New York Cocoa Consolidates While Defending the $5,400 Support Level (21 July 2027)
Cocoa futures advanced across both markets on Tuesday, 21 July, reversing the previous session’s weakness. New York recorded the stronger performance, with the monitored contracts rising by 1.66%–1.90% as gains strengthened toward the deferred May 2027 position. London cocoa also moved uniformly higher, although advances were more moderate at approximately 1.44%–1.49%. The broad-based recovery was accompanied by increased trading volume in both markets, with New York showing the more pronounced expansion in activity.
Market sentiment was shaped by Citi’s decision to adopt a neutral stance on cocoa futures. The bank maintained its three-month price target at $5,000 per tonne and its 12-month target at $6,000 per tonne, indicating that clearer evidence of El Niño-related crop damage and stronger cocoa demand would be required before it revised its outlook.
At the same time, prices drew support from expectations that the global cocoa market could move closer to balance in 2026/27 following the substantial surplus anticipated for the current season. Lindt & Sprüngli CFO Martin Hug said that, even without an El Niño event, the next cocoa crop was unlikely to match the strength of the current harvest. Weather risks remained in focus after the United Nations’ weather agency raised its forecast in early July for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño, a development considered particularly relevant for cocoa-producing regions. Hug also suggested that chocolate demand could recover in volume terms, reducing the likelihood of another similarly large surplus over the next several crops.
Futures Performance
New York Cocoa
| CONTRACT | 20 JUL | 21 JUL | CHANGE | CHANGE % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | 5,507 | 5,606 | +99 | +1.80% |
| Dec-26 | 5,664 | 5,758 | +94 | +1.66% |
| Mar-27 | 5,752 | 5,853 | +101 | +1.76% |
| May-27 | 5,736 | 5,845 | +109 | +1.90% |
London Cocoa
| CONTRACT | 20 JUL | 21 JUL | CHANGE | CHANGE % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-26 | 4,093 | 4,152 | +59 | +1.44% |
| Dec-26 | 4,155 | 4,215 | +60 | +1.44% |
| Mar-27 | 4,231 | 4,294 | +63 | +1.49% |
| May-27 | 4,230 | 4,293 | +63 | +1.49% |
Cocoa futures advanced across both markets on Tuesday, 21 July, reversing the declines recorded in the previous session. New York cocoa posted the stronger gains, with the four monitored contracts rising by between 1.66% and 1.90%. The May 2027 contract led the advance, gaining 109 points to close at 5,845, while September increased by 99 points to 5,606.
London cocoa also moved uniformly higher, although its gains were more moderate. September and December rose by approximately 1.44%, while March and May each advanced by around 1.49%. The futures curves in both markets remained upward sloping from September through March, indicating premiums for deferred delivery. However, both curves showed a marginal inversion between March and May, amounting to eight points in New York and one point in London.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
New York Cocoa
New York cocoa recorded substantial off-screen and inter-month activity on 21 July. Spread volume totalled 22,958 lots, equivalent to almost half of total futures volume. Activity was concentrated in December 2026, with 8,974 lots, followed by September 2026 at 6,504 lots and March 2027 at 4,381 lots. EFS activity reached 17,500 lots, driven by 6,500 lots in September 2026, 5,000 lots in July 2027 and 6,000 lots in September 2027. EFP activity was comparatively limited, with 343 lots recorded entirely in the September 2026 contract.
London Cocoa
London cocoa also registered strong spread activity, totalling 16,536 lots. December 2026 was the most actively traded spread maturity with 6,399 lots, followed by September 2026 at 4,598 lots and March 2027 at 3,286 lots. EFP volume amounted to 229 lots, distributed across September 2026, December 2026 and March 2027. EFS activity was modest at 560 lots, comprising 60 lots in September 2026 and 250 lots each in December 2027 and March 2028.
