Daily Coffee Market Report (18 Feb 2026): Coffee Futures Stabilize, But Downtrend Pressure Persists

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US ended Wednesday in positive territory, though advances were relatively limited. The May contract remained comfortably below the key 290.99 cents per pound threshold, signaling that bullish momentum is still constrained. While prices managed a modest rebound, with May closing up 0.72 percent, the broader technical structure continues to reflect weakness after the market broke below several important indicators in recent sessions.

Despite expectations for a more meaningful corrective rally following the steep declines of the past two weeks, buying interest has so far been insufficient to generate a sustained recovery. The market remains technically oversold. However, structural factors such as tight nearby availability and constrained inventories have not yet translated into a stronger countertrend move.

Intraday, the May contract traded within a 665 point range. Turnover was lighter and less dynamic, partly due to the ongoing liquidation of the March position ahead of first notice day. Approximately 36,000 March lots were traded by the close, reflecting position adjustments rather than fresh directional conviction.

Fundamentally, no major new developments emerged. The narrative remains dominated by heavy selling pressure over recent weeks, without a decisive shift in sentiment. Although supportive elements persist, including limited certified stocks and restricted short term supply, buyers have not aggressively re-entered the market.

In Brazil, market participation gradually resumed following the Carnival holiday. However, activity remained subdued, particularly in the physical market. Sellers largely stayed on the sidelines, still absorbing the sharp declines recorded earlier in the week in New York. Indicative prices for high quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais held near R$ 2,060 per bag.

Vietnamese participants continue to show limited activity due to the Lunar New Year holiday, with broader engagement expected next week.

According to Vicente Zotti, director of Pine Agronegócios, there are currently no strong fundamental drivers capable of triggering a significant upward move. While much of the recent downside may already be priced in, the approach of Brazil’s new harvest is expected to increase producer participation. This could leave futures vulnerable to renewed downside testing.

Russia and Ethiopia have significantly expanded bilateral trade, with coffee playing a central role. According to Russian Ambassador Evgeny Terekhin, Ethiopian coffee exports to Russia surged from approximately 46 million dollars in 2024 to 123 million dollars in 2025, adjusted for inflation. Import volumes more than doubled, rising from 8,300 tons to around 18,300 tons.

The growth is part of broader trade expansion, including increased Russian exports of fertilizers, machinery, and energy equipment, alongside Ethiopian shipments of coffee, flowers, and textiles. Ethiopian specialty coffees from Sidamo and Harar have gained particular traction among Russian consumers.

In Honduras, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock announced new strategic initiatives to strengthen the national coffee sector. Measures include the reactivation of the National Coffee Council, known as Conacafé, aimed at enhancing coordination between public and private stakeholders, improving long term policy design, and boosting competitiveness and resilience across the value chain.

Futures Performance

ICE Coffee C (KC)

The entire curve posted moderate gains on 18 February. Strength was concentrated in the front month, with March leading the advance. The move was corrective rather than structural, consistent with a technical rebound after the heavy losses earlier in the week. Back months rose more modestly, indicating no aggressive shift in longer-term supply expectations.

ICE London (RC)

Robusta outperformed Arabica on a percentage basis. Gains ranged from 1.1% to 1.6%, with May showing the strongest recovery. This suggests stronger short-covering or technical repositioning in London compared to New York.

Contango vs. Backwardation

On 18 February 2026, both the Arabica and Robusta coffee futures curves remained firmly in backwardation. In ICE Coffee C, the March 2026 contract closed at 286.65 cents per pound, with each subsequent delivery month trading progressively lower, down to 253.00 cents for March 2028. This clear downward slope indicates that nearby supply continues to command a premium over forward availability. The structure suggests tightness in the prompt market, likely reflecting limited certified stocks and short-term physical constraints. However, the decline along the curve is orderly rather than steep, implying that the market expects improved supply conditions as new crop volumes enter the pipeline, particularly from Brazil.

A similar structure is visible in ICE London Robusta futures. The March 2026 contract closed at 3,742 dollars per ton, with prices gradually easing through the forward months to 3,295 dollars by September 2027. This sustained backwardation reflects continued tightness in nearby Robusta supply, while also signaling expectations of gradual normalization over time. The absence of contango in either market indicates that traders are not pricing a surplus scenario. Despite the recent technical selloff in flat prices, the term structure continues to reflect underlying physical firmness rather than structural oversupply.

Arabica/Robusta spread

May contracts

Arabica $6,287 1MT
Robusta $3,689 1MT

Spread 41.33%

Volume & Open Interest

ICE Coffee C (KC)

ICE London Robusta (RC)

In ICE Coffee C, trading activity has clearly moderated over the period from 3 February to 18 February. Volume peaked on 6 February at 88,960 contracts, following elevated activity earlier in the week, but then steadily declined. By 13 February, volume had dropped to 41,799 contracts, and on 18 February it fell further to 36,908. This contraction in turnover suggests that the aggressive repositioning seen during the earlier selloff phase has largely subsided. The absence of expanding volume on the latest rebound indicates that the move higher was more likely short covering than fresh speculative buying.

Open interest in Arabica shows a decisive downward trend. It declined from 179,573 contracts on 3 February to 156,645 by 17 February. That represents a substantial reduction in outstanding positions over roughly two weeks. Falling open interest alongside price weakness typically signals long liquidation rather than new short accumulation. In other words, participants have been exiting positions rather than building new directional exposure. The market is deleveraging, not expanding.

In ICE London Robusta, volume has also softened. Early February sessions showed activity between 30,000 and 50,000 contracts, but volumes fell sharply mid-month, reaching 12,723 contracts on 16 February. A modest recovery to 29,758 contracts occurred on 17 February, followed by 21,383 on 18 February. The pattern suggests reduced speculative intensity compared to earlier sessions.

Robusta open interest, however, tells a different story from Arabica. It has steadily increased from 78,007 contracts on 27 January to above 91,000 contracts by mid-February. Rising open interest during a period of price weakness implies new positions are being established rather than liquidated. This often reflects fresh short positioning or structured hedging activity entering the market.

Overall, Arabica appears to be in a phase of position liquidation and reduced participation, consistent with a corrective and technically driven market. Robusta, by contrast, shows structural build-up in open interest despite softer prices, suggesting a more active positioning environment and potentially stronger conviction among participants.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.