Daily Coffee Market Report (19 Feb 2026): Coffee Futures Test 280 Support Before Late-Session Recovery

Coffee futures have stayed under pressure in recent weeks after Brazil’s crop agency Conab projected a sharp rebound in 2026 output. Conab estimates total Brazilian production will rise 17.2% year on year to a record 66.2 million bags, led by a 23.2% jump in Arabica to 44.1 million bags, while Robusta is seen up 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

In Vietnam, growers are reported to be well advanced in the first irrigation cycle, close to completion, which supports more uniform flowering for the 2026/27 crop. Around 45% of that crop is said to be already sold, with producers heading into Lunar New Year celebrations while watching for any price recovery.

On ICE US, Arabica finished Thursday close to unchanged after spending most of the session under heavy selling pressure. Losses moderated late in the day as some buying emerged, helping the most actively traded contracts stabilize, while some deferred months still posted small declines. The session was driven primarily by technical trading rather than fresh fundamental headlines. Earlier support areas were tested and briefly broken, but late day short covering and selective fund buying helped the market recover toward flat levels.

Brazilian export data for roasted coffee, extracts, essences, and concentrates showed stronger early month performance. Average daily shipments in the first 10 working days of February 2026 were up 34.7% versus the same period a year earlier at 472 tons. Total shipped volume through the second week of February reached 4,729 tons, with revenue of US$56.367 million, compared with US$86.974 million for all of February 2025.

In Brazil’s domestic market, trading was subdued, with participants describing conditions as unusually quiet and sellers remaining cautious. Indicative pricing for a bag of quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais was near R$2,060.

Market commentary continues to emphasize that Conab’s larger crop narrative has been interpreted bearishly, but that the supply story may be more complex. Brazil is widely viewed as entering the new season with limited carryover stocks, and a meaningful portion of the new crop is expected to satisfy previously contracted sales as well as strong domestic demand. Vietnam’s contribution is seen as largely anticipated, while Indonesia faces production risk after heavy rains and flooding. Inventories in other origins and at consuming locations are also described as tight, which could limit how far bearish sentiment can extend without confirmation in physical flows.

Weather forecasts in Brazil are pointing to increased cloud cover, the return of rain, and the risk of isolated storms across several regions. A cold front along the coastal corridor between Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo is expected to raise the chance of heavier precipitation in the Southeast, while high temperatures and humidity may fuel afternoon and evening storm development typical of summer conditions. Despite these weather dynamics, currency moves were not viewed as the main driver on the day, even as the US dollar softened against the Brazilian real.

Futures Performance

KC – Coffee C (Arabica)

RC – Robusta Coffee

In summary, 19 February showed relative strength in Arabica front months but curve-wide weakness in Robusta. KC exhibited a split structure (front firm, back soft), whereas RC displayed broad-based downward pressure. This divergence suggests that the weakness was more pronounced in the Robusta complex, while Arabica experienced a more technical and contract-specific adjustment rather than outright bearish sentiment across the strip.

Contango vs. Backwardation

On 19 February 2026, both Arabica (KC) and Robusta (RC) futures curves were in clear backwardation, meaning nearby contracts traded at higher prices than deferred months. In KC, Mar-26 closed at 287.35 and progressively declined to 272.55 by Dec-26, showing a steady downward slope. RC displayed the same structure, with Mar-26 at 3,673 falling consistently to 3,410 by Nov-26. There was no segment of the curve in contango. This backwardated structure indicates that immediate supply is valued more highly than future supply, suggesting relatively tight nearby availability and no economic incentive to store inventory for later delivery. Overall, both markets reflect front-end strength and structurally firm near-term fundamentals rather than surplus conditions.

Arabica/Robusta spread

May contracts

Arabica $6,301 1MT
Robusta $3,629 1MT

Spread 42.4%

Volume & Open Interest

KC – Coffee C (Arabica)

Arabica (KC) shows a clear contraction in both volume and open interest. Total daily volume peaked early (88,960 on Feb 6 and 85,048 on Feb 9) and then trended steadily lower, collapsing to 36,908 on Feb 18 and 41,964 on Feb 19. More importantly, open interest declined materially from 178,816 (Feb 6) to 156,645 (Feb 17), indicating net position liquidation rather than fresh positioning. The simultaneous drop in volume and OI suggests long liquidation and risk reduction, not new short build-up. This is characteristic of a market unwinding exposure rather than initiating a new directional trend.

RC – Robusta Coffee

In contrast, Robusta (RC) presents a different structure. While volume also softened through mid-February (falling from 50,591 on Feb 3 to 21,383 on Feb 18), open interest increased consistently from 78,007 (Jan 27) to above 91,000 by Feb 16–17. Rising OI alongside moderating volume implies new positions were being established earlier in the move, likely building structural exposure. The later decline in volume without a collapse in OI suggests positions are being held rather than aggressively liquidated.

KC reflects net liquidation and risk reduction, while RC reflects earlier position build-up followed by stabilization, indicating different underlying participation dynamics between the two coffee markets.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.