Coffee Futures Advance as Technical Buying Returns and Supply Concerns Persist (20 July 2026)
Coffee futures opened the week higher on both sides of the Atlantic, supported by renewed speculative buying, tight certified inventories and persistent concerns about weather conditions in major producing regions.
Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US recorded the stronger performance. The September contract closed 4.25 cents, or approximately 1.33%, higher at 324.55 cents per pound. During the session, the contract traded within a wide range of 315.40 to 327.05 cents per pound.
September initially fell below 320 cents and reached its session low during the first part of trading. Buying interest subsequently returned, reversing the decline and pushing the contract above its first technical resistance area. The market has now advanced for two consecutive sessions, accumulating gains of 11.95 cents, or approximately 3.8%.
Trading activity nevertheless remained restrained. New York volume reached approximately 27,400 contracts, the lowest level recorded during the previous 11 trading sessions. Market participants appeared increasingly cautious following the more aggressive positioning recently undertaken by large speculative funds.
Higher margin requirements and the approaching transition from the September contract to later delivery months also encouraged some participants to reduce exposure or remain on the sidelines. Although the formal rollover period is still more than a month away, investors have already begun transferring positions.
The September–December spread narrowed to 15.10 cents from 16.50 cents in the previous session, while the September–March spread contracted to 21.80 cents. The narrowing structure suggests that part of the recent pressure on nearby prices may be related to early position management rather than a material improvement in available supply.
Technical indicators remain mixed. Analysts at Economies.com noted that coffee prices had temporarily lost upward momentum and could experience additional corrective or sideways trading. However, the market’s ability to remain above major support levels continues to support a constructive short- and medium-term outlook.
After recovering above 320 cents, arabica may now attempt to establish a new upward trading channel above the 325-cent area. Immediate resistance is situated near 329.27, 333.98 and 340.92 cents per pound, while support is seen around 317.62, 310.68 and 305.97 cents.
A sustained move through the 333.60-cent region could expose the psychologically important 350-cent barrier. Conversely, failure to hold the recently recovered levels could result in another period of consolidation.
Certified arabica stocks at ICE warehouses continued to decline and remained close to 330,000 bags. The reduction extended a prolonged sequence of daily stock withdrawals, while no coffee had been awaiting certification for several consecutive sessions. The persistent decline reinforces concerns regarding the limited volume of immediately deliverable coffee available to the futures market.
London Robusta Records Limited Gains
Robusta coffee futures on ICE Futures Europe also closed higher, although gains in the nearby September position were modest.
September robusta increased by $7, or 0.18%, to settle at $3,884 per tonne. The contract traded between $3,815 and $3,903 but was unable to maintain a position above the $3,900 benchmark.
November robusta gained $22 to close at $3,851 per tonne. The September–November spread narrowed to $33 per tonne, reflecting a reduction in the premium commanded by the nearby contract.
Trading in London was predominantly technical and displayed less volatility than recent sessions. The market largely followed the positive direction established by arabica futures in New York, while many of the principal supply concerns appeared to have already been incorporated into prices.
Certified robusta inventories increased to 4,239 lots, their highest level in approximately three and a half months. Nevertheless, the global robusta market remains sensitive to the seasonal reduction in supply from Asian producers.
Market participants continue to monitor conditions in Vietnam, where elevated temperatures and potential limitations on water availability could affect crop development. The current period corresponds with the off-season in several Asian origins, resulting in less consistent spot availability and helping nearby prices maintain support.
The price differential between New York arabica and London robusta widened to approximately 148.38 cents per pound from 144.45 cents in the previous session.
Brazilian Harvest and Exports Remain in Focus
Brazil’s harvest continues to progress, although activity in some producing areas is reportedly slower than in previous seasons. In the region covered by Expocacer in the Cerrado of Minas Gerais, harvesting had reached approximately 51%.
