Daily Coffee Market Report (9 Feb 2026): Coffee Market Stabilizes After Sell-Off as Vietnam Exports Surge and Supply Risks Persist

Arabica coffee prices recovered part of the losses from the previous session and closed higher on Monday, 09 February, consolidating gains after last week’s sharp sell-off. The rebound was driven by technical stabilization and spread support rather than aggressive new long positioning, leaving prices still below pre-selloff resistance levels and confirming the move as corrective rather than trend-extending.

On the supply side, Vietnam reported a sharp acceleration in exports. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnamese exporters shipped 180,000 tonnes (around 3 million bags) of coffee in January 2026, generating US$981 million in revenue. This represented a 25.5% year-on-year increase in volume and a 26.6% rise in value, supported by higher global prices. Average export prices climbed a further 0.9% to US$5,450 per tonne, while domestic raw bean prices held firm at US$3.85–3.89/kg, indicating continued farmer selling discipline. Robusta remained dominant, accounting for 73.8% of export revenue, while Arabica and processed coffee exports recorded strong growth, highlighting Vietnam’s ongoing shift toward higher value-added products.

Vietnam – Monthly Coffee Data (CMC)

In contrast, Colombia reported a significant production setback. According to the National Federation of Coffee Growers and reported by Reuters, Colombia’s coffee output in January fell 34% year-on-year to 893,000 60-kg bags, down from 1.35 million bags in January 2025. The federation cited adverse climate conditions, exchange-rate volatility, and international price swings as key contributing factors. Production over the last 12 months declined to 13.2 million bags, compared with 14.4 million bags a year earlier, while exports for the same period dropped to 12.9 million bags. The sharp January contraction reinforces concerns over washed Arabica availability, particularly given Colombia’s role as the world’s leading supplier of high-quality mild coffees.

Colombia – Monthly Coffee Production

Colombia – Monthly Coffee Exports

Futures Performance

Coffee C (Arabica – KC)

Robusta Coffee (RC)

The upside move on 09-Feb-2026 represented a technical rebound, not a full reversal of the losses incurred on 06-Feb-2026. In Arabica (KC), the 09-Feb gains of roughly +5 to +6 cents across the last five active contracts recovered only part of the prior session’s decline, which ranged from −6 to nearly −12 cents, leaving prices still below pre-selloff levels and beneath near-term resistance. Robusta (RC) showed a sharper nominal rebound, but this similarly failed to fully offset the deeper losses from 06-Feb, particularly in the front months where selling pressure had been most intense. Importantly, despite this incomplete retracement, both markets retained backwardation, indicating that the sell-off did not alleviate near-term supply tightness and that physical demand remains firm. Structurally, the coffee complex remains bullish, but from a price-action standpoint, 09-Feb should be classified as stabilization and partial recovery, not confirmation of renewed upside momentum; further higher closes are required to validate a continuation of the primary uptrend.

Contango / Backwardation

On 09-Feb-2026, both coffee markets were in clear backwardation, across the actively traded parts of the curve. In Arabica (KC), the front month Mar-26 closed at 299.20, with successive declines through May-26 (293.10), Jul-26 (287.45), Sep-26 (283.15) and Dec-26 (278.80), producing a smooth and persistent downward slope. This structure signals tight nearby availability, strong prompt demand, and a market willing to pay a premium for immediate supply rather than deferred delivery. Robusta (RC) displayed an even more pronounced backwardation, with Mar-26 at 3,843 sliding steadily to May-26 3,778, Jul-26 3,684, Sep-26 3,604, and Nov-26 3,520, underscoring acute near-term physical tightness and supply stress. The absence of contango in either market indicates that storage economics are unfavorable, inventories are not comfortable, and the dominant market signal remains bullish and supply-driven, with strength concentrated in the front of the curve rather than deferred speculative positioning.

Arabica/Robusta spread

Arabica $6,596 1MT
Robusta $3,843 1MT

Spread 41.8%

Volume & Open Interest

Coffee C (KC – Arabica)

Robusta Coffee (RC – London)

In Arabica (KC), volume expanded sharply into Feb 4 and Feb 6, coinciding with the sell-off and subsequent stabilization, while open interest remained broadly flat, indicating position rotation rather than liquidation. This confirms that the 06-Feb decline was driven by active two-way trade, not capitulation. The still-elevated volume on 09-Feb, despite missing OI data, supports the view that the rebound occurred with continued participation, not thin recovery trade.

In Robusta (RC), volumes peaked earlier on Feb 3 and then tapered, while open interest held within a tight 79k–80k band, signalling a more controlled, less speculative market. The absence of meaningful OI contraction across both markets reinforces the conclusion that recent price weakness represented temporary pressure within an intact structural uptrend, rather than the start of a deleveraging phase.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Arabica (ICE – Coffee C)

Robusta (ICE – London)

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.