Cocoa Market Balances Strong Ivory Coast Arrivals Against Rising Weather Risks (22 June 2026)
Cocoa futures extended their recovery on Monday, with September New York cocoa trading near 4,620 USD/ton, up roughly 12% from the early-June lows around 4,100 USD/ton. Despite the strong rebound, prices remain approximately 55% below the all-time highs recorded in 2024, reflecting the market's ongoing transition from extreme supply concerns toward a more balanced outlook. Technical indicators show momentum remains positive, although the pace of the rally has begun to moderate as traders assess new fundamental developments.
The most significant bearish development came from Ivory Coast, where exporters reported that cumulative cocoa arrivals reached 1.883 million metric tons as of June 21, representing an 18% increase year-on-year. Weekly deliveries totaled approximately 29,000 tons, with 9,000 tons arriving in Abidjan and 20,000 tons in San Pedro. However, the headline growth rate is somewhat inflated by a statistical base effect. Reuters noted that during the same period last year, the Coffee and Cocoa Council revised cumulative arrivals downward from approximately 1.659 million tons to 1.595 million tons, reducing the comparison base. As a result, part of the current 18% year-on-year increase reflects that downward adjustment rather than solely stronger physical deliveries this season. Nevertheless, arrivals remain significantly ahead of last year's pace and continue to confirm robust bean flows.
The strong arrival data strengthens expectations that Ivory Coast's 2025/26 cocoa production will recover significantly from the previous two seasons. Higher arrivals suggest improved bean availability throughout the supply chain and reinforce projections that global cocoa supplies are gradually rebuilding. While the 18% growth figure should be viewed in the context of last year's downward revision, the overall trend remains clearly positive for supply. From a market perspective, arrivals approaching 1.9 million tons before the end of June represent a substantial recovery and remain one of the strongest arguments for a more comfortable global supply situation heading into the next crop year.
Cocoa Intel
Counterbalancing the positive supply news, cocoa farmers across several producing regions warned that above-average rainfall and persistent cloud cover are creating concerns about flooding, excessive humidity, and disease pressure. In some areas, rainfall during the past week was reported to be more than 100% above the five-year average, while sunshine remained limited. Farmers indicated that if these conditions continue, flooding and fungal diseases could negatively affect the final phase of the April-to-August mid-crop.
The weather concerns are particularly important because they emerge at a time when the market has become increasingly confident about supply recovery. Excessive moisture can increase the risk of black pod disease and other fungal infections, potentially reducing yields and affecting bean quality. While rainfall is generally beneficial for the development of the upcoming October-to-March main crop, sustained wet conditions could quickly shift market attention back toward production risks.
Cocoa Intel
The market is therefore facing two competing narratives. On one side, arrivals running 18% ahead of last season provide clear evidence that physical supply conditions are improving and remain bearish for prices. On the other side, weather developments introduce uncertainty regarding how much of that production recovery can ultimately be realized. If heavy rains persist through July, traders may begin to assign a greater risk premium to weather-related disruptions.