Despite the harvest’s advance, selling activity in Brazil’s domestic physical market remained limited. Producers continued to show reluctance to sell, and prices for good-quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais were estimated at around R$1,830 per 60-kilogram bag.
Recent increases in New York futures have not been fully transferred to Brazilian physical prices. Traders nevertheless believe the recovery offers opportunities for producers and commercial participants to fix prices or establish hedging positions.
Brazilian export data continued to indicate slower shipments compared with the previous year.
According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, Cecafé, shipments registered through July 20 reached approximately 1.347 million bags. The total consisted of:
- 868,147 bags of arabica coffee;
- 316,198 bags of robusta coffee; and
- 162,812 bags of soluble coffee.
The daily shipment rate stood at approximately 67,357 bags. Based on the pace recorded during the month, July exports were projected at around 2.36 million bags, approximately 13% below the 2.73 million bags shipped in July 2025.
Requests for certificates of origin totaled approximately 1.78 million bags, down 4.2% from the comparable period. These included 1.106 million bags of arabica, 427,088 bags of robusta and 247,205 bags of soluble coffee.
Separate data from Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade showed that green coffee exports reached 1.373 million bags during the first 13 working days of July. The daily average of 105,615 bags was 9.5% below the corresponding period of the previous year.
Export revenue reached approximately $445.2 million, equivalent to a daily average of $34.3 million. The average declared export price was $324.23 per bag.
Differences between the Cecafé and Secex figures reflect their separate reporting methodologies, product coverage and registration periods.
Weather Risks Support Market Attention
The session produced few major new fundamental developments, but existing supply and weather concerns continued to underpin sentiment.
In Colombia’s Quindío department, producers have reported high temperatures and low humidity. Such conditions can increase the risk of coffee berry borer infestations, while declining river flows may threaten the availability of water for farms and the development of the country’s second crop.
Farmers are also dealing with elevated fertilizer expenses and volatile coffee prices. Local producers warned that the combination of heat, low humidity and irregular rainfall could reduce both the volume and quality of harvested coffee.
In Brazil, the National Institute of Meteorology maintained warnings for severe weather in southern states. Rio Grande do Sul faced a risk of storms, hail, flooding and crop damage, while winds of up to 60 kilometres per hour were possible in Santa Catarina, Paraná and southern Mato Grosso do Sul.
By contrast, dry weather remained the principal concern across portions of the Central-West and Southeast, including northern São Paulo, western Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Tocantins, western Bahia and northern Mato Grosso do Sul.
São Paulo’s Civil Defense also warned of an elevated fire risk in central, western and eastern areas of the state. Atmospheric blocking was expected to prolong the dry spell across much of the region.
These weather developments are likely to become increasingly relevant as participants assess the outlook for upcoming crops in Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia. Concerns surrounding high temperatures, irregular rainfall and the possible expansion of El Niño-related effects remain important sources of risk.
Currency movements had little direct impact on Monday’s futures session, despite the continued weakening of the US dollar against the Brazilian real.
Broader Coffee Industry Continues to Expand
Outside the futures market, Nims, a Lavazza Group company specialising in direct coffee capsule sales and water microfiltration systems, reported continued growth during 2025.
The company generated net revenue of €132.5 million, more than 6% above the previous year, and invested €5.5 million during the period. Nims added approximately 40,000 new customers, more than 5,000 above its 2024 result.
Its network expanded to more than 3,500 Personal Shoppers, while capsule distribution increased by 3% to more than 301 million units.
The figures indicate that consumer demand for portioned coffee products remained resilient even as the international coffee market continued to contend with elevated raw-material prices and constrained supply.
For the immediate futures outlook, technical positioning is likely to remain the dominant influence. However, declining certified arabica inventories, slower Brazilian exports and weather uncertainty across several major origins continue to provide fundamental support.
Arabica’s ability to consolidate above 320–325 cents will determine whether the latest recovery develops into a more sustained upward trend. In London, the $3,900-per-tonne region remains the first important test for nearby robusta futures.
