Daily Coffee Market Report (27 Feb 2026): Coffee Markets See Technical Session, ICE Arabica Slips 0.41%

Coffee markets closed the week with a largely technical and uneventful session on Friday, February 27, 2026. Arabica futures on ICE Futures US ended lower, with the most active May contract declining 0.41% to settle at 280.75 cents per pound. Despite the daily loss of 155 points, prices managed to hold above the psychologically important 280.00 level. On a weekly basis, however, the May contract still posted a gain of 0.92%, reflecting relative stability within a broader consolidation phase.

Friday’s activity was primarily chart-driven, with no major fresh fundamental developments influencing direction. Market participants continued debating Brazilian production prospects. While some international financial institutions maintain projections of a bumper crop, growers and agronomists in producing regions remain skeptical, citing weather irregularities that could limit the actual availability of supply. Concerns about weather conditions in several key origins also continue to underpin medium-term uncertainty.

In Brazil’s physical market, trading remained sluggish. Sellers largely stayed on the sidelines, awaiting firmer price levels before committing volumes. The estimated price for a bag of quality Arabica in southern Minas Gerais remained around R$ 1,950. Export data from Cecafé indicated that Brazilian shipments as of February 26 reached 2,322,217 bags for the month, marking a 30.2% increase compared to the same period previously. The total included 1,800,099 bags of Arabica, 190,654 bags of Robusta, and 240,774 bags of soluble coffee. Meanwhile, certified Arabica inventories on ICE Futures US increased by 11,174 bags to 477,229 bags, adding mild pressure to overall sentiment.

In Asia, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam rose as trading resumed after the Lunar New Year holiday. In contrast, Indonesian premiums softened, with producers anticipating a mini-harvest in April or shortly after Eid al-Fitr. On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. Producer Price Index rose 0.5% in January, accelerating from November’s 0.2% increase and matching December’s 0.4% gain. On a 12-month basis, producer prices were up 2.9%. Services drove the increase, particularly wholesale and retail trade margins, while goods prices retreated. The U.S. dollar strengthened moderately against the Brazilian real but did not materially influence futures behavior.

Separately, Luckin Coffee reported strong unaudited fiscal year 2025 results, with total net revenue rising 43% year-over-year to RMB 49.29 billion (US$ 7.03 billion). Operating profit from company-owned stores reached RMB 6.44 billion, while revenue from partner stores increased 49.7% to RMB 11.59 billion. The company opened 8,708 new stores during the year, bringing its global store count to 31,048 locations, reflecting aggressive expansion both domestically and internationally.

Futures Performance

Arabica (KC) Futures

Arabica futures extended their decline on February 27, with losses visible across the entire curve when compared to February 26 closes. The weakness was not limited to the front month. While March fell a modest 0.70 cents, the pressure intensified in the deferred contracts, with December losing 2.35 cents. This pattern suggests broader curve-based selling rather than isolated nearby liquidation. The back-end softness indicates either macro-driven positioning adjustments or reduced confidence in longer-term tightness narratives.

Robusta (RC) Futures

Robusta futures displayed a more uniform downward adjustment. March remained unchanged, but May through November contracts declined steadily, with losses increasing progressively into the deferred months. This even distribution of weakness reflects broad participation on the sell side rather than concentrated front-month pressure. The curve behavior suggests positioning adjustments rather than panic liquidation.

Contango vs. Backwardation

Arabica futures remain in clear backwardation, with each deferred contract priced below the nearby month. March closed at 284.90, while December traded down at 266.00, maintaining a steady downward slope across the curve. This structure reflects continued front-end tightness and stronger nearby demand relative to forward expectations.

However, deferred contracts fell more than the front month during the latest session, leading to slight flattening of the backwardation. While the curve remains inverted, the reduced slope suggests some easing in longer-term bullish sentiment and a gradual adjustment in forward supply expectations.

Robusta futures show a similar pattern. The curve is firmly in backwardation, with March at 3,680 and November at 3,425. The spread between nearby and deferred contracts remains pronounced, signaling tight prompt availability.

Arabica/Robusta spread

May contracts

Arabica $6,190 1MT
Robusta $3,629 1MT

Spread 41.37%

Volume & Open Interest

Arabica (KC)

On February 27, Arabica (KC) volume rebounded to 28,330 contracts, up from 18,801 the previous day. This represents a noticeable pickup in activity after several sessions of declining participation. However, compared to early-month levels above 80,000 contracts, overall engagement remains subdued. The increase suggests short-term repositioning rather than a return of strong directional conviction.

As of February 26 open interest stood at 165,147 contracts, reflecting a steady rebuild from mid-month lows near 158,000. If open interest holds or increases alongside the volume rebound, it would indicate new positioning entering the market. If it declines, the higher volume would likely represent short covering or liquidation activity.

Robusta (RC)

In Robusta (RC), February 27 volume reached 13,607 contracts, slightly above the prior day’s 12,828 but still near the lower end of the month’s range. This confirms a quiet trading environment with limited speculative intensity. Open interest had risen gradually to 83,500 by February 26. The combination of low-to-moderate volume and relatively stable open interest suggests consolidation rather than aggressive trend development.

COT Analysis

The latest Commitments of Traders report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that large speculative funds reduced their net long exposure by 4.47% as of February 24. Funds held 46,072 long positions against 34,265 short positions, resulting in a net long position of 11,906 contracts. Despite the technically oversold condition of the market, there has been no convincing rebound attempt, and prices continue to respect well-established trading ranges without generating sufficient momentum for a recovery.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Arabica (KC)

Robusta (RC)

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet.

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.