop is forecast to reach record levels, but strong domestic consumption continues to absorb a significant share of production.

Globally, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that December 2025 exports increased 10.50% year on year to 11.94 million bags. For the first three months of the 2025/26 global coffee year (October to September), cumulative exports are up 5.50% to 33.76 million bags.

Regional performance varied significantly. South America recorded a 15% decline in December exports, with Brazil’s shipments down 18.50% compared to the same month last year. In contrast, exports from Mexico and the Central American washed Arabica bloc surged 81.30% to 820,000 bags. Asia also posted strong gains, with exports up 38.40% to 5.15 million bags, led by Vietnam, whose shipments rose 29.70% to 3.43 million bags as production recovers toward normalized levels. African exports increased 13.30%, driven by Ethiopia and Uganda.

The ICO maintained its global supply estimate for 2024/25 at 177.51 million bags, up 5.20% year on year, while global consumption is projected at 175.07 million bags, up 1.40%. Updated projections for 2025/26 are still pending.

Looking ahead, early independent forecasts for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop suggest production around 67.7 million bags, including 44.2 million bags of Arabica and 23.5 million bags of Conilon. While slightly below some forecasts calling for 70 to 71 million bags, the outlook still points to a significantly larger crop that could help stabilize global supply.

Futures markets have recently weakened sharply, with London down 8.77% and New York down 11.45% since February 1. The correction has disrupted origin trading, while upcoming holidays in Brazil (Carnival) and Vietnam (Tet Lunar New Year) are expected to temporarily reduce market activity.

Certified Arabica stocks in New York fell by 1,743 bags to 426,321 bags, while pending grading stocks increased to 78,573 bags. The London–New York arbitrage narrowed to 123.88 US cents per pound, reflecting a 42.11% discount for Robusta relative to Arabica.

Overall, the market remains in a phase of consolidation, balancing weaker Brazilian exports, recovering Asian flows, and expectations of a larger upcoming Brazilian harvest.

Futures Performance

Coffee C (Arabica – KC)

Robusta Coffee (RC)

Arabica/Robusta spread

Arabica $6,489 1MT
Robusta $3,763 1MT

Spread 42%

Volume & Open Interest

KC – Arabica Coffee Futures

In Arabica (KC), total volume expanded sharply from late January into early February, rising from 31,091 on January 26 to a peak of 88,960 on February 6. This surge in participation coincided with a steady build in open interest, which climbed from 172,171 to a high of 179,573 by February 3. The simultaneous rise in volume and open interest during that phase indicates fresh position building rather than short-term liquidation, new money was entering the market. However, from February 6 onward, volume remained elevated (still 77,758 on February 10), while open interest began to decline, falling from 178,816 on February 6 to 175,044 by February 10. That combination of high volume with falling open interest signals long liquidation or short covering rather than new structural positioning. In short, early February strength reflected position expansion; the subsequent sell-off reflected position reduction.

RC – Robusta Coffee Futures

In Robusta (RC), the structure is somewhat different. Volume peaked earlier, reaching 50,591 on February 3, but then trended lower into February 10 (24,634) and February 11 (21,271). Open interest, however, rose consistently from 78,007 on January 27 to 86,462 by February 10. Rising open interest during declining volume suggests positions are being held rather than aggressively rotated, and the market is carrying an expanding net exposure. Notably, open interest increased into the February 10 decline, which implies that new shorts were likely being added rather than merely longs exiting. That is structurally more bearish than what we observed in Arabica.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.