Daily Coffee Market Report (2 Feb 2026): Rising Robusta Exports from Indonesia and Uganda Offset by Weather Uncertainty in Brazil

This report marks the start of a daily coffee market update. Historical data coverage for parts of 2025 is still being expanded and refined. Depth and granularity will increase over time as the dataset is completed.

Indonesia: Strong Robusta Export Performance from Sumatra

Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra, the country’s leading coffee-producing island, reported robusta coffee exports of 185,453 bags in December, representing a 52.06% increase year-on-year, bringing total exports for the month to 541,672 bags.

Cumulative robusta exports for the first nine months of the April 2025 to March 2026 coffee year reached 5,217,056 bags, up 80.56% compared to the same period last year, reflecting both improved production and strong international demand.

Indonesia’s April 2025–March 2026 coffee crop, composed of approximately 85% robusta and 15% arabica, is conservatively forecast to reach a median of 12.60 million bags. Domestic consumption is estimated at 4.81 million bags, a level typically supported by permitted imports of foreign-origin coffees, primarily from Brazil and Vietnam.

Uganda: Export Growth Led by Arabica Surge

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) reported that December coffee exports totaled 502,582 bags, a 21.67% increase year-on-year.

• Robusta exports rose marginally by 0.49%, totaling 367,627 bags
• Arabica exports surged 185.76%, reaching 134,955 bags

The UCDA attributed the sharp arabica increase to improved production and peak harvesting in the Central and Eastern regions.

For the first three months of the October 2025 to September 2026 coffee year, Uganda exported 1,828,630 bags, up 39.68% year-on-year. Export revenues in December climbed 30.29%, totaling USD 149.86 million.

Uganda, now Africa’s leading robusta producer and the fourth-largest robusta exporter to non-producing consumer markets, is expected to produce 7.50 million bags this season, comprising:

• 6.40 million bags of robusta
• 1.10 million bags of arabica

This represents an 11.95% increase over the previous year.

Weather Developments: Brazil in Focus

Coffee prices continue to react sharply to weather signals from Brazil. Above-average rainfall is supportive for production but negative for prices.

Climatempo reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ending January 30, or 117% of the historical average.

An Itaú BBA report cautioned that prices will remain highly sensitive to erratic weather, noting that the coming months are critical for grain formation.

Meanwhile, the Carvalhaes Office highlighted growing speculation around Brazil’s 2026 crop size, with some traders projecting 70–76 million bags. Brazilian agronomists remain skeptical, emphasizing that while continued rains through February and March could lift output above the 2025 harvest, current trader estimates appear premature and overstated.

StoneX’s projected 267,000-ton global cocoa surplus for 2025/26 underscores a clear shift in market balance, driven primarily by improving West African production and demand rationing caused by elevated prices. While inventories remain depleted after the 2023/24 deficit, StoneX expects stock rebuilding to accelerate, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising toward 46% by the end of 2026/27, signaling a gradual normalization of fundamentals and a structurally less tight cocoa market beyond the near term.

Futures Performance

Arabica Coffee (KC)

Robusta Coffee (RC)

ICO Price Indicator

30 January 2026

Contango vs Backwardation

As of 02 February 2026, both Arabica and Robusta coffee futures are trading in backwardation, with front-month contracts priced at a clear premium to deferred maturities. In Arabica (KC), March-26 closed at 335.25 ¢/lb, declining steadily through the curve to 299.70 ¢/lb in December-26, indicating that nearby supply is valued more highly than forward delivery. This structure reflects tighter prompt availability or stronger immediate demand, even though the backwardation is orderly rather than aggressive. Robusta (RC) exhibits a similar but steeper backwardation, with March-26 settling at 4,020 versus 3,748 in November-26, signalling pronounced near-term tightness and weaker forward pricing expectations. The sharper front-end premium in Robusta suggests greater pressure in the spot market relative to deferred supply, potentially driven by origin logistics, inventory positioning, or short-term demand mismatches. While neither market is displaying disorderly stress, the presence of backwardation in both curves confirms that current pricing dynamics are being driven by nearby fundamentals rather than pure carry, and it materially strengthens the case that recent price action is rooted in physical market signals rather than speculative structure alone.

Arabica/Robusta spread

Arabica $7,346 10MT
Robusta $4,020​ 10MT

Spread 45.27%

Volume & Open Interest

Arabica Coffee (KC)

From early January through month-end, Arabica futures activity showed a clear build-up in participation. Daily volumes oscillated in the 25–40k range for most of the period, before accelerating sharply in the final week of January, peaking at 61,800 contracts on 30 January. This surge in turnover coincided with a steady rise in open interest, which climbed from ~172k on 8 January to nearly 178k by 30 January. The combination of rising volume and rising open interest points to net new positioning entering the market, rather than short covering or purely intraday churn. Importantly, this positioning occurred while prices were already under pressure, suggesting that selling into weakness was being absorbed by fresh participation, rather than a disorderly liquidation.

Robusta Coffee (RC)

Robusta futures displayed a different structural profile. Volumes increased progressively through January, moving from the low-teens early in the month to consistent mid-20k and low-30k levels in the second half, reflecting improved liquidity and active two-way trade. Open interest, however, remained remarkably stable, fluctuating within a narrow band between ~72k and ~79k contracts. This stability, despite higher volumes, indicates that Robusta’s activity was driven largely by position rotation and hedging, rather than aggressive accumulation of new directional bets. Notably, open interest peaked around 79.6k on 23 January and failed to extend meaningfully higher thereafter, even as prices continued to weaken into the end of the month.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Customs Clearance Brazil (60-kg bags)

Issue of Origin Certificates (60-kg bags)

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.