Daily Coffee Market Report (5 Feb 2026): Coffee Markets Weighed by Supply Growth as Robusta Demand Strengthens

Coffee markets remained under pressure in Asia, with prices in Vietnam easing on Thursday, tracking broader declines in global markets and subdued physical trade activity, according to Reuters. Traders reported sluggish demand amid a widening gap between bid and ask prices, as farmers and exporters held back sales in anticipation of potential price recovery. In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, farmgate prices fell to 93,000–94,000 dong per kg, down from last week’s 101,200–102,300 dong range. Robusta futures for May delivery settled at $3,689 per tonne, their lowest level since mid-December, pressured by improved supply expectations from Brazil and stronger export performance from Indonesia. Seasonal factors also weighed on trade, with exporters selling less aggressively ahead of the Lunar New Year, while Indonesian Robusta premiums to the March contract widened, reflecting tight nearby availability despite larger bean sizes reported in Lampung.

On the supply side, Brazil’s national crop agency Conab raised expectations for the 2026 coffee harvest to a record 66.2 million bags, up 17.1% year on year, driven by the biennial recovery in Arabica production and continued growth in Robusta output. Arabica production is forecast to rise more than 20% to 44.1 million bags, while Robusta output is expected to increase by 6.4% to 22.1 million bags, supported by favourable weather, improved yields, and better farm management practices. Conab noted that productivity gains, including a 12.4% rise in yields, are helping offset structural cost pressures, even as global prices remain elevated.

Despite these optimistic supply projections, global trade flows continue to show divergent demand trends by coffee type. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports rose 10.45% year on year in December to 11.94 million bags, marking the third month of the 2025/26 crop year. Cumulative shipments for the first three months of the season reached 33.76 million bags, up 5.5% versus the prior year. However, over the 12 months ending in December, Arabica exports declined by 1.12% to 84.67 million bags, while Robusta shipments surged 8.83% to 57.56 million bags, reinforcing evidence of ongoing substitution away from higher-priced Arabica.

Weather remains a variable risk factor. In southern Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul continues to face alerts for low humidity and heatwave conditions, raising concerns over moisture stress despite the otherwise favourable national outlook. While these conditions have not yet altered official production forecasts, they add uncertainty to late-cycle development and warrant close monitoring.

Futures Performance

Arabica Coffee (ICE-KC)

Robusta Coffee (ICE-RC)

A clear Arabica–Robusta divergence emerged between 04-Feb and 05-Feb. Arabica futures continued to drift lower, with modest but consistent declines across the curve, confirming the absence of dip-buying interest following the earlier liquidation. The selling pressure was incremental rather than aggressive, indicating residual long unwinds and weak demand-side conviction rather than forced selling.

By contrast, Robusta futures staged a broad, curve-wide rebound, gaining between +50 and +85 USD per tonne, driven by short-covering and renewed physical support. The uniformity of the rebound across maturities signals a structural bid rather than a front-month squeeze, reinforcing Robusta’s relative strength amid tight availability and substitution demand. This divergence highlights an increasingly bifurcated coffee market, where Arabica remains demand-constrained, while Robusta continues to attract defensive and structural support.

Contango / Backwardation

Both Arabica and Robusta coffee curves are firmly in contango, with prices declining progressively as maturities extend, indicating that the market is currently pricing time value and carry rather than immediate physical scarcity. In Arabica, the front-month Mar-26 contract settles clearly above the deferred structure, with a smooth, orderly downward slope through Dec-26 and into the outer years. This configuration signals adequate nearby availability and no delivery stress, consistent with weak front-end momentum and the absence of aggressive buying interest following the earlier liquidation. The shallow nature of the contango also suggests that while supply is sufficient in the near term, the market is not discounting a major surplus, instead maintaining a cautious carry structure.

Robusta exhibits a similar contango profile, but with a noticeably flatter curve, particularly across the front and mid-curve maturities. The price differential between Mar-26 and subsequent contracts narrows relatively quickly, reflecting stronger structural support in Robusta linked to tighter availability and ongoing substitution demand from roasters. Despite the curve remaining in contango, the limited steepness implies that the market is reluctant to discount Robusta aggressively forward, even after the recent volatility. This contrasts with Arabica, where the curve shape more clearly reflects demand sensitivity and weaker conviction.

Arabica/Robusta spread

Arabica $6,790 10MT
Robusta $3,668 10MT

Spread 45.97%

Volume & Open Interest

Across the second half of January into early February, both Arabica (KC) and Robusta (RC) showed rising open interest, confirming that the broader price move was accompanied by net position accumulation rather than simple turnover. This indicates that the market was becoming increasingly crowded heading into early February, leaving it vulnerable to liquidation.

In Arabica, open interest climbed steadily from the 170k area to above 179k contracts by early February. This rise occurred alongside progressively higher daily volumes, culminating in a sharp volume spike on 04-Feb, which coincided with the strongest price pressure. The combination of record-high volume and a stall in open interest growth on that session strongly suggests forced long liquidation, rather than fresh short initiation. The elevated but slightly lower volume on 05-Feb indicates residual position adjustment, not renewed aggressive selling.

Arabica Coffee (ICE-KC)

In Robusta, the pattern was more controlled. Open interest rose from the mid-74k area to around 80k contracts, confirming steady participation, but without the same degree of overcrowding seen in Arabica. Volume expanded on down days but contracted more quickly on the rebound, indicating healthier positioning and better balance between longs and shorts. This explains why Robusta prices stabilised and rebounded more decisively than Arabica.

Robusta Coffee (ICE-RC)

Certified Inventory Stocks

Arabica

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.