Cocoa Futures Rebound Sharply as Short-Covering Accelerates, Ivory Coast Arrivals Improve (26 May 2026)

• Cocoa futures rebounded sharply Tuesday
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.637 million tons as of May 24, up 2.2% year-on-year.
• Weather conditions across Ivory Coast improved slightly, though rainfall remained below average in several producing regions.

Cocoa futures staged a strong recovery on Tuesday, with both New York and London markets rebounding sharply after last week’s heavy liquidation pressure. ICE US Jul-26 cocoa settled at 4,169, up 373 points or 9.83% on the day, while London Jul-26 cocoa surged 295 points, or 10.27%, as buying returned aggressively across the forward curve. The recovery was supported by renewed short-covering, firm commercial activity, and improving sentiment following the recent selloff.

Traders noted that much of Tuesday’s rally was driven by short-covering and profit-taking from speculative participants who had built significant bearish exposure during the previous week’s selloff.

Despite the sharp rebound, attention remained focused on supply developments in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer. Reuters reported that cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 1.637 million metric tons as of May 24 since the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1, representing a 2.2% increase versus the same period last year. Exporters estimated that around 34,000 tons arrived at Abidjan and San Pedro ports during the week ending May 24, compared with only 20,000 tons during the same week a year earlier.

The stronger arrivals data reinforced expectations for improved mid-crop availability in the near term and acted as a moderating bearish factor underneath the broader rally. Market participants continue to monitor whether the recent increase in arrivals can be sustained through the remainder of the mid-crop cycle, particularly as weather conditions across West Africa remain mixed and farmer investment levels continue to lag following the extreme volatility seen over the past year.

Weather conditions in Ivory Coast also remained under close observation. Farmers reported that rains across most cocoa-growing regions remained below average last week, although rainfall intensity improved compared with previous weeks. The improved moisture profile was viewed as supportive for the ongoing March-to-August mid-crop development, helping alleviate some immediate concerns around pod stress and soil moisture deficits. However, traders remain cautious regarding the longer-term production outlook, as structural supply concerns and uncertainty surrounding the 2026/27 crop continue to support elevated forward cocoa prices.

Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa futures staged an aggressive rebound into 26-May, with the nearby Jul-26 contract rallying from 3,818 to 4,152, a gain of 334 points or 8.75%. Strength was broad-based across the entire forward curve, with deferred contracts also posting gains above 8%.

The recovery was particularly notable given the heavy liquidation pressure seen previously. Rather than flattening, the curve maintained a firm structure, indicating that participants continue to assign elevated supply risk into the 2026/27 season. Nearby contracts slightly outperformed deferred positions, suggesting renewed short-covering and stronger demand for prompt coverage.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures also rebounded sharply by 26-May, outperforming the New York market in percentage terms. The nearby Jul-26 contract advanced 311 points, or 10.88%, while Sep-26 gained 10.90%.

The stronger percentage recovery in London suggests renewed buying interest after the prior selloff and reflects continued tightness in the European cocoa market structure. Gains remained consistently strong across deferred maturities, although the front end of the curve continued to lead the move higher.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Exchange-for-Physical (EFP) and Exchange-for-Swap (EFS) activity remained relatively concentrated in nearby contracts on both ICE US and ICE Europe cocoa markets, while spread trading stayed exceptionally active across the curve.

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York cocoa, Jul-26 recorded 415 EFPs and 312 EFS contracts, while Sep-26 showed limited EFP activity at just 1 lot but a notable 1,500 EFS transactions. Deferred contracts beyond Dec-26 saw virtually no EFP or EFS flow. This concentration in the front of the curve suggests that commercial hedging and OTC risk transfers remained focused on nearby exposure and prompt physical market positioning.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa displayed a similar pattern. Jul-26 registered 52 EFPs, Sep-26 increased sharply to 377 EFPs, while Mar-27 recorded a substantial 1,500 EFS contracts. The elevated EFS activity in deferred London contracts may indicate increased swap-related positioning tied to longer-dated commercial exposure or structured hedging activity.

US–UK July Spread

$4,152 − (£3,169 x 1.343$/£) =$-110ton (down from $-20ton)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York cocoa trading activity increased sharply into 26-May, with total volume rising to 49,072 lots versus 44,771 lots on 22-May. The rise in activity accompanied the strong price recovery across the curve, indicating renewed participation following the previous liquidation phase.

Open interest had been steadily building into the rally, rising from 193,578 lots on 19-May to 199,981 lots by 22-May, suggesting fresh positioning and increased market participation rather than purely short-covering.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa volumes also remained elevated into 26-May, with 27,604 lots traded following 29,084 lots on 22-May. Despite slightly lower turnover versus the prior session, activity remained historically firm relative to recent weeks.

Open interest continued to trend higher into the recovery phase, increasing from 212,299 lots on 19-May to 214,346 lots on 22-May. The gradual increase in open interest alongside the rebound in prices suggests the market continued attracting new exposure rather than simply reducing existing bearish positions.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Cocoa Market Outlook for Wednesday

Wednesday’s session is likely to remain biased to the upside following Tuesday’s strong recovery, with Jul-26 NY cocoa expected to test the 4,200–4,250 resistance zone if prices continue holding above the 4,080–4,100 support area. Short-term momentum indicators remain constructive after the sharp rebound from last week’s lows, although intraday momentum slowed into the close, suggesting the market may initially consolidate before attempting another upward move. A sustained break above 4,220 could trigger additional short-covering, while failure to hold above 4,100 may lead to profit-taking back toward the 4,000 area.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.