New York Coffee Reverses Sharp Intraday Gains as Origin Selling Intensifies (21 July 2026)

Arabica coffee futures reversed substantial intraday gains on Tuesday as aggressive origin selling, particularly from Colombia, triggered profit-taking near important technical resistance levels. Market participants were also assessing the possibility of new US tariffs, Brazilian export activity and intense heat across parts of Vietnam’s coffee-producing regions.

Trading volume in New York reached 32,572 lots, up by 5,098 lots from Monday’s session. The September Arabica contract settled 2.45 cents, or 0.75%, lower at 322.10 cents per pound.

The contract traded across a wide 14.65-cent range, moving from a session low of 320.15 cents to a high of 335.40 cents. During the rally, prices broke through resistance at 329.27 cents and 333.98 cents before surrendering all their gains later in the session.

Arabica futures had gained as much as 11.95 cents intraday and fluctuated by 24.05 cents over the past three sessions. The recent price action initially appeared to confirm a technical transition into a higher trading channel after the market moved above 315.00, 320.00 and 325.00 cents.

During the first half of Tuesday’s session, September futures also surpassed 330.00 cents, reached an initial chart target near 333.60 cents and briefly broke above 335.00 cents.

However, buying momentum weakened above that level. Heavy selling from producing countries, led by Colombia, subsequently pushed prices lower and encouraged speculative profit-taking. Despite the reversal, the contract continued to find strong support above the psychologically important 320-cent level.

Colombian Selling Intensifies Amid US Tariff Uncertainty

Origin selling accelerated following reports that US officials had prepared several tariff options for President Donald Trump to consider before the existing 10% global tariff applied to various imports was due to expire at the end of the week.

The proposals raised concerns that Colombian coffee could become subject to higher US import duties.

According to the Financial Times, the Trump administration was preparing to announce a new round of tariffs affecting dozens of countries despite warnings from some advisers that a further escalation in trade tensions could damage the US economy ahead of the midterm elections.

The potential measures followed the announcement of a 50% tariff on Canadian products and an earlier 25% tariff on imports from Brazil, reinforcing the administration’s use of trade duties as an instrument of commercial and political pressure.

The current 10% tariff arrangement, including the rate applied to Colombian products, was scheduled to expire on Friday. The resulting uncertainty encouraged Colombian exporters to increase forward selling while New York prices remained near recent highs.

Arabica Spreads Narrow as September Roll Accelerates

Position rollovers from September into later contracts continued earlier than usual.

As of Monday, September Arabica open interest stood at 63,510 lots, compared with 56,107 lots in December, leaving a difference of only 7,403 lots. The accelerating rollover contributed to further narrowing across the nearby spreads.

The September–December spread declined to 14.20 cents from 15.10 cents in the previous session. The September–March spread fell to 20.60 cents from 21.80 cents, while the December–March spread eased to 6.40 cents from 6.75 cents.

Exchange-certified Arabica stocks decreased by another 1,111 bags to 328,756 bags. Stocks have now declined for 19 consecutive sessions and remain only 26,550 bags above their historical minimum.

No bags were awaiting certification for the ninth consecutive trading session.

London Robusta Also Closes Lower

Robusta futures in London followed New York lower despite increased trading activity.

Tuesday’s volume reached 17,821 lots, up by 9,105 lots from Monday. The September contract settled down $66 per tonne, or 1.70%, at $3,818 per tonne, equivalent to approximately 173.18 cents per pound.

September traded within a $106 range, from a low of $3,807 per tonne to a high of $3,913 per tonne.

Robusta spreads also narrowed significantly. The September–November spread fell to $19 per tonne from $33, while the September–January spread declined to $52 from $73. The November–January spread eased to $33 per tonne from $40.

Certified Robusta inventories, in contrast to declining Arabica stocks, rose to their highest level in four months.

The price premium of New York Arabica over London Robusta increased slightly to 148.92 cents per pound from 148.38 cents in the previous session.

Brazilian July Shipments Reach 1.56 Million Bags

Brazilian coffee shipments reached 1,557,198 bags between the beginning of July and July 21, according to preliminary data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, Cecafé.

The total represented a daily average of 74,151 bags, approximately 1% below the comparable pace. Shipments included:

• 970,628 bags of Arabica coffee;
• 402,001 bags of Robusta coffee; and
• 184,564 bags of soluble coffee.

Requests for certificates of origin totaled 1,987,457 bags, down approximately 0.3%.

Certificate requests comprised 1,204,070 bags of Arabica, 531,957 bags of Robusta and 269,564 bags of soluble coffee.

The difference between certificates requested and shipments completed suggests that additional volumes were being prepared for export during the remaining days of the month.

Intense Heat Affects Central Vietnam

Weather risks also remained in focus as an intense heat wave affected central Vietnam and parts of the country’s Central Highlands.

According to Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, temperatures across areas extending from southern Nghe An to Quang Tri, as well as from Hue and Da Nang into eastern Quang Ngai, Gia Lai and Dak Lak, generally ranged from 35°C to 39°C.

Some locations recorded temperatures close to or above 39°C. Tam Ky station in Da Nang reached 39°C, while readings of 38.8°C to 38.9°C were reported in Ba To, Hoai Nhon and Tuy Hoa.

Relative humidity in the affected areas fell to between 45% and 55%, with the most intense heat occurring between 11:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.

The forecast indicated that exceptionally hot conditions could continue during the following 24 to 48 hours, with maximum temperatures potentially exceeding 39°C in isolated locations. From July 23 onward, however, the heat wave was expected to become more localized across central Vietnam.

The authorities classified the natural-disaster risk at Level 1 and warned that the combination of high temperatures, low humidity and elevated electricity demand would increase the risk of fires and explosions in residential areas.