Daily Coffee Market Report (12 Feb 2026): Coffee Futures Rebound Sharply After Technical Selloff; Brazil Crop Outlook and Currency Moves Remain in Focus

Coffee prices closed Thursday, February 12, with strong gains on international exchanges, marking a sharp technical rebound after a sequence of intense losses in recent sessions. The move was largely corrective in nature, as futures had reached multi-month lows, particularly in Arabica traded in New York. Despite the bullish close, underlying fundamentals remain broadly bearish for both Arabica and Robusta, reflecting expectations of a record Brazilian crop in 2026 and improved weather conditions during the critical grain-filling stage.

The realignment of positions came after prices had tested their lowest levels in months. Weather developments in Brazil reinforced supply pressure, as Climatempo reported that Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica-producing region, received 72.6 mm of rainfall in the week ending February 6, equivalent to 113 percent of the historical average. In addition, Conab projected Brazilian coffee production in 2026 at a record 66.2 million bags, a 17.2 percent increase year on year, with Arabica output rising 23.2 percent to 44.1 million bags and Robusta increasing 6.3 percent to 22.1 million bags.

The day followed options expiration and was characterized by intense contract rollovers. Approximately 69 percent of trades occurred between March and May, totaling 11,278 lots in March and 25,831 lots in May. On Wednesday alone, 12,435 contracts, equivalent to 3.52 million bags, were rolled, the highest rollover volume recorded in 27 years according to Agnocafé. The spread between open interest in March and May had exceeded 30,000 contracts in recent sessions and turned negative by more than 57,000 lots, suggesting aggressive anticipation of short positions in March ahead of first notice day.

In Asia, Reuters reported that Vietnam’s domestic coffee prices rose slightly as farmers held back sales ahead of the Lunar New Year. Prices in the Central Highlands ranged from 94,300 to 95,600 dong per kilogram, above last week’s 93,800 to 94,800 dong range. In Indonesia, persistent rains have caused some Robusta cherries to fall prematurely, potentially affecting output. Around 50 percent of the 2025-26 crop has been harvested. Sumatra Robusta premiums remained unchanged at US$280 over the March contract, while May premiums were quoted at US$260. Robusta futures had earlier fallen to a six-month low of US$3,700 before recovering.

Currency movements also influenced the session. The U.S. dollar weakened intraday toward R$5.15 against the Brazilian real, encouraging short covering, before strengthening late in the day to close near R$5.20. Exchange rate volatility continues to affect export competitiveness and speculative positioning.

Beyond market pricing, Brazil’s rural credit data revealed tightening financial conditions in the agricultural sector. In the first seven months of the 2025/26 Harvest Plan, rural credit disbursements totaled R$207.3 billion, nearly 13 percent less than the R$237.4 billion granted in the same period of the previous season. Funds allocated to operating costs and investments fell 23 percent, with production cost financing declining from R$135.1 billion to R$117 billion and long-term investment loans dropping from R$65 billion to below R$50 billion. Marketing credit decreased 14 percent to R$19.6 billion, while loans for industrialization rose 42 percent to R$20.6 billion. The decline reflects record default levels, rising indebtedness, and greater risk aversion in the rural credit market.

Overall, Thursday’s gains were driven primarily by technical factors and short covering after an extended oversold phase. While near-term momentum has turned positive and key resistance levels are now in focus at 300.60 and 303.75 cents for May Arabica, the broader supply outlook remains heavy due to favorable Brazilian weather and projections of record production. The durability of the rebound will depend on whether fresh long positions replace short covering, how currency markets evolve, and whether crop estimates are confirmed in the coming weeks.

Futures Performance

Coffee C (Arabica – KC)

Arabica futures show a uniform bullish continuation, with gains ranging between 2.16% and 2.41% across the curve. The strength is slightly concentrated in the front month (Mar-26), suggesting stronger nearby demand or short covering pressure.

Importantly, the forward months moved almost proportionally, which indicates this was not merely a technical squeeze in the front contract but a parallel upward shift of the curve. That behavior is consistent with fresh long positioning rather than spread-driven distortion.

The slight reduction in percentage gains toward the back of the curve suggests marginal front-end demand dominance, but the structure remains broadly constructive.

Robusta Coffee (RC)

Robusta posted gains between 1.87% and 2.44%, with the strongest percentage move occurring in Sep-26. Unlike Arabica, where the front month led the rally, Robusta shows a slightly stronger response in the mid-curve.

Arabica/Robusta spread

Arabica $6,645 1MT
Robusta $3,836 1MT

Spread 42.28%

Volume & Open Interest

KC – Coffee C (Arabica)

RC – Robusta Coffee

From late January into early February, KC Arabica showed aggressive participation expansion, with volume surging from about 31k contracts to peaks near 89k while open interest climbed toward 179k, confirming fresh long creation during the rally. However, the sharp drop in open interest to 160,820 by February 11 signals significant liquidation, most likely short covering combined with some long profit taking. This means the latest price strength was partially driven by position unwinding rather than purely new structural buying, which raises sustainability questions unless open interest begins to rebuild. In contrast, RC Robusta displayed a steadier and more constructive profile. Volume remained moderate, mostly between 25k and 35k with one spike above 50k, while open interest rose consistently from about 78k to over 89k without sharp contractions. This indicates gradual net new positioning rather than panic driven covering. Structurally, Robusta’s rally appears more stable and accumulation based, whereas Arabica’s move carries stronger speculative and short covering characteristics.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Arabica ICE Stocks

Robusta ICE Stocks

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.