Daily Coffee Market Report (17 Feb 2026): Coffee Futures Sink to Multi-Month Lows

Tuesday (17.2.26) was decisively negative for coffee futures on both major international exchanges. In New York and London, contracts closed with losses of roughly 4–5%, pushing prices to their lowest levels in approximately seven and a half months for Arabica and six months for Robusta. The move was technically aggressive and broadly distributed across the forward curve.

Fundamentally, the market remains weighed down by constructive projections for Brazil’s upcoming harvest. Although weather irregularities persist across parts of the main producing regions, expectations continue to favor a more positive supply cycle. The trade is closely monitoring temperature and rainfall dynamics. Between February 23 and March 2, forecasts indicate weakening positive temperature anomalies, with temperatures trending near or slightly below average across much of the Central-West, Southeast, and interior Northeast, accompanied by above-average rainfall in these areas. In contrast, parts of the Northeast, North, and South are expected to register temperatures about 1°C above average. At this stage, forecasts do not signal material stress to the developing crop.

Macro factors added further pressure. The U.S. dollar index rose approximately 0.5% against a basket of major currencies, strengthening the dollar and amplifying downside pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Even without a direct USD/BRL reference due to the Brazilian holiday, currency strength contributed to the selling bias.

Market structure also played a role. With the March contract approaching first notice day next Thursday, rollover activity intensified, encouraging additional liquidity and positioning adjustments. Notably, the session lacked fresh fundamental catalysts; the acceleration appeared heavily influenced by algorithmic and technically driven selling as key chart levels gave way.

Domestic Brazilian trading remained suspended due to the Carnival holiday, with significant physical market activity expected to resume only on Thursday. Indicative prices for a 60-kg bag of quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais held around R$ 2,060, reflecting a temporary disconnect between domestic spot assessments and the sharp volatility observed on ICE.

Overall, the session was characterized by technical breakdown, algorithmic momentum, and macro currency strength rather than new fundamental supply shocks. The market now sits at multi-month lows, with positioning and near-term weather developments likely to determine whether further downside extension or a corrective rebound emerges.

Futures Performance

ICE Coffee C (KC)

ICE London (RC)

With 16 February closed in the United States due to Presidents’ Day, liquidity conditions were distorted and price discovery was incomplete. The decisive move occurred on 17 February, when both Arabica (ICE Coffee C) and London Robusta repriced sharply lower on a close-to-close basis.

In Arabica, comparing 13 February to 17 February CLOSE# prices, the decline was broad and technically significant. The March contract fell from 297.55 to 283.95 (-13.60), while May dropped from 296.25 to 283.75 (-12.50). July declined from 292.40 to 280.40 (-12.00), September from 288.40 to 276.70 (-11.70), and December from 285.65 to 273.00 (-12.65). The move was structurally parallel across the forward curve, averaging just over 4% in percentage terms. There was no meaningful distortion between nearby and deferred months, indicating this was not a front-month squeeze unwind but rather a coordinated liquidation across maturities.

Robusta mirrored this dynamic. Comparing 16 February to 17 February CLOSE# prices, March declined from 3,855 to 3,700 (-155), May from 3,794 to 3,632 (-162), July from 3,714 to 3,553 (-161), September from 3,649 to 3,491 (-158), and November from 3,584 to 3,425 (-159). Percentage declines were clustered around 4–4.5%, again demonstrating a uniform downward shift in the entire curve rather than localized weakness.

Contango vs. Backwardation

Despite the sharp close-to-close decline, both Arabica and Robusta futures remained firmly in backwardation, confirming that the selloff was flat-price driven rather than structural. In Arabica, the March–December spread narrowed only marginally from roughly -11.90 cents on 13 February (297.55 vs. 285.65) to about -10.95 cents on 17 February (283.95 vs. 273.00), meaning the curve shifted lower in parallel without transitioning into contango. Robusta showed similar behavior: the March–November inverse moved from approximately -271 USD (3,855 vs. 3,584) on 16 February to about -275 USD (3,700 vs. 3,425) on 17 February, effectively maintaining and slightly widening backwardation. The persistence of inverted structures across both markets indicates that nearby supply tightness remains embedded in pricing; this was systematic liquidation or technical repricing, not a signal of surplus development or a structural loosening of the physical balance.

Arabica/Robusta spread

May contracts

Arabica $6,254 1MT
Robusta $3,632 1MT

Spread 41.93%

Volume & Open Interest

Arabica (KC – ICE US)

Arabica volume peaked early in the period, with 88,960 contracts traded on 6 February, before gradually declining into mid-month. By 13 February, volume had fallen to 41,799 contracts, and on 17 February — the session following the U.S. holiday — turnover recovered to 55,061 contracts. This rebound in activity coincided with the sharp price decline, indicating that the selloff was not a low-liquidity anomaly but occurred on meaningful participation.

Open interest tells the more important story. Total OI declined steadily from 179,573 contracts on 3 February to 157,043 by 13 February — a reduction of more than 22,500 contracts in eight trading days. That is a significant contraction and strongly indicative of long liquidation rather than fresh short accumulation. The market was shedding exposure before the break and continued repricing lower once U.S. participation returned. The combination of falling prices and falling open interest confirms position reduction, not new bearish conviction.

Robusta (RC – ICE Europe)

Robusta shows a different structural dynamic. Volume contracted sharply into mid-February, dropping from 50,591 contracts on 3 February to just 12,723 on 16 February, before rebounding to 29,758 on 17 February during the selloff. The recovery in turnover alongside price weakness signals active repositioning rather than passive drift.

Open interest, however, moved in the opposite direction compared to Arabica. It increased from 78,007 contracts on 27 January to 91,273 by 16 February — a steady build of over 13,000 contracts. Rising open interest during a period that ultimately transitions into a price decline suggests new short positioning entering the market, rather than simple liquidation.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Robusta Daily Comparison Table

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.