Cocoa Futures Surge as Weather Concerns and Tight Supply Expectations Fuel Broad-Based Rally (24 June 2026)
Cocoa futures extended their two-week rally on Wednesday, 24 June, with both New York and London contracts climbing to fresh five-month highs. Growing concerns over the outlook for the 2026/27 West African crop continued to support prices after reports emerged that Ivory Coast has temporarily suspended forward export sales for the upcoming season while assessing production prospects. At the same time, persistent heavy rainfall across key producing regions has disrupted transportation and field access, while the recent confirmation of an emerging El Niño has increased concerns over weather conditions later in the crop cycle.
New York Cocoa (ICE US)
New York cocoa futures recorded another strong session, with all major contracts posting sizeable gains compared with Tuesday's settlement. While the nearby July contract advanced 197 points, deferred contracts outperformed, rising by more than 6% across the curve.
| Contract | 23-Jun | 24-Jun | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 4,580 | 4,777 | +197 | +4.30% |
| Sep-26 | 4,661 | 4,982 | +321 | +6.89% |
| Dec-26 | 4,774 | 5,093 | +319 | +6.68% |
| Mar-27 | 4,854 | 5,170 | +316 | +6.51% |
| May-27 | 4,880 | 5,192 | +312 | +6.39% |
The stronger performance of the deferred contracts indicates that traders expanded bullish positioning beyond the nearby delivery month, reflecting growing concerns over medium-term supply rather than only short-term market conditions.
Trading activity also strengthened. Total ICE New York volume increased to 48,507 contracts, up from 43,445 contracts on Tuesday, representing an 11.7% increase. September remained the most actively traded contract with 24,815 lots, followed by December (12,660 lots) and March (6,361 lots).
London Cocoa (ICE Europe)
London cocoa futures closely mirrored New York's performance, with gains exceeding 6% across the first five delivery months. The move was exceptionally consistent across the curve, highlighting broad market participation.
| Contract | 23-Jun | 24-Jun | Change | Change % |
| Jul-26 | 3,488 | 3,717 | +229 | +6.57% |
| Sep-26 | 3,502 | 3,736 | +234 | +6.68% |
| Dec-26 | 3,569 | 3,802 | +233 | +6.53% |
| Mar-27 | 3,637 | 3,870 | +233 | +6.41% |
| May-27 | 3,652 | 3,879 | +227 | +6.22% |
Market participation strengthened further in London, where total trading volume rose to 50,973 contracts, compared with 44,591 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 14.3%. September led trading activity with 17,595 contracts, followed by December (11,691) and March (8,599), confirming that buying interest was concentrated in the benchmark forward delivery months.
Supply Concerns Continue to Support the Market
Market sentiment remained firmly supported by growing uncertainty surrounding the 2026/27 West African crop. Dealers reported that recent gains were fuelled by indications that production from the region's main crop could be significantly lower, with El Niño weather conditions adding to concerns over crop development.
Adding to the bullish tone, Ivory Coast has reportedly temporarily halted forward export sales for the 2026/27 crop while authorities assess production prospects. The move reflects increasing uncertainty over future bean availability and has reinforced concerns throughout the supply chain.
Persistent heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast has also become an immediate concern. Flooded roads have restricted farmers' access to plantations and export infrastructure, slowing the movement of beans. Prolonged wet conditions further increase the risk of black pod disease, which can reduce yields if excessive moisture continues during crop development.
Beyond the current season, weather forecasts remain supportive for prices. Japan's Meteorological Agency recently confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed across the equatorial Pacific. Historically, El Niño episodes are associated with hotter and drier conditions in West Africa during key stages of cocoa development, increasing the risk of lower yields. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently estimates a 67% probability of a Super El Niño developing this year, adding another layer of uncertainty to medium-term production prospects.
