Cocoa Slides as Technical Selling Dominates Market Sentiment (18 May 2026)
• July New York cocoa fell 262 points, or 6.5%, to 3,768, while July London cocoa dropped £163, or 5.4%, to 2,869, extending the market's sharp correction.
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.663 million metric tonnes as of May 17, up 1.3% year-on-year.
• Ivory Coast grindings rose 22% year-on-year in April to 46,578 tonnes.
• Below-average rainfall across key cocoa-growing regions in Ivory Coast could reduce the size of the mid-crop, Reuters reported.
On 18 May 2026, cocoa futures extended their sharp decline in both New York and London, with heavy selling pressure across the entire forward curve. July New York cocoa (CC Jul-26) closed at 3,768, down 262 points, or 6.5%, from the previous session, while July London cocoa (C Jul-26) closed at 2,869, down £163, or 5.4%. The selloff was accompanied by significantly higher trading volume on both exchanges, indicating aggressive long liquidation and broad institutional repositioning. Despite the sharp decline, prices stabilized late in the session, suggesting that selling pressure began to ease after a wave of forced liquidation.
Ivory Coast Cocoa Port Deliveries
According to Reuters, Ivory Coast's cumulative cocoa arrivals for the 2025/26 season reached 1.663 million metric tonnes as of 17 May, up 1.3% from the same period last year. Weekly deliveries totaled 33,000 tonnes, compared with 22,000 tonnes during the corresponding week of the previous season.
Ivory Coast April Grindings
According to Reuters, Ivory Coast's domestic cocoa grindings rose 22% year-on-year in April to 46,578 metric tonnes, based on data from the exporters' association GEPEX.
Cumulative grindings for the 2025/26 season reached 381,349 metric tonnes by the end of April, up 2.1% year-on-year. The increase indicates that local processors continue to operate at high utilization rates and that industrial demand for cocoa beans remains robust despite elevated price volatility.
GEPEX includes several of the country's largest processors, including Barry Callebaut, Olam Food Ingredients, and Cargill. Ivory Coast has installed grinding capacity of approximately 750,000 metric tonnes and is one of the world's leading cocoa processing hubs alongside the Netherlands.
Cocoa Intel
Weather Conditions in Ivory Coast
According to Reuters, below-average rainfall across most cocoa-growing regions in Ivory Coast could reduce the size of the 2025/26 mid-crop.
Farmers reported that rainfall was below the five-year average in several major producing areas. In Soubre, rainfall totaled 25.6 mm, which was 8.6 mm below normal. In Daloa, only 6.6 mm of rain was recorded, representing a deficit of 16.9 mm. Producers in Abengourou, Agboville, Divo, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro also cited irregular rainfall and warned that continued dryness could lead to smaller bean sizes and lower yields.
Some farmers indicated that insufficient moisture could cause the mid-crop to end earlier than usual, potentially tightening supplies from July onward. This introduces a supportive medium-term risk to the market.
Cocoa IntelFutures Performance
On 18 May 2026, cocoa futures extended the sharp selloff that was already evident on 15 May, with both New York and London markets posting materially lower closes across the entire forward curve. The decline was broad-based and highly uniform, indicating a continuation of systematic long liquidation rather than isolated weakness in one specific delivery month. July New York cocoa settled at 3,791, down 211 points on the day, while July London cocoa settled at 2,875, down 159 points.
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Contract | 15-May | 18-May | Change (pts) | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 4,030 | 3,768 | -262 | -6.50% |
| Sep-26 | 4,109 | 3,847 | -262 | -6.38% |
| Dec-26 | 4,208 | 3,937 | -271 | -6.44% |
| Mar-27 | 4,255 | 3,984 | -271 | -6.37% |
| May-27 | 4,278 | 4,012 | -266 | -6.22% |
The July 2026 contract declined 262 points from 4,030 to 3,768, representing a 6.5% loss in a single trading session. Similar declines occurred across the curve, with December 2026 and March 2027 each dropping 271 points.
The nearly identical percentage declines across all contract months demonstrate a highly synchronized selloff. This indicates aggressive institutional liquidation rather than a contract-specific adjustment. The market repriced the entire forward curve lower by approximately 6.2% to 6.5%, reflecting a substantial reduction in bullish expectations.
London Cocoa (C)
| Contract | 15-May | 18-May | Change (£/t) | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 3,032 | 2,869 | -163 | -5.38% |
| Sep-26 | 3,036 | 2,857 | -179 | -5.90% |
| Dec-26 | 3,074 | 2,883 | -191 | -6.21% |
| Mar-27 | 3,105 | 2,917 | -188 | -6.05% |
| May-27 | 3,118 | 2,936 | -182 | -5.84% |
London cocoa futures mirrored the pronounced weakness in New York. July 2026 fell 163 pounds to 2,869, while December 2026 recorded the largest decline, dropping 191 pounds or 6.2%. All major contracts lost between 5.4% and 6.2%.
