Ivory Coast Sees Cocoa Production Recovery in 2025/26 Season
Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator is projecting a significant recovery in national cocoa production during the 2025/26 season, with total output expected to reach approximately 2.0–2.1 million tonnes. If achieved, this would represent the first meaningful production increase in three seasons for the world’s largest cocoa producer.
The improved outlook follows two difficult years for the sector, during which adverse weather conditions, ageing tree stock, and the spread of swollen shoot disease contributed to sharply lower output across key producing regions. Higher cocoa prices over the past two seasons appear to have improved farmer economics considerably, allowing growers to increase fertilizer application, invest more heavily in plantation maintenance, and improve field management practices.
According to the regulator, cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports had already exceeded 1.7 million tonnes by early May, indicating stronger mid-season flows compared with recent years. Market participants have also reported that substantial physical cocoa inventories remain available inland, with some producers and exporters previously delaying sales while waiting for more favorable market pricing conditions.
The production estimate is notably above earlier market expectations and could contribute to a more balanced global cocoa supply outlook if favorable weather conditions persist through the remainder of the crop cycle. A larger Ivorian crop would likely ease some of the extreme supply tightness that has characterized the global cocoa market over the past two years and may eventually contribute to improved nearby physical availability and warehouse inflows.
However, despite the stronger current-season outlook, attention is increasingly shifting toward risks surrounding the start of the next main crop. Early field observations reportedly indicate weaker pod counts and less robust flowering activity compared with the same period last year. Dry weather conditions in parts of the producing belt have also raised concerns regarding pod survival and overall crop development heading into the next production cycle.
As a result, while the market may begin pricing a degree of near-term supply normalization, uncertainty surrounding West African weather patterns and structural production challenges continues to support elevated longer-term volatility across the cocoa complex.
Source: Reuters
