Coffee Markets Hold Firm as Colombia Weather Risk Adds to Supply Uncertainty (20 August 2026)
Coffee futures ended Thursday, August 20, with relatively limited changes despite considerable intraday volatility, as traders balanced improving global supply expectations against fresh weather risks in Colombia, declining Colombian output, tight certified stocks and continuing uncertainty around physical availability.
Arabica coffee in New York finished modestly higher, while London robusta remained almost unchanged. Beneath the relatively quiet closes, however, several fundamental developments are becoming increasingly relevant for the months ahead.
The most immediate concern is Colombia, where exceptionally heavy rainfall is forecast to affect several parts of the country as tropical wave number 38 passes through the region.
Colombia's Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, Ideam, warned that the heaviest rainfall of the week was expected between Thursday, August 20, and Friday, August 21. Conditions are particularly concerning along the Pacific side of the country, including Chocó, Valle del Cauca, Cauca and Nariño, where already saturated soils increase the risk of flash flooding, rapidly rising rivers and localized disruption.
For the coffee market, the important question is not simply how much rain falls nationally, but whether prolonged precipitation reaches producing areas during a period when Colombian supply is already under pressure.
Colombian production data released this week showed a significant slowdown. Output in July fell 23% year on year to 1.06 million 60-kg bags, compared with 1.37 million bags in July 2025 and 1.30 million bags in June.
The National Federation of Coffee Growers attributed the reduction partly to weather-related delays in the harvest.
Production between January and July fell 12% to 6.63 million bags, while exports declined 18% to 6.22 million bags. On a rolling 12-month basis, production was down 13% at 12.07 million bags and exports fell 10% to approximately 11.8 million bags.
The latest rainfall therefore arrives against an already weaker Colombian supply backdrop.
Heavy rain does not automatically translate into lower national production, and the immediate impact will depend on the location, intensity and duration of precipitation. Nevertheless, excessive rainfall can interfere with harvesting, drying and transportation while increasing logistical difficulties in mountainous producing regions.
With Colombian output already running below last year's levels, the market is likely to monitor the next several days closely.
New York Arabica Recovers From Intraday Weakness
ICE Arabica futures finished Thursday slightly higher after a volatile session dominated primarily by technical trading.
December Arabica opened around 328.15 cents per pound before falling to an intraday low of 320.50 cents. Buyers subsequently returned, pushing the contract as high as 332.70 cents before the market settled at 329.30 cents per pound, up 110 points, or approximately 0.34%.
March closed at 315.50 cents, up 80 points.
The approximately 12-cent trading range in December contrasted with the relatively small close-to-close gain, suggesting that neither buyers nor sellers were able to establish decisive control.
Activity was also affected by the final stages of the September contract roll, with attention increasingly shifting toward December.
The developing Colombian weather situation adds another short-term variable to a market already dealing with weaker Colombian production and exports.
Certified Arabica stocks on ICE Futures US declined by another 636 bags to 228,378 bags. Although exchange stocks represent only one component of global coffee availability, inventories at these levels leave the market more sensitive to unexpected disruptions in deliverable supply.
Technically, December Arabica continues to face resistance near 334.50, followed by 339.70 and 346.70 cents per pound. Support is seen around 322.30, 315.30 and 310.10 cents.
The contract therefore remains inside a relatively broad trading structure, with Thursday's recovery preventing a deeper technical deterioration but failing to produce a confirmed upside breakout.
London Robusta Remains Quiet
Robusta futures in London showed even less directional conviction.
September Robusta closed $2 lower at $3,726 per tonne, while November declined $4 to $3,699.
November traded between approximately $3,688 and $3,774 during the session before settling close to unchanged.
The September-November spread stood near $27 per tonne, with September maintaining a modest premium. Trading activity continues to migrate toward November as the nearby contract approaches expiration.
Approximately 5,930 September contracts traded during the session compared with about 13,820 contracts in November.
The market continues to anticipate greater Vietnamese availability later in the year, with new-crop supply expected to become increasingly relevant from November onward. That expectation is helping limit aggressive buying at the front of the curve.
For now, however, the robusta market remains relatively balanced between expectations of improving Asian supply and the limited amount of immediately available new-crop coffee.
A Much Larger Global Surplus Is Being Discussed
The larger bearish argument for coffee continues to come from expectations of substantial supply growth during the 2026/27 season.
Marex currently estimates a global coffee surplus of approximately 10.5 million bags for 2026/27, compared with only around 1.7 million bags in the preceding season.
Global supply is projected at 186.7 million bags, up from 175.7 million bags in 2025/26, while consumption is expected to rise much more slowly from approximately 174.1 million to 176.3 million bags.
If realised, such a balance would represent a significant rebuilding of global availability.
Brazil is central to that outlook.
Hedgepoint Global Markets estimates Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop at approximately 75.8 million bags. Arabica production is projected at 50.2 million bags, sharply above the previous cycle's 37.7 million, while robusta and conilon production is estimated at 25.6 million bags compared with 27 million previously.
The expected Arabica recovery is substantial, although it would remain below Brazil's estimated 54.2-million-bag Arabica crop in 2020/21.
Harvesting is already well advanced across Brazil. In areas served by Cooxupé, progress has exceeded 81%, indicating that an increasing proportion of the crop is moving beyond production risk and toward processing and commercialization.
This improving Brazilian supply outlook remains one of the strongest medium-term constraints on coffee prices.
Brazilian Exports Are Accelerating
Export data are also beginning to reflect greater Brazilian availability.
According to Cecafé figures through August 13, Brazilian coffee shipments during the month had reached approximately 1.16 million bags.
The total included roughly:
- 807,714 bags of Arabica
- 278,157 bags of robusta
- 70,376 bags of soluble coffee
The reported daily shipment pace was significantly stronger than during the corresponding period previously.
Physical trading inside Brazil nevertheless remained subdued on Thursday, with producers showing limited willingness to sell aggressively. Indicative prices for good-quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais were reported around R$1,980 per bag.
This combination is important. Brazil appears capable of providing substantially greater exportable supply, but producer selling behavior and currency movements will continue to influence how quickly that coffee reaches the international market.
Weather Risks Are Becoming More Uneven
Weather developments across producing countries are currently sending mixed signals.
Brazil's main coffee areas are expected to remain predominantly dry in the near term. A colder air mass is forecast to move through south-central Brazil, but current indications do not point to a major weather event affecting the crop.
Colombia faces almost the opposite situation, with excessive rainfall becoming the immediate concern.
Meanwhile, producers in eastern El Salvador are reporting increasing drought stress. High temperatures and irregular rainfall are reportedly affecting younger coffee trees and accelerating cherry maturation in some areas.
Premature maturation can reduce bean size and weight, potentially lowering both productivity and quality.
The impact appears strongest in eastern producing areas, while western and central regions have so far experienced less severe conditions.
None of these developments individually changes the global coffee balance, but collectively they demonstrate that the increasingly comfortable 2026/27 global supply outlook is not uniform across producing origins.