Coffee futures retreat as technical selling outweighs weather concerns (1 September 2026)
Coffee futures opened September under pressure, with both Arabica and Robusta reversing early gains. Technical selling dominated the session, while expectations of fresh Brazilian supply outweighed growing concern about weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam.
Arabica recovers after falling below 300 cents
December Arabica opened at 313.45 cents per pound and advanced to 315.55 before selling intensified. Prices subsequently fell through the psychological 300-cent level, reaching 299.20 cents, but buying interest emerged at the lows and helped the contract recover to 309.45 cents.
The December position finished 205 points lower, equivalent to a close-to-close decline of approximately 0.66%. Nevertheless, the 1,635-point trading range reflected considerable intraday volatility. Approximately 37,000 contracts changed hands.
March Arabica settled 165 points lower at 297.65 cents after trading between 289.00 and 302.90 cents per pound.
The recovery from below 300 cents suggests that buyers remain active around this level, although short-term momentum continues to favour sellers. December resistance is indicated at 316.93, followed by 324.42 and 333.28 cents. Support is located near 300.58, with lower levels at 291.72 and 284.23 cents.
Robusta falls 1.93% in London
Robusta recorded the steeper closing decline. November futures began the session at $3,542 per tonne and briefly reached $3,562 before coming under sustained selling pressure. The contract fell as low as $3,405 and eventually settled at $3,461 per tonne, down $68, or 1.93%.
January Robusta declined by $64 to $3,454 per tonne. November therefore retained a modest $7 premium over January, leaving the nearby market in slight backwardation.
Trading activity was relatively strong, with 18,090 November contracts and 11,760 January contracts exchanged. Prices remain close to their weakest levels in almost three months.
The pressure in London reflected renewed speculative selling as well as expectations that the completion of Brazil’s harvest will replenish available stocks. The sharp recovery from the session low, however, showed that some buying interest remains present at lower price levels.
Brazilian physical activity remains subdued
Trading in Brazil’s physical coffee market was limited, with producers reluctant to accept prevailing bids. Indicative prices for quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais remained close to R$1,930 per bag.
The weaker US dollar against the Brazilian real had little visible influence on futures during the session, as technical signals and supply expectations remained the main drivers.
Cecafé reported that Brazilian shipments had reached 1,707,729 bags by 24 August, a pace described as 9.3% lower. The total comprised:
- 1,045,948 bags of Arabica
- 499,501 bags of Robusta
- 162,280 bags of soluble coffee
The reported daily average stood at 71,155 bags.
Cold front brings weather back into focus
A cold front is forecast to advance across southern and southeastern Brazil. The heaviest rainfall is expected over São Paulo on Saturday, 5 September, continuing into Sunday, 6 September. The system should also reach coffee-producing areas of Minas Gerais.
The effect on coffee will depend on the intensity and distribution of the rainfall. For now, the forecast is adding uncertainty as Brazil approaches the end of its harvest and the market begins paying closer attention to conditions affecting the next production cycle.
El Niño is also becoming a more prominent subject in market discussions. Vietnam’s coffee production could increase modestly in 2026/27 as replanted areas reach more stable productivity. However, the Central Highlands remain vulnerable to adverse weather during important stages of crop development, making the possible emergence of El Niño a significant risk to that outlook.
Japanese stocks remain below January levels
Green coffee inventories held in Japan increased slightly to 124,297 tonnes at the end of June, compared with 123,500 tonnes in May. Despite the monthly increase, stocks remained 5.7% below the 131,840 tonnes recorded in January.
Brazilian-origin inventories declined from 50,267 tonnes in January to 43,128 tonnes in June, a reduction of approximately 14.2%. Colombian stocks fell more sharply, declining from 17,250 to 13,059 tonnes, or about 24.3%.
The figures indicate that availability in Japan remains comparatively lean despite the modest improvement recorded in June.