Daily Coffee Market Report (23 Feb 2026): Arabica Coffee Extends Losses, Closes 2.68% Lower on Monday

Arabica coffee futures posted a significant decline on Monday (23), with the market closing sharply lower amid improving weather conditions in key producing regions and growing expectations of ample supply in the upcoming crop cycle.

On the New York exchange, arabica contracts fell approximately 2.68% in the most active positions, reflecting increased selling pressure. Robusta futures in London also ended the session lower, although losses were comparatively more moderate.

Market sentiment has been heavily influenced by improved rainfall across coffee-growing areas in Brazil. Since mid-January, precipitation levels have increased substantially, easing concerns about crop stress and reinforcing expectations for a potentially large 2026 harvest.

In Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, rainfall reached 62.8 mm during the week ending February 13. This volume represents approximately 138% of the historical average for the period. The favorable moisture conditions have supported crop development and added further pressure to prices.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, producers are nearing completion of the first round of irrigation for the 2026/27 crop, with roughly 90% of the work finalized. Reports indicate that around 45% of the upcoming crop has already been forward sold. Market participants are now monitoring potential price recovery during the Lunar New Year trading period.

At the close of trading in New York, arabica contracts finished near session lows, reflecting a broader perception that short term supply risks have eased. The combination of improved weather in Brazil and steady crop progress in Vietnam continues to weigh on global coffee prices.

Futures Performance

KC Coffee Futures

Arabica experienced a broad and aggressive selloff. Losses ranged from -2.02% in Mar-26 to -2.68% in Sep-26 and Dec-26, showing that pressure was not limited to the front month but extended across the curve. The fact that deferred contracts (Sep-26 and Dec-26) fell slightly more than the front suggests a mild bearish flattening, with the market removing forward risk premium rather than reacting to an immediate supply shock alone. This type of move typically reflects improving crop expectations and reduced weather anxiety.

RC Robusta Coffee Futures

Robusta, by contrast, declined more moderately. Losses ranged from -0.14% in Mar-26 to around -0.95% in Sep-26, showing a steadier and more contained adjustment. The front month was relatively resilient, while deferred months weakened more noticeably, indicating mild forward pressure but no panic liquidation.

Contango vs. Backwardation

As of 23-Feb-2026, the arabica (KC) futures curve is in clear and consistent backwardation across all listed contracts, with each deferred month priced progressively lower than the nearby. March 2026 is the highest-priced contract at 281.15, and the curve slopes steadily downward through March 2028 at 244.95. This structure indicates that the market continues to price tighter prompt supply relative to forward availability, maintaining a nearby premium. However, the slope is orderly rather than steep, suggesting that while short-term tightness persists, participants expect improved production and supply normalization into the 2026/27 cycle.

Robusta (RC), in contrast, shows a slightly different configuration. The March to May 2026 spread is in mild contango, with May priced above March, indicating limited immediate tightness or possibly delivery-related positioning in the front month. Beyond May, the curve shifts into consistent backwardation, with each deferred contract trading lower than the previous one through September 2027. This suggests that while nearby robusta supply is not under acute pressure, the broader market still anticipates comfortable forward availability. Overall, arabica exhibits stronger structural tightness than robusta, and the backwardation profile is more pronounced and uniform in KC than in RC.

Arabica/Robusta spread

May contracts

Arabica $6,133 1MT
Robusta $3,563 1MT

Spread 41.9%

Volume & Open Interest

KC – Coffee C (Arabica)

In KC arabica futures, trading activity has contracted sharply over the period from February 5 to February 23. Daily volume peaked at 88,960 contracts on February 6 and then trended steadily lower, falling to 32,936 on February 20 and further to 26,943 on February 23. This represents roughly a 70 percent decline from the early-month peak. Such a reduction in participation suggests that the most aggressive phase of repositioning has already occurred and that momentum-driven activity is fading. The market appears to be transitioning from active adjustment to a consolidation phase.

Open interest in KC reinforces this interpretation. It declined from 178,590 on February 5 to 160,947 by February 20, a net reduction of 17,643 contracts. Importantly, this decline in open interest occurred alongside falling prices. When price and open interest drop together, the dominant force is typically long liquidation rather than fresh short selling. In other words, existing bullish positions are being closed rather than new bearish exposure being aggressively built. This is bearish in the short term, but structurally it reflects position cleanup rather than a new wave of conviction selling.

RC – Robusta

Robusta futures display a more stable profile. Daily volume has fluctuated within a narrower band, generally between 20,000 and 30,000 contracts, without the sharp collapse seen in arabica. Participation remains steady, indicating that the robusta market is not experiencing the same level of speculative exit pressure.

Open interest in robusta rose from 83,933 on February 9 to a mid-period peak of 91,273 on February 16, before easing back to 83,070 by February 20. The overall net change across the window is minimal. This pattern suggests temporary position buildup followed by mild liquidation, rather than structural unwinding. Compared to arabica, robusta positioning appears more controlled and less speculative.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Robusta certified stocks declined sharply from 737,833 to 677,677 between February 20 and February 23, a substantial draw of 60,156 lots. This is a meaningful reduction in visible exchange supply and contrasts strongly with the relatively minor movement observed in arabica. A decline of this magnitude typically reflects significant physical load-outs, reclassification of warehouse stocks, or contract-related adjustments rather than routine daily fluctuation. If sustained, such a draw can tighten nearby availability and potentially influence front-month spreads, especially if replenishment into certified inventories does not accelerate in the coming sessions.

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet.

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.