Arabica Corrects After Rally While Robusta Extends Gains (25 June 2026)
Coffee futures finished Thursday's session with mixed performance across the major exchanges, as arabica prices on ICE Futures US retreated after failing to sustain gains above the key 280 cents/lb level, while robusta futures in London continued to strengthen. The session was largely characterized by technical adjustments following several days of advances, although traders remained focused on Brazilian harvest progress, producer selling activity, weather developments and the still-tight global supply situation.
The September 2026 arabica contract settled at 276.40 cents/lb, down 80 points after trading between 270.35 and 282.95 cents/lb during a volatile session. December futures finished 45 points lower at 263.40 cents/lb. In London, robusta continued to outperform, with the September contract rising US$57 to US$3,662 per metric ton, while November gained US$39 to close at US$3,593 per ton. Market participants largely viewed the weakness in arabica as profit-taking rather than a change in the underlying fundamentals that have supported prices over recent weeks.
Attention remains firmly on Brazil, where harvesting continues to increase the availability of new crop supplies. However, producer selling remains measured, with many growers showing little urgency to market additional volumes while monitoring price developments. This restrained commercial activity has helped prevent a faster increase in export availability despite the advancing harvest. According to Cecafé, Brazilian coffee exports through June 23 reached 1.79 million bags, representing a 10.1% decline in the daily average compared with the same period last year, while physical prices for quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais remained close to R$1,690 per bag.
Weather continues to be another important source of market attention. Forecasts suggest rainfall should become more frequent during July, particularly across southern Brazil, although traders continue to assess the potential impact on harvesting operations and logistics. Agronomists are also monitoring reports of premature flowering in parts of São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais, where off-season rainfall could disrupt the normal dormancy period of flower buds. If additional rainfall encourages further flowering, next season's crop could experience uneven fruit development, irregular ripening and a larger proportion of immature beans. Cold conditions across southern and southeastern Brazil also remain under close observation.
The broader supply picture continues to offer support to prices. ICE certified arabica stocks declined by 3,671 bags during the session to 385,191 bags, reinforcing the view that exchange inventories remain historically limited even as Brazilian supplies gradually increase. At the same time, demand for premium and specialty coffees continues to strengthen. Research released by Cooxupé indicates that higher-quality coffees are gaining market share among Brazilian consumers, supporting demand for value-added products despite elevated prices.
Elsewhere, Bolivia reported a record year for coffee exports in terms of value during 2025. Export revenues exceeded US$17.1 million, an increase of 13% from the previous year, despite export volumes falling 12% to 2,169 metric tons. The figures highlight the country's successful strategy of focusing on premium specialty coffees, with the United States, Belgium and France remaining its largest export destinations. The higher revenues reflect strong international demand for Bolivian specialty coffees as well as the elevated global coffee price environment.
Other developments received comparatively limited market attention. A strong earthquake affecting parts of Venezuela and neighboring Colombia generated little reaction in futures markets, while the Colombian government announced a five-month extension of the National Coffee Fund management agreement as discussions continue over the sector's future governance. Currency movements also remained secondary, with the weaker U.S. dollar having only a limited influence on coffee prices.
