Research Disclosures & Methodology

Last updated: 18 August 2026

About CocoaIntel

CocoaIntel is an independent cocoa market research publication operated by Georgi Uzunov, a private individual based in Bulgaria.

CocoaIntel publishes research, analysis and market intelligence concerning the global cocoa market, including physical cocoa fundamentals, supply and demand, trade flows, inventories, processing, weather, regulatory developments, futures markets, market structure and related factors.

CocoaIntel is currently an independent, non-commercial research publication. Access to the research is presently provided without charge.

Nature of the Research

CocoaIntel publications are prepared as general, non-personalized commodity market research and information.

The research is distributed on a standardized basis and is not prepared having regard to the investment objectives, financial circumstances, existing positions, risk tolerance, trading experience, margin availability or other individual circumstances of any particular reader.

CocoaIntel does not assess whether any transaction or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an individual reader.

CocoaIntel does not manage trading accounts, execute transactions on behalf of readers, exercise trading authority over reader assets or provide individually tailored trading instructions through its standard publications.

Nothing in a CocoaIntel publication should be interpreted as a guarantee that any particular transaction, strategy or market exposure is suitable for a specific person.

Where any statement contained in a CocoaIntel publication falls within an applicable legal definition of an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy, that statement should be read together with the disclosures contained in the relevant publication and on this page.

Research Scope

CocoaIntel research may consider, among other factors:

  • cocoa futures prices and price action;
  • futures curves and calendar spreads;
  • trading volume and open interest;
  • market positioning;
  • physical cocoa markets and differentials;
  • exchange-certified and monitored inventories;
  • stock coverage;
  • cocoa arrivals;
  • production;
  • global imports and exports;
  • trade flows;
  • cocoa grindings;
  • supply and demand balances;
  • weather and agronomic conditions;
  • crop development;
  • transportation and logistics;
  • currencies and macroeconomic variables;
  • regulatory and policy developments;
  • corporate and industry developments;
  • historical seasonality;
  • statistical and quantitative models;
  • proprietary analytical models; and
  • publicly available or licensed third-party information.

Not every factor is relevant to or used in every publication.

Facts, Estimates, Model Outputs and Opinions

CocoaIntel seeks to distinguish between different types of information used in its research.

Facts are information presented as observed, officially released or reported by an identified source.

Estimates are numerical or qualitative assessments made where complete confirmed information is not available.

Model outputs are results generated using statistical, quantitative, rule-based or other analytical methods.

Interpretations represent CocoaIntel's assessment of the implications of available information.

Opinions represent analytical judgments concerning current or prospective market conditions.

Scenarios represent conditional assessments of possible future market developments.

Forecasts, scenarios, probabilities, interpretations, estimates and opinions are not statements of fact and are inherently uncertain.

Data Sources and Reliability

CocoaIntel uses information from sources considered relevant and reasonably reliable. These may include exchanges, governmental authorities, statistical agencies, customs databases, industry organisations, companies, meteorological providers, market-data providers, news organisations and other public or licensed sources.

CocoaIntel cannot guarantee that third-party information is complete, accurate, current or free from error.

Information may subsequently be corrected, revised, delayed, reclassified, restated or withdrawn by its original source.

Where confirmed information is unavailable, CocoaIntel may use estimates, proxies or analytical assumptions. Material uncertainty will be identified where reasonably practicable.

Scenario Analysis

CocoaIntel may use scenario analysis to assess possible future market developments.

Reports may include a:

Base Case — the scenario currently considered most consistent with the available evidence.

Bull Case — a scenario involving stronger prices or a more constructive market structure relative to the Base Case.

Bear Case — a scenario involving weaker prices or a more defensive market structure relative to the Base Case.

Additional scenarios may be used where relevant.

Scenario descriptions are analytical frameworks. They are not personalized instructions to enter or exit a transaction.

Scenario Probabilities

CocoaIntel may assign probabilities to individual scenarios.

Unless explicitly stated otherwise, these probabilities represent analytical estimates of relative likelihood at the stated publication time. They may combine quantitative information, historical relationships, model outputs, current market conditions and analyst judgment.

They should not be interpreted as statistically certain probabilities or guarantees.

Scenario probabilities may change materially when new information becomes available.

Price Levels and Market References

CocoaIntel publications may identify support levels, resistance levels, breakout levels, invalidation levels, technical objectives, price ranges, valuation ranges, fair-value estimates, potential targets or other market reference levels.

These levels represent analytical assessments and should be considered together with the relevant assumptions, timeframe and identified risks.

They are not personalized orders or instructions to buy, sell, hold or size a position.

Market prices may move rapidly through an identified level, and execution at any particular price cannot be assumed.

Research Horizon

CocoaIntel may publish analysis over different time horizons, including:

  • the next trading session;
  • several trading sessions;
  • weekly developments;
  • medium-term market conditions;
  • crop-year developments; and
  • longer-term structural conditions.

