Cocoa Extends Recovery as Ivory Coast Pauses Forward Sales Amid El Niño Concerns (23 June 2026)

• September New York cocoa rose 1.59% to 4,661 USD/ton, London cocoa gained 1.04% to 3,502 GBP/ton.
• Ivory Coast temporarily suspended additional 2026/27 forward cocoa sales pending updated crop assessments.
• El Niño conditions remain weak, but forecasts suggest further strengthening during the second half of 2026.

Cocoa futures moved higher on Tuesday, led by gains in the September contracts. September New York cocoa closed at 4,661 USD/ton, up 73 points (+1.59%) from Monday's close, while September London cocoa rose 36 pounds (+1.04%) to 3,502 GBP/ton. The advance in both benchmark contracts points to improving short-term sentiment across the cocoa market. Despite lower trading volume in New York, prices remained firm throughout the session, while London volume increased, providing stronger confirmation of buying interest in the European market. Certified cocoa stocks also rose modestly, with US inventories increasing by 6,236 bags (+0.21%), while UK stocks remained unchanged.

Market Developments

One of the most important developments for the cocoa market on Tuesday came from Ivory Coast, where the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) temporarily suspended additional sales of cocoa export contracts for the upcoming 2026/27 season. According to Reuters, the regulator has already forward sold approximately 1.15 million metric tons of cocoa for delivery beginning in September 2026 but has paused further sales while reassessing production prospects for the next main crop.

The decision comes during a critical stage of crop development, with June and July weather conditions playing a major role in determining the size and quality of the upcoming harvest. Updated crop assessments from field teams are expected in early July, after which forward sales are likely to resume.

The move is significant because Ivory Coast typically sells a large portion of its crop in advance, allowing exporters and chocolate manufacturers to secure supplies well before harvest. By temporarily halting additional sales, the world's largest cocoa producer is signaling increased caution regarding next season's production outlook. The announcement introduces additional uncertainty into future supply expectations and was viewed by many market participants as a supportive factor for cocoa prices.

Weather

Weather remains a key focus for cocoa traders as El Niño conditions continue to develop in the Pacific Ocean. While the event is currently classified as weak, with the Niño 3.4 index estimated at approximately +0.7°C to +0.9°C, forecasts indicate a high probability that El Niño will strengthen during the second half of 2026. Several climate models project a meaningful risk that the event could evolve into a moderate or strong El Niño by late 2026.

For West Africa, stronger El Niño conditions have historically been associated with an increased risk of weather disruptions, including periods of excessive rainfall, disease pressure, heat stress, and localized dryness during key crop development stages. Although the relationship is not always consistent, the possibility of a stronger El Niño later this year introduces additional uncertainty into 2026/27 cocoa production forecasts.

As a result, weather developments are likely to remain a major focus for the market in the coming months. With crop prospects still being evaluated and El Niño expected to strengthen, traders will closely monitor rainfall patterns, temperatures, and field reports from Ivory Coast and Ghana for signs of potential production risks.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa futures staged a broad-based recovery on Tuesday, with the first five contracts advancing between 1.48% and 1.82%. The strongest gains were recorded in the nearby July contract, while deferred contracts also moved higher, confirming that buying interest was spread across the curve rather than concentrated in a single delivery month. The relatively narrow range of gains across all maturities points to a market-wide repricing rather than contract-specific positioning.

From a curve perspective, nearby contracts marginally outperformed deferred months, indicating that traders remain more concerned about near-term supply conditions than about the longer-term outlook. However, the performance gap between nearby and deferred contracts was relatively modest, suggesting that the session was characterized by general bullish sentiment rather than a meaningful shift in supply expectations.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa also finished higher across all major contracts, although the gains were slightly smaller than those recorded in New York. The strongest performance was seen in the December 2026 contract, which rose 1.22%, while the nearby July contract gained 1.10%. Unlike New York, where nearby contracts clearly outperformed, London displayed a more balanced rally across the curve.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

New York Cocoa (CC)

More than half of all New York cocoa trading volume was concentrated in calendar spreads, highlighting the continued importance of curve positioning among commercial and institutional participants. While outright futures prices rallied strongly, the high proportion of spread activity suggests that traders remained focused on relative value opportunities between delivery months and evolving supply expectations rather than aggressively increasing outright directional exposure.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa recorded exceptionally high spread participation, with nearly two-thirds of all trading volume occurring in calendar spreads. This indicates substantial repositioning across the forward curve and reflects active management of crop-year exposure. The dominance of spread trading suggests that market participants remain focused on future supply availability, inventory trends, and the timing of a potential recovery in global cocoa production.

US–UK July Spread

(Sep Contract)

$4,661 − (£3,502 x 1.320$/£) =$38ton

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa trading activity remained volatile over the past week, with volumes fluctuating between approximately 43,000 and 62,000 contracts. Open interest has trended lower throughout the period, falling from 193,018 contracts on 16 June to 184,799 contracts on 22 June. The persistent decline in open interest suggests that positions have been leaving the market, consistent with liquidation and short-covering activity rather than aggressive new position building. Tuesday's rally therefore occurred against a backdrop of declining market participation, making the upcoming open interest figure particularly important for assessing the strength of the move.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa volume has strengthened noticeably during the last two trading sessions, reaching 44,591 contracts on 23 June, the highest level of the observed period. Open interest has also been steadily increasing, rising from 233,793 contracts on 16 June to 238,002 contracts on 22 June. Unlike New York, where open interest has been declining, London's rising participation suggests that new positions have been entering the market. This provides a more constructive underlying signal and indicates that institutional participants remain actively engaged in the London cocoa market.

Exchange Trading Volume

Certified Cocoa Stocks

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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Cocoa Market Outlook for Wednesday (Sep Contract)

The technical picture heading into Wednesday remains moderately bullish. Tuesday's rally was not followed by aggressive profit-taking, with prices spending much of the session consolidating near the highs around 4,640-4,670. This behavior is generally constructive, as strong markets tend to hold gains rather than immediately surrender them. Across the daily, hourly, and intraday timeframes, cocoa continues to trade above its key short-term moving averages, while momentum indicators remain supportive.

On the daily chart, the market has successfully reclaimed the 21-day moving average and continues to build momentum after recovering from the June lows. RSI has strengthened into bullish territory without reaching overbought levels, MACD remains in positive territory, and On-Balance Volume continues to trend higher, indicating that buying activity has improved during the recent advance. Together, these indicators suggest that underlying momentum remains supportive of further upside.

The most likely scenario for Wednesday is a period of consolidation or a modest extension of Tuesday's gains. Initial support is located near 4,620, followed by stronger support around 4,580. As long as prices remain above these levels, the short-term trend remains constructive. On the upside, the market is likely to test resistance near 4,700, with a move toward 4,750 possible if buying interest strengthens during the session. Beyond that, the 4,800 area represents a major technical objective and an important resistance zone due to the presence of the longer-term 150-day moving average.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.