Arabica Breaks Below 290 as Record Brazilian Exports and Better Flowering Weather Shift the Market (10 September 2026)
Arabica coffee futures extended their decline on Thursday, with the December ICE New York contract falling back below the 290-cent level as the market continued to adjust to improving Brazilian supply availability, record export flows and a more favourable weather outlook. December settled 390 points lower at 288.15 cents per pound after trading between 282.10 and 291.95 cents, while March lost 420 points to finish at 279.45 cents. The move pushed the most active contract to its weakest level in roughly ten weeks and reinforced the increasingly bearish technical structure that has developed since prices failed to maintain the break above 300 cents.
The pressure in New York contrasted with a firmer session in London, where November Robusta gained $82 to $3,554 per tonne and January rose $48 to $3,510. That divergence is important because it suggests that the current sell-off is not simply a broad rejection of coffee prices. Instead, a large part of the pressure is being generated by developments in Brazil, particularly the transition from a harvest-delay story into an availability story.
Brazil shifts from harvest delays to physical availability
Earlier in the season, rainfall slowed harvesting, drying and logistics, allowing the market to maintain a premium despite expectations for a large Brazilian crop. That constraint is now fading as the harvest moves toward completion and physical coffee begins to reach commercial channels more aggressively.
Cooxupé reported that harvesting across its operating regions had reached 95.4% by 4 September, with São Paulo at 97.1%, Southern Minas Gerais at 95.9%, Cerrado Mineiro at 95.4% and Matas de Minas at 85%. The significance of these figures lies not only in the progress of the harvest itself, but in what follows. A crop that previously existed largely in production estimates is now becoming available to exporters, warehouses and end users, reducing one of the key arguments that had supported the market during the earlier phase of the season.
Record August exports confirm the supply is moving
That shift is clearly visible in Brazil's August export data. According to Cecafé, Brazil shipped 4.155 million 60-kg bags of coffee of all forms during the month, the highest August volume on record and 31% above the same month last year. Export revenue reached $1.331 billion, also a record for August and up 19.8% year on year. Green coffee exports accounted for approximately 3.82 million bags, while Arabica shipments rose 25.7% to 2.866 million bags and Conilon and Robusta exports surged 53.6% to 953,592 bags. Soluble coffee shipments also increased sharply.
These figures are particularly important because they confirm that Brazil's larger crop is no longer simply a theoretical bearish factor. The supply is physically moving. For several months, the market could argue that a strong production outlook did not necessarily mean immediate availability because harvesting and logistical delays were slowing the movement of coffee through the supply chain. August suggests that this bottleneck is now easing rapidly. Record exports therefore provide more convincing evidence of loosening supply conditions than production forecasts alone and help explain why rallies are increasingly attracting selling rather than fresh buying.
Global exports improve, but the recovery is heavily Robusta-driven
The global picture remains more nuanced than the headline export numbers suggest. International Coffee Organization data showed that global green coffee exports increased 6.3% year on year in July to 10.76 million bags, but the growth was heavily concentrated in Robusta. Robusta shipments increased 32% to 4.98 million bags, driven largely by Vietnam and stronger Brazilian shipments, while Arabica exports fell 8.9% to 5.78 million bags.
This distinction is critical because it shows that the world is receiving more coffee, but not necessarily more of every type of coffee. The supply recovery is uneven. Robusta availability has improved substantially, while the Arabica market remains structurally tighter. For the first ten months of the 2025/26 coffee year, global green-bean exports were still slightly below the previous season, and Arabica's share of those shipments continued to weaken.
The current bearish narrative should therefore not be simplified into a broad global oversupply story. The more accurate interpretation is that supply pressure is building because Brazil is moving coffee more efficiently and Robusta exports are expanding rapidly, while the Arabica segment still retains some of the tightness that supported prices during the earlier stages of the bull market.
The global balance is moving back toward surplus
Even so, the broader balance is becoming less supportive. The ICO now expects global coffee production in 2025/26 to reach approximately 183.6 million bags, up 4.4% from the previous season, while consumption is projected to decline modestly. The combination would produce a global surplus of around 3 million bags after four consecutive seasons of deficit.
That would represent an important change in the underlying market regime. The previous price structure was supported by repeated deficits, declining inventories and persistent concern that supply would struggle to rebuild. A return to surplus gradually shifts the burden of proof toward the bulls, because the market increasingly needs a weather problem, production disappointment or renewed demand strength to prevent stocks from recovering.
Certified Arabica stocks remain the major contradiction
The complication is that exchange-certified Arabica inventories remain extremely low. ICE-monitored stocks have fallen to around 218,000 bags, keeping the pool of immediately deliverable coffee close to multi-decade lows. This creates a notable contradiction within the current market. Brazilian supply is improving, exports are accelerating and the global balance is becoming more comfortable, but certified Arabica stocks have not yet reflected that improvement.
Physical coffee does not automatically become ICE-certified coffee, and differences in quality, location and delivery economics mean that commercial availability can improve without immediately rebuilding exchange inventories. This is one reason why the current decline should not yet be interpreted as a straightforward transition into abundant Arabica supply.
The medium-term structure has clearly become more bearish, but the nearby physical cushion remains thin. If certified stocks continue to fall or if demand for deliverable coffee strengthens, the market could still experience sharp short-covering rallies despite the improving production outlook. In other words, the structural picture is loosening faster than the visible exchange inventory picture.
Brazilian rainfall is now bearish rather than bullish
Weather is adding another layer to the market. The recent return of rainfall across Brazilian producing areas has been interpreted as bearish because the crop cycle has moved beyond the main harvest phase and into the flowering period for the next production cycle. This is an important distinction. The coffee currently being harvested belongs to the 2026/27 cycle, while flowers opening now will largely determine production that will be harvested in 2027.
Rainfall that would have been disruptive several months ago is now constructive because it improves soil moisture, supports flowering and encourages early fruit development. Cepea has already reported improved flowering conditions in several producing regions, particularly in Conilon areas, while Arabica regions are expected to respond as soil moisture improves. In Conilon, the rainfall is also helping the setting and development of fruit from earlier flowering events.
For the market, this means the weather narrative has effectively reversed. Earlier in the season, rain was supportive because it delayed harvest and restricted nearby availability. At this stage of the cycle, the same rainfall is bearish because it improves the prospects for the next crop.
El Niño remains the key weather risk
The developing El Niño remains the most important weather risk that could challenge this increasingly bearish outlook. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center maintained an El Niño Advisory on 10 September and indicated that the event had strengthened further, with a greater than 90% probability of reaching very strong intensity during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.
This does not mean that crop damage in Brazil is inevitable, but it does introduce uncertainty over rainfall distribution and temperatures during an important stage of crop development. That risk should therefore be viewed as a potential future counterweight rather than an immediate bullish catalyst.
For now, the market is trading the weather that is actually occurring rather than the weather that could develop several months from now. Current rainfall is improving flowering conditions, and that is more tangible than the possibility of later El Niño-related stress. The risk becomes more important if rainfall turns irregular after flowering, if temperatures rise sharply during fruit setting or if moisture deficits develop during the early stages of cherry formation.
Why Arabica can fall despite extremely low stocks
The market is increasingly focused on future availability rather than current scarcity. Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, exports are accelerating, weather conditions are improving and the ICO expects the global balance to move back into surplus.
Against that, the bullish side can still point to depleted certified stocks, weaker global Arabica exports and the possibility that a strong El Niño could disrupt the 2027 crop cycle. The market is therefore caught between a nearby physical structure that remains tight and a forward-looking supply picture that is becoming progressively more comfortable.