The larger declines in the middle of the curve suggest particularly strong selling pressure in deferred contracts. However, the broad uniformity of losses confirms that the market was undergoing a global repricing rather than reacting to isolated short-term supply developments.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| EFP | 953 |
| EFS | 112 |
| Spread Volume | 29,901 |
| Total Volume | 53,932 |
| Spread % of Total Volume | 55.4% |
Commercial hedging was very strong, with 953 EFP contracts indicating active conversion of futures positions into physical cocoa transactions. The 112 EFS contracts show additional participation from OTC and swap-related counterparties.
Spread volume reached 29,901 contracts, representing 55.4% of total trading. This indicates that more than half of all activity was driven by rolling and restructuring positions across the forward curve.
London Cocoa (C)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| EFP | 495 |
| EFS | 0 |
| Spread Volume | 22,442 |
| Total Volume | 34,331 |
| Spread % of Total Volume | 65.4% |
Commercial hedging was also significant in London, with 495 EFP contracts reflecting active use of the futures market by physical participants.
No EFS transactions were reported, indicating minimal OTC swap-related activity.
Spread volume totaled 22,442 contracts, accounting for 65.4% of total volume. Nearly two-thirds of all trades were spread-based, highlighting intense curve positioning and rolling activity.
US–UK July Spread
$3,768 − (£2869 x 1.343$/£) =$-85ton (down from $-8.6)
Volume and Open Interest
New York Cocoa (CC)
| Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 12-May-2026 | 64,225 | 194,369 |
| 13-May-2026 | 57,164 | 193,373 |
| 14-May-2026 | 42,437 | 193,330 |
| 15-May-2026 | 41,124 | 192,425 |
| 18-May-2026 | 53,932 | Pending |
Trading activity declined steadily from 64,225 contracts on 12 May to 41,124 contracts on 15 May, then rebounded sharply to 53,932 contracts on 18 May as the market sold off aggressively. This surge in volume confirms a substantial increase in participation during the decline.
Open interest fell from 194,369 contracts on 12 May to 192,425 contracts on 15 May, indicating that positions were being liquidated. The downward trend in open interest suggests that existing longs were exiting the market rather than new speculative positions being established.
The combination of declining open interest and sharply higher volume is consistent with large-scale long liquidation and a decisive reduction in bullish exposure.
London Cocoa (C)
| Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 12-May-2026 | 36,519 | 212,094 |
| 13-May-2026 | 35,979 | 212,151 |
| 14-May-2026 | 28,151 | 208,285 |
| 15-May-2026 | 24,470 | 208,964 |
| 18-May-2026 | 34,331 | Pending |
London trading volume declined from 36,519 contracts on 12 May to 24,470 contracts on 15 May before rising sharply to 34,331 contracts on 18 May. This 40% increase in volume confirms renewed institutional activity during the selloff.
Open interest remained above 208,000 contracts but showed a broader downward trend from over 212,000 contracts earlier in the week. This indicates that the market was reducing overall positioning rather than building substantial new exposure.
The rebound in volume alongside declining open interest is consistent with long liquidation and active hedging by commercial participants.
Exchange Trading Volume
| Market | 15-May-2026 | 18-May-2026 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (NY Cocoa) | 2,659,016 | 2,662,276 | 3,260 | 0.12% |
| UK (London Cocoa) | 832,969 | 574,219 | -258,750 | -31.06% |
The sharp decline in London cocoa exchange stocks does not necessarily indicate that physical cocoa is scarce. Rather, it shows that certified inventories have become highly concentrated and can be withdrawn quickly by a small number of market participants.
With 36,750 metric tonnes of valid stocks on 15 May 2026, more than 96% were held in Antwerp and Amsterdam. This concentration means that a few merchants or processors can remove a significant portion of exchange stocks in a short period, causing large percentage declines without implying a broad shortage in the global cocoa market.
The warrant breakdown further suggests that not all listed inventories were immediately available for delivery. Some lots were expired, non-tenderable, or suspended, reducing the effective deliverable supply below the headline stock figure.
The most likely explanation is that commercial participants cancelled warrants and moved beans from exchange warehouses into the physical market, either for processing or for off-exchange storage. In other words, cocoa was transferred out of the certified exchange system rather than disappearing from the supply chain.
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa IntelCocoa Market Outlook for Tuesday
On Tuesday, the most likely outcome is a technical rebound after the sharp selloff seen over the previous sessions. July New York cocoa appears to have found short-term support around 3,760, and the market is showing signs that selling pressure is easing. As a result, prices are expected to trade higher, with the most probable range between 3,760 and 3,850 and a likely close in the 3,820 to 3,850 area. This move would be driven primarily by short covering and bargain buying rather than a change in the broader bearish trend. If buying momentum strengthens and the market breaks above 3,850, the recovery could extend toward 3,900. Conversely, if support at 3,760 fails, selling may resume and push prices toward 3,650 to 3,700. Overall, the highest-probability scenario is a modest rebound and consolidation after the recent aggressive liquidation.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
