Cocoa Prices Recover, but Improved Weather Outlook May Cap Further Upside (19 May 2026)

On 19 May 2026, cocoa futures rebounded strongly after the sharp liquidation seen in the previous session. New York July cocoa opened at 3,769 and traded steadily higher throughout the day, reaching an intraday high of 3,958 before settling at 3,907, up 116 points, or 3.1%, from the prior settlement. London July cocoa followed a similar pattern, opening at £2,848, climbing to a high of £2,994, and closing at £2,963, an increase of £88 per tonne, or 3.1%.

Weather

Recent weather forecasts continue to call for widespread and significant rainfall across the principal cocoa-producing regions of West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Forecast models indicate that many growing areas are expected to receive between 75 mm and 150 mm of precipitation over the next several days, with localized totals exceeding 130 mm in central and western producing zones. The heaviest rainfall is projected across the western belt of Côte d’Ivoire, including key producing areas around Daloa, Man, and San Pedro, as well as southern and central Ghana.

This rainfall pattern is broadly favorable for cocoa crop development. Soil moisture levels are expected to improve materially, supporting pod filling and reducing plant stress during the latter stages of the mid-crop. Adequate precipitation at this time of year is particularly important for sustaining bean size and overall yields, especially after periods of irregular rainfall earlier in the season. The improved moisture profile should also support the development of the early main crop for the 2026/27 season by promoting flowering and cherelle formation.

In addition to rainfall, temperatures across the region are forecast to remain generally moderate, mostly in the mid-20s to low-30s Celsius. Combined with increased cloud cover, these conditions should reduce evapotranspiration and further enhance moisture retention. The overall weather setup therefore points to a more supportive agronomic environment than the market faced during much of the previous season.

Futures Performance

On 19 May 2026, cocoa futures staged a sharp recovery following the broad-based liquidation observed on 18 May. Both the New York and London markets rebounded materially, with gains distributed across the entire forward curve. The recovery indicates that the previous session's selloff was driven largely by temporary position liquidation rather than a structural deterioration in market fundamentals. Prices recovered approximately half of the prior day’s losses, suggesting that underlying supply concerns and tight physical availability remain supportive.

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, July 2026 cocoa rose from a 18 May close of 3,768 to a 19 May close of 3,909, an increase of 141 points or 3.7%. Similar gains were recorded across deferred contracts, with September 2026 rising from 3,847 to 3,987 (+140 points), December 2026 advancing from 3,937 to 4,074 (+137 points), and March 2027 increasing from 3,984 to 4,124 (+140 points). The consistency of gains across maturities confirms that buying interest was broad and systematic rather than concentrated in the nearby contract.

The nearly uniform increase across the New York curve demonstrates that the market continues to assign a significant weather and supply risk premium to future deliveries. Despite the recovery, prices remain below the levels seen on 15 May, indicating that investor sentiment is still cautious. However, the ability of the market to rebound quickly suggests that commercial users and speculative participants were willing to re-enter long positions after the correction.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures mirrored the New York rebound. July 2026 increased from a 18 May close of 2,869 to a 19 May close of 2,952, a gain of £83 per tonne or 2.9%. September 2026 rose from 2,857 to 2,941 (+£84), December 2026 climbed from 2,883 to 2,960 (+£77), and March 2027 advanced from 2,917 to 2,993 (+£76). The deferred structure also strengthened, confirming that the recovery was not isolated to prompt delivery but reflected a broader reassessment of market value.

The London curve gained slightly less in percentage terms than New York, which may reflect currency effects and some residual caution in European trading. Nevertheless, the synchronized recovery across all contract months indicates that market participants continue to view the medium-term supply outlook as fundamentally tight, particularly given ongoing uncertainty around West African production and global stock levels.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

EFP, EFS, and spread volumes indicate that the 19 May rebound was driven by substantial commercial and institutional participation rather than speculative buying alone.

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, EFP volume totaled 244 lots and EFS volume reached 203 lots, confirming continued use of futures for physical and swap-related hedging. Spread activity was particularly strong at 23,712 lots, equal to roughly 63% of total volume. This high proportion shows that much of the day's activity involved rolling positions and adjusting calendar spreads across the curve.

London Cocoa (C)

In London, EFP activity was significantly higher at 1,210 lots, while EFS volume reached 309 lots. Spread volume totaled 20,281 lots, representing approximately 66% of total trading. This elevated level of spread turnover highlights active commercial hedging and strategic repositioning.

US–UK July Spread

$3,909 − (£2952 x 1.339$/£) =$-44ton (up from $-85)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

New York trading activity declined sharply on 19 May to 37,895 lots, down from 53,932 lots on 18 May. This followed a temporary increase in volume during the previous session's liquidation. Open interest rose to 193,833 contracts on 18 May after falling to 192,425 on 15 May, indicating that new positions were added during the selloff. Final open interest for 19 May was not yet published.

London Cocoa (C)

London trading activity also moderated on 19 May, declining to 30,716 lots from 34,331 lots on 18 May. Open interest increased to 210,656 contracts on 18 May, reversing part of the decline seen earlier in the week. This suggests that the market attracted fresh participation during the recent correction.

Both New York and London recorded rising open interest on 18 May, indicating that the sharp selloff was accompanied by new position creation rather than only long liquidation. On 19 May, prices rebounded while trading volumes eased, suggesting that the recovery was driven by selective short covering and renewed buying rather than aggressive new speculative inflows.

The combination of elevated open interest and a broad price rebound supports the view that market participants remain actively engaged and that the structural outlook for cocoa remains fundamentally supportive.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Cocoa Market Outlook for Wednesday

The most likely scenario for Wednesday is continued consolidation above 3,900, followed by an attempt to test resistance at 3,950. If buying interest remains firm and the market breaks above this level, prices could extend toward 4,000 and potentially 4,050. Momentum indicators support this view: RSI has stabilized in neutral territory, MACD is improving, and stochastic indicators are turning higher, suggesting that short-term momentum remains constructive.

Support is located at 3,880 to 3,900. As long as prices hold above this zone, the rebound remains intact and the market is likely to continue grinding higher. A break below 3,880 would indicate that the recovery is losing strength and could trigger a pullback toward 3,820 to 3,850.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.