The relevant horizon should be stated or reasonably identifiable from each publication.

A bullish assessment over one horizon may coexist with a bearish assessment over another horizon.

Updates and Changes in View

CocoaIntel research reflects the information and analytical judgment available at the stated publication date and time.

Views may change as new information becomes available.

CocoaIntel is not obliged to update every previously published report immediately following a change in market conditions.

Older publications should therefore be understood as historical research reflecting CocoaIntel's assessment at that time and should not automatically be interpreted as CocoaIntel's current view.

Where appropriate, CocoaIntel may identify material changes from a previously published scenario or assessment.

Corrections

CocoaIntel seeks to correct material errors after they are identified.

A material correction may be implemented by updating the original publication, adding a correction notice or publishing a subsequent research update.

Minor typographical, grammatical or formatting corrections that do not affect the substance of the research may be made without a separate correction notice.

Quantitative Models and Artificial Intelligence

CocoaIntel may use statistical models, quantitative methods, software tools, automated processing and artificial intelligence to assist with data processing, analysis, scenario construction, drafting and quality control.

Models necessarily simplify real-world relationships and may be affected by model specification risk, incomplete information, parameter uncertainty, data revisions, structural changes, regime changes and other limitations.

AI-assisted or automated outputs may contain errors.

Responsibility for the final published analysis remains with the identified author of the publication.

Conflicts of Interest

CocoaIntel seeks to identify interests or relationships that could reasonably be perceived as affecting the objectivity of its research.

Potential conflicts may include financial positions in instruments discussed in the research, physical cocoa exposure, employment relationships, consulting arrangements, commercial relationships, sponsorship, payments from market participants or other material economic interests relevant to the subject matter.

Where a relevant conflict exists in relation to a particular publication, CocoaIntel will seek to disclose that conflict within the publication itself.

A general disclosure on this page does not replace a report-specific disclosure where a material report-specific conflict exists.

Author Positions

The author of CocoaIntel research may or may not hold positions or economic exposure relating to markets discussed in a publication.

Where such an interest is considered relevant to the objectivity of a particular publication, it should be disclosed in that publication.

Readers should therefore refer to the Interests and Conflicts section of each report.

Employment and External Professional Activities

The author may have professional activities outside CocoaIntel.

Where an external employment, professional, consulting or commercial relationship is materially relevant to the subject matter of a particular CocoaIntel publication and could reasonably be perceived as affecting its objectivity, the relationship should be appropriately disclosed, subject to applicable confidentiality obligations.

CocoaIntel research does not disclose confidential or proprietary information belonging to an employer, client or other third party.

Trading and Unpublished Research

The author should not use knowledge of material unpublished CocoaIntel research for the purpose of obtaining an improper trading advantage.

Material unpublished research should not be selectively provided to another person for such a purpose.

CocoaIntel currently does not publish research in exchange for payment from an issuer, exchange, broker or market participant for the purpose of producing a predetermined market conclusion.

If CocoaIntel introduces sponsored, commissioned or paid research in the future, any material relationship capable of affecting the perceived objectivity of the research will be disclosed.

Futures and Derivatives Risk

Commodity futures, options and other derivatives involve substantial risk.

They may involve leverage, margin requirements and rapid price movements. Relatively small movements in the underlying market can therefore result in substantial gains or losses relative to the amount initially committed.

Depending on the instrument, account structure and market conditions, losses may exceed the amount initially committed.

Liquidity may deteriorate rapidly, prices may gap, margin requirements may change and an order may not be executed at the expected price.

Stop-loss and other conditional orders do not guarantee execution at the specified level.

Readers should independently determine whether involvement in futures or derivatives is appropriate for their circumstances.

No Guarantee of Forecasts

No scenario, probability, model output, target, forecast or analytical conclusion published by CocoaIntel is guaranteed.

Actual market developments may differ materially from expectations because of unexpected information, changes in market structure, political or regulatory events, weather, liquidity conditions or other factors.

Past Performance

Past market performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The historical accuracy or inaccuracy of a CocoaIntel scenario does not guarantee the outcome of subsequent forecasts.

Backtests and Hypothetical Results

Where CocoaIntel publishes backtested, simulated, reconstructed or hypothetical results, they will be identified as such.

Such results do not represent actual trading unless expressly stated otherwise.

Backtests may be affected by hindsight, assumptions, model selection, data availability, transaction-cost assumptions, liquidity assumptions and other limitations.

Actual results may differ materially.

CocoaIntel does not provide individualized legal, tax or accounting advice.

Readers should obtain appropriate professional advice regarding their own circumstances where required.

Contact

CocoaIntel is currently operated by:

Georgi Uzunov
Bulgaria
Email: [email protected]

Questions concerning CocoaIntel research methodology, corrections or potential conflicts of interest may be submitted using the contact details above.