Coffee Futures Slide as Brazil’s Export Count Rises, but Supply Concerns Remain (26 August 2026)
Coffee futures fell sharply on Wednesday as aggressive speculative selling and the triggering of technical stops erased part of the strong gains recorded earlier in the week. The decline came despite persistently low certified stocks and continuing uncertainty surrounding crop quality and weather in Brazil.
December arabica closed 13.35 cents, or 3.98%, lower at 322.15 cents per pound. The contract opened at 332.05 cents, reached a session high of 333.05 cents and subsequently dropped to 319.80 cents. Although several technical levels were broken during the decline, the market recovered sufficiently to remain above the important 320-cent support at the close.
Trading activity remained highly volatile. During the first three sessions of the week, December arabica moved within a 26.15-cent range, between 319.80 and 345.95 cents, with an average daily variation of 16.88 cents. The repeated triggering of buying and selling stops has increasingly caused coffee to behave like a financial asset, with short-term fund positioning exerting a strong influence over daily price movements.
The stronger US dollar against the Brazilian real also contributed to the negative tone by making dollar-denominated coffee more attractive to Brazilian sellers.
Despite the decline in outright prices, the December-March spread widened slightly to 14.05 cents. The continued premium for nearby coffee indicates that the market remains concerned about immediate availability. Certified arabica stocks declined by another 825 bags to 224,617 bags, while only 1,920 bags were awaiting certification.
Robusta also recorded significant losses in London, closing 2.08% lower at US$3,614 per tonne after trading between US$3,577 and US$3,696. During the first three sessions of the week, robusta covered a US$300-per-tonne range, from US$3,577 to US$3,877, with an average daily variation of approximately US$195.
The November-January spread increased from US$12 to US$16 per tonne, while the November-March premium widened from US$33 to US$40. The price difference between New York arabica and London robusta narrowed to 158.25 cents per pound, compared with 168.05 cents in the previous session.
Brazil’s harvest reaches 87.5%
The coffee harvest among Cooxupé members reached 87.5% by August 21, up from 81.1% one week earlier. However, progress remained behind the 91.3% recorded at the same point last year.
The cooperative’s survey covers southern Minas Gerais, the Cerrado Mineiro, Matas de Minas and the Mogiana region of São Paulo. Cooxupé is present in more than 370 municipalities and represents over 22,000 coffee growers.
Brazil’s 2026/27 arabica harvest is now approaching completion in most producing regions following faster progress in recent weeks. Nevertheless, Cepea reported that fieldwork remained behind the pace observed last year, when harvesting had already ended in most of the areas monitored by the research centre.
Above-average winter rainfall was identified as the principal reason for the delay. The excessive moisture also affected drying conditions and the quality of harvested coffee. According to Cepea, the current crop could produce one of the weakest quality results of recent years, with an elevated proportion of lower-quality beans.
As harvesting enters its final stage, attention is shifting towards the final size of the crop, the pace at which producers commercialise their coffee and the flowering that will determine production in 2027/28.
Weather risks remain present. Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology issued a yellow storm warning covering 507 municipalities in Minas Gerais. Forecasts indicated rainfall of up to 50 millimetres, winds reaching 60 kilometres per hour and the possibility of hail. Southern and southwestern Minas Gerais, Zona da Mata, the Belo Horizonte metropolitan area and the Rio Doce Valley were among the regions that could be affected.
Further rainfall could interfere with the remaining harvesting and drying operations, although sufficient moisture may also contribute to the flowering of the next crop.
Brazilian shipments approach three million bags
Brazilian coffee shipments reached 2,940,606 bags by August 26, according to Cecafé. The total represented an increase of 35.5%, with the average shipment pace reaching approximately 113,000 bags per day.
Arabica accounted for 2,061,087 bags, while robusta shipments reached 652,970 bags. Soluble coffee contributed another 226,549 bags.
Requests for certificates of origin covered 3,082,104 bags, an increase of 20.5%. These included 2,133,699 bags of arabica, 666,954 bags of robusta and 281,451 bags of soluble coffee.
The figures indicate a significant acceleration compared with the preliminary total reported on August 24, when shipments stood at 1,707,729 bags. The stronger export count adds some pressure to the market by suggesting that larger quantities of Brazilian coffee are beginning to move into international channels as the harvest approaches completion.
However, the quality problems reported in arabica-producing regions could limit the availability of better-grade coffee even if Brazil succeeds in increasing its overall export volume.
Peru earns more than US$300 million from coffee exports
Peru exported 782,033 bags of coffee during the first half of 2026, slightly above the 743,463 bags shipped during the same period last year, according to the Peruvian Coffee and Cocoa Chamber.
Export revenue increased from US$303.1 million to US$308.2 million.
A considerable share of the coffee shipped during the first six months came from stocks remaining from the 2025 harvest. Consequently, the first-half export figures should not be interpreted as a direct indication of the size of the 2026 crop. Commercial activity during the second half of the year will provide a clearer assessment of current-crop availability.
Peruvian production for the 2026/27 marketing year is estimated at 4.78 million 60-kilogram bags, virtually unchanged from the previous season. Exports are projected at 4.55 million bags. The United States remains Peru’s largest coffee buyer, accounting for approximately 32% of total exports.
The sector enters this period under President Keiko Fujimori, who was sworn in during July after narrowly winning the second round of the presidential election in June. She became the first woman elected president of Peru.
The country’s National Coffee Action Plan seeks to improve competitiveness, strengthen producer organisations and encourage more sustainable land management by 2030. Its objectives include improving access to credit and technology, expanding soil and plant-nutrition analysis, supporting organic and high-altitude coffee production and increasing domestic consumption.
Angel in Us prepares to return to Indonesia
In the retail market, South Korean coffee chain Angel in Us announced plans to return to Indonesia through a master-franchise agreement with Bogajaya Group.
The agreement will allow the Indonesian company to open its own stores and grant sub-franchises to other operators. The first location is expected to begin operating before the end of the year.
Lotte previously operated Angel in Us and Lotteria outlets directly in Indonesia before withdrawing from the market in 2020. Its planned return reflects continuing investment in coffee consumption and branded café networks across Southeast Asia.