US–UK Spread
(Sep Contract)
$5,606 − (£4,152 x 1.337$/£) =$54ton (up from $10ton)
Volume and Open Interest
Trading activity increased in both cocoa futures markets on 21 July.
New York Cocoa
| REPORT DATE | TOTAL VOLUME | TOTAL OPEN INTEREST |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 45,074 | 206,151 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 44,399 | 207,172 |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 34,667 | 208,055 |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 37,091 | 204,934 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | 49,400 | Not available |
New York cocoa volume rose to 49,400 lots from 37,091 lots on 20 July, an increase of 12,309 lots, or 33.2%. This was the highest daily volume since 10 July and marked a clear recovery from the relatively subdued turnover recorded during the preceding sessions.
New York open interest stood at 204,934 lots on 20 July, down 3,121 lots, or 1.5%, from 17 July. Over the same period, the monitored New York contracts declined by approximately 1.6%–1.8%. The combination of falling prices and lower open interest points primarily to long liquidation, as existing bullish positions were closed rather than substantial new short positions being established. This suggests that the decline was driven more by position reduction than by an expansion of bearish exposure.
London Cocoa
| TRADE DATE | TOTAL VOLUME | TOTAL OPEN INTEREST |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 27,504 | 231,099 |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 33,311 | 229,851 |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 30,637 | 226,775 |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 21,296 | 227,840 |
| 21 Jul 2026 | 23,313 | Not available |
London cocoa volume increased more moderately to 23,313 lots from 21,296 lots, representing a gain of 2,017 lots, or 9.5%. Despite the improvement, trading activity remained below the stronger volumes recorded earlier in the month.
London open interest increased to 227,840 lots on 20 July, up 1,065 lots, or 0.5%, from 17 July. Price performance was mixed: September and December declined by 0.22% and 0.19%, respectively, while March and May increased by 0.07% and 0.52%. The increase in aggregate open interest indicates that new positions were added, but the mixed price movement suggests that this activity may have involved a combination of nearby short positioning, deferred buying and inter-month spread trading. Because open interest is reported for the market as a whole, the data do not identify precisely which maturities accounted for the increase.
Exchange Trading Volume
| EXCHANGE | 20 JUL 2026 | 21 JUL 2026 | CHANGE | % CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE U.S. Cocoa | 3,279,012 | 3,285,161 | +6,149 | +0.19% |
| ICE Europe Cocoa | 1,198,594 | 1,150,313 | −48,281 | −4.03% |
The measure is not a complete regional stock-to-grind ratio, as it includes only exchange-certified cocoa held at U.S. and EU delivery ports and excludes commercial inventories outside the ICE warehouse system. North America NCA grindings cover processors across North America, while ICE U.S. certified stocks are stored at U.S. delivery ports. ECA reports bean usage in European countries and London-certified cocoa is held in European and UK delivery locations.
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelTomorrow's Outlook
New York September cocoa enters the 22 July session with a cautiously constructive short-term bias after closing at 5,607. The five-minute chart shows that prices stabilised above the short-term moving averages late in the session, while RSI near 59 and a positive MACD reading indicate improving intraday momentum. However, the relatively subdued late-session volume suggests that the recovery has not yet developed into a decisive breakout.
The broader technical picture remains mixed. On the daily chart, the contract is holding above the rising 21-day moving average and well above the longer-term averages, preserving the underlying upward structure. Nevertheless, prices remain below the nine-day moving average, while the daily MACD histogram is negative, indicating that medium-term momentum has weakened following the retreat from the July highs.
Initial resistance is located around 5,800. A sustained move above that level would strengthen the recovery signal and could open the way for a retest of 5,700 and potentially 6,100. Immediate support the 21-day moving average around 5,450–5,480.
Overall, the market is likely to remain range-bound with a modest upward bias while prices hold above 5,550. A break below this level would weaken the short-term outlook and increase the risk of renewed selling toward 5,350, whereas a close above 5,650 would provide clearer confirmation that the rebound is extending.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
