Daily Coffee Market Report (3 Feb 2026): Aggressive Selling Sweeps Coffee Futures as Technical Levels Break

Coffee futures remained under heavy pressure on international exchanges on 03 February, with both Arabica in New York and Robusta in London experiencing sharp, technically driven sell-offs that pushed prices to multi-week lows. In New York, Arabica March futures fell nearly 5%, sliding below 320 c/lb after failing to hold early-session gains and breaking key technical support levels. Losses have now exceeded 5,000 points over the past five sessions, with trading dominated by speculative liquidations rather than fresh fundamental developments. Volatility expanded sharply, volume increased significantly, and the market showed clear signs of oversold conditions, as weather concerns temporarily receded behind momentum-based selling.

London Robusta futures mirrored this weakness, with March contracts dropping more than 5% to around $3,810/mt, breaking decisively below the $4,000, $3,900 and $3,850/mt thresholds and reaching their lowest levels in roughly six weeks. Selling intensified after initial attempts to rally failed, with speculative sellers maintaining firm control and rollovers progressing as front-month positions were reduced. Elevated volumes confirmed active participation, reinforcing that the move reflected risk reduction and repositioning, rather than a sudden change in physical market availability.

Beyond technical factors, recently favorable weather conditions in Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions had been reinforcing bearish sentiment earlier in the move. Improved rainfall across parts of southeastern and central-western Brazil during recent weeks supported soil moisture and early crop development, contributing to rising production expectations and reducing near-term weather risk premiums. As a result, weather concerns temporarily faded from price formation, allowing technical and positioning dynamics to dominate trading. According to Itaú BBA, however, the market is now entering a critical phase for bean formation, meaning prices are likely to become increasingly sensitive to ongoing and upcoming weather developments rather than past improvements. In this context, Brazil remains central to market attention, with outcomes still dependent on rainfall persistence and temperature behavior through February and March.

Additional pressure is emerging from the global supply side, particularly in the Robusta market. Indonesia reported a 52% year-on-year increase in December exports of Sumatran Robusta, while Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, confirmed a 17.5% increase in 2025 coffee shipments, totaling 1.58 million tons. These export gains are weighing on London prices and reinforcing the bearish tone, even as physical markets in Brazil remain largely inactive, with producers reluctant to sell into sharply falling futures.

Overall, the coffee market is caught between short-term technical exhaustion and improving weather-driven supply expectations, with speculative positioning amplifying downside moves. Until clearer confirmation emerges on the 2026/27 crop size and selling pressure stabilizes, market participants remain cautious, with rallies viewed as corrective rather than trend-changing.

Weather – Brazil

Current meteorological reports show sharp regional contrasts in Brazil’s weather patterns. In the southern coffee-producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, an intense heat wave is underway, with temperatures running well above seasonal norms and a red-level alert issued by the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) for many municipalities. This heat persists into the coming days, and conditions are forecast to be hot and predominantly dry, which could heighten stress on late-season crops and reduce soil moisture if it continues.

At the same time, broader parts of the South and Central-West regions are under active rainfall and storm alerts, with forecasts calling for periods of heavy showers, thunderstorms and strong winds, including risks of localized downpours and associated agricultural impacts. This spatial divergence, heat and dryness in the far south versus intense precipitation farther north, suggests ongoing weather volatility for Brazil’s agricultural belt, with potential implications for fieldwork, soil conditions, and planting/rain-dependent areas.

Futures Performance

Arabica Coffee (KC)

All contracts fell sharply by around 5–6%, with the heaviest pressure in the nearby months. The uniformity of losses across the curve points to broad long liquidation rather than a shift in fundamentals.

Robusta Coffee (RC)

Robusta mirrored Arabica, posting 5–6% declines across all maturities. The even distribution of losses confirms speculative de-risking and technical selling, not easing physical tightness.

ICO Price Indicator

02 February 2026
(US cents / lb)

Contango vs Backwardation

Despite the sharp selloff on 03-Feb, the Arabica curve remains in backwardation. Nearby contracts continue to trade at a premium to deferred months, indicating that physical tightness persists. The move lower reflects speculative long liquidation, not a transition into surplus conditions. A shift into contango would be required to signal a genuine structural change, that has not occurred.

Robusta also remains backwardated, with front-month contracts holding a premium over later deliveries. Although losses were severe, the curve structure confirms that near-term supply constraints are still priced in. The selling pressure appears financial in nature, driven by de-risking rather than easing availability.

Arabica/Robusta spread

Arabica $6,990 10MT
Robusta $3,810 10MT

Spread 47.5%

Volume & Open Interest

Arabica Coffee (ICE – KC)

Robusta Coffee (ICE – RC)

Trading volume surged sharply on the selloff, confirming forced participation and broad liquidation rather than thin, opportunistic selling. Open interest had been rising into the decline, indicating the market was over-positioned, which amplified the downside move. The combination of high volume and previously elevated open interest supports the view that the drop was driven by position cleansing, not an exit of market participants or a collapse in physical demand